Predicting race pace.

[lagavulin62]

Very simple question that has always bothered me. When predicting the likely pace of a race do you consider all entrants or just those you have marked as likely contenders? I know it's never black and white but just generally speaking and I will concern myself with more specifics to each race later.

[MPRanger]

Originally Posted by lagavulin62

Very simple question that has always bothered me. When predicting the likely pace of a race do you consider all entrants or just those you have marked as likely contenders? I know it's never black and white but just generally speaking and I will concern myself with more specifics to each race later.

Watch out for entries. You never know if #1B isn't in there as a rabbit to set an early pace from which it will persish at the top of the turn but draws another early speed horse into a duel which might benefit the trainer's true choice #1.


You must account for the early pace of non contenders. I like to use Equibase pace and speed figures with beaten lengths at the end.



Equibase pace figures are first call figures. An important point of fact. High early pace numbers associated with a horse who's competetive at the end of it's race are a good clue and most likely a contender. A horse with a fast first call pace number who gets beaten by twelve lengths at the end may not be a contender but can have an effect on the race.

[lagavulin62]

I will implement that info. Thanks.

[ranchwest]

I look at a lot of things, but to answer your question, yes, consider all entries.

A quick and dirty look at pace is to take the top three Quirin speed point horses, add those together. More than 18 is on the high side generally and less than 18 is on the low side generally. Since the rest of the field is not likely to affect the early pace, for this purpose you can ignore those.

[classhandicapper]

For predictions on pace I look primarily at running styles and how consistently the horse shows speed. But you have to make adjustments for distance switches, class changes, field size and be careful of surface switches. Occasionally I’ll also look at post position and rider.

This may be too much work for most people to do manually, but it also helps to keep track of how much speed was in each race for future reference.

If you know a particular field had no speed in it, when those horses come back you’ll know that the lead horse wasn’t necessarily a front runner that earned lead even if the pace was solid. Same in the other direction. If a race was loaded with speed, a few front runners will wind up off the pace and you’ll know why. The fractions will usually be a clue, but they aren’t always consistent with the amount of speed in the race.

It’s tricky to find value because the more extreme the situation the more likely your prediction will be correct, but the more likely everyone else we see it also. So the odds will reflect the probable pace.

[Trackjudge]

Jim Cramer uses the horse's fastest first quarter time as a standard of comparison among all horses in a race.


Yesterday's Belmont Derby was won by #4, Classic Causeway, who had a RS-POS designation of E!2 1 1 1


E! only wins on the lead
2 second fastest quarter in the field
1 fastest half in the field
1 highest Cramer Projected Speed Rating
1 top break rank



The horse with the fastest quarter was #2 , Stolen Base, ps!1 2 4, which designates him as a presser-sustained only. He would not be in a position to contest the pace by his running style. The third fastest early horse, Sy Dog, was a ss 3 3 5, also very late runner.


Classic Causeway looked to get an unopposed lead in the race





There were two highly regarded Euro horses, Nation's Pride( Godolphin, Detori) and Stone Age (Magnier, Tabor, O'Brien, Ryan Moore)


Julian Leparoux put Classic Causeway on the lead and won, paying $55.50 to win.
The two Euro favorites finished second and third.


On the TrackJudge charts Classic Causeway was projected to be on the lead (80% first call lead probability, one of the highest I have ever seen) at all three calls.
The Euro horses had no North American form, so they were not rated in the mix. They went off at 2.4/1 and 2.9/1


If anyone is interested, drop me a line and I can send you a copy of the race chart as viewed from the TJ perspective.


Sample@trackjudge.com

[lagavulin62]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

I look at a lot of things, but to answer your question, yes, consider all entries.

A quick and dirty look at pace is to take the top three Quirin speed point horses, add those together. More than 18 is on the high side generally and less than 18 is on the low side generally. Since the rest of the field is not likely to affect the early pace, for this purpose you can ignore those.

Where are those Quirin numbers located in brisnet ultimate pp’s?

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by lagavulin62

Where are those Quirin numbers located in brisnet ultimate pp’s?

In Quick Plays the horse name is followed by something like "(P3)". That is a running style of "P", presser, and 3 Quirin speed points. I assume the Ultimate PP's use the same setup.

[lagavulin62]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

In Quick Plays the horse name is followed by something like "(P3)". That is a running style of "P", presser, and 3 Quirin speed points. I assume the Ultimate PP's use the same setup.

Oh ok thanks. I just located them. It’s at the bottom in race summary for brisnet. I also found this;

https://www.predictem.com/horse-bett...-speed-points/

So will see how this works.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

In Quick Plays the horse name is followed by something like "(P3)". That is a running style of "P", presser, and 3 Quirin speed points. I assume the Ultimate PP's use the same setup.

Yes, Ultimate is the same, plus, there is a jockey stat for how they do horses of the same running style right below.

Als0, in the last page summary, the RS ans QSP are summarized along with the best pace figs, as Trackjudge mentioned.

[Trackjudge]

Another of Jim Cramer's maxims is the importance of post position. The inside post gives a speed horse an advantage, particularly if the inside horse is faster to the quarter. Things get more interesting when you have a bunch of early horses, and the fastest early horse (E1) is outside the other early types.