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Old 01-14-2019, 01:42 PM   #1
Teach
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New England Patriots vs. Kansas City Chiefs

The weather: Forecast for Kansas City next Sunday evening calls for bitter cold. Not windy, but extremely cold. The temperature, at best, will struggle to reach 20 degrees. There is also snow in the forecast for the preceding day, Saturday. Although similar, this isn’t exactly the same weather-condition scenario that players and fans experienced at Gillette in Sunday afternoon’s Patriots win over the LA Chargers. It should be appreciably colder. I should add to the equation the impact of Saturday’s predicted snow, and the impact of any melting on the Arrowhead turf. I say melting because…

The field: I should note that Arrowhead Stadium has a recently-installed underground heating system that will keep the playing-field surface-temperature at a minimum of 40 degrees. That could make for very slippery conditions (even if the field is covered before game-time). Artificially, the Chiefs create a field-condition that resembles our New England area’s “mud-season” (usually late-winter, early spring). In fact, some homes around have “mud-rooms” that allow family members and guests to take off their boots, sneakers, etc. before entering the main portion of the house.

The impact of playing conditions: In expected conditions like these, the offense has a distinct advantage (all the more reason to control the football). Receivers know exactly where they’re going, i.e., their routes. Ball carriers too have an edge in this sloppy-field scenario.

The footwear:
The players’ cleats must provide traction. Flat-soled shoes will not cut it!

The psychology:
The Patriots surprised even their harshest critics by handily defeating the LA Chargers. I believe it was Patriots best game of the 2018-2019 season. The Patriots must build on that victory. They cannot afford to become complacent. They can’t rest on their laurels. Each player: “Must do his job!” To think that the Patriots are just one win away from yet another trip to the Super Bowl. For some on the Patriots team, it may be their “last hurrah”. For others, quite possibly, their only chance. There must be commitment. The players need to live in the moment. They need to seize the moment. “Carpe Diem!” The start of the game is critical. There can be no let up. Coming from behind in these type of games is difficult. Just ask the Colts.

The coaches:[/B] This AFC title game should be the ultimate football “chess-match”. The 20-year veteran Andy Reid against the “Dean of NFL Coaches,” Bill Belichick. Who said the game of football wasn’t cerebral. The coaches may have designed plays; yet the players must execute. I believe, when all is taken into account, this game shapes up to be a very exciting, hard-fought, contest.

In my next commentary, I’ll dissect the Chiefs vs. Colts match-up. I’ll also single out the key players for both sides. Until then…
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Old 01-14-2019, 03:41 PM   #2
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An update on the Kansas City weather forecast. According to the Weather Channel, snow will now begin on Friday. Saturday looks like a snowy day. A “Norther” that’s coming directly from the Arctic Circle is expected to take cold temps all the way down to the Gulf of Mexico. Kansas City will be lucky to climb out of the teens on Sunday. In a word: frigid. “Run…run…run your team swiftly down the field. Merrily…merrily…merrily…merrily a Super Bowl-team we'll wield."
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Old 01-14-2019, 05:26 PM   #3
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First Quarter:

What immediately catches your attention, on the very first play from scrimmage: how fast the Auburn product, #55, Dee Ford, comes off his left defensive end position to tackle the ball-carrier as he reaches the line of scrimmage. In military tactics, they’d call it a “single envelopment”. He has to be picked up, or he can wreak havoc coming quickly off the left side. #10, Tyreek Hill, is dangerous as punt-returner. He also catches passes. He goes well to his left. Flanker reverse.

The Chiefs QB, Patrick Mahomes II, is “an athlete.” Agile. Mobile. Also, “cocky”. Makes contorted throws…and connects. Great eye-hand coordination. Great delivery, even sidearm. He’ll be much more mobile than Philip Rivers. Can Mahomes be unnerved? Unsettled? Must be pressured. If anything, he tends to throw low. Yet, he threw 50 TDs. However, he threw 12 interceptions (Three against Rams). Beware of his hard-count! Colts did not have much of a pass-rush. In my opinion, the key: Stop Mahomes!

TE, #87, Travis Kelce, is dangerous. He must be guarded. He has a way of getting open. Colts’ zone pass-defense could not stop him. Too many seams. Damien Williams is another weapon in their offensive arsenal. The Colts motto in the first quarter had to be: “Three-and-out.” I believe the game was over in the first quarter. The Colts looked unsettled. Out of sorts. Luck - he’s from Houston, TX – appeared cold. He had some passes batted down. Chiefs ran through Colts “like hot knife through butter”.

End of first quarter, Chiefs gained 185 yards; the Colts, 12 yds. Chiefs, 14; Colts, 0.
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Old 01-14-2019, 06:46 PM   #4
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If you take into account the expected weather conditions, I ask: "Are the Patriots and Chiefs going to put up 57.5 points?" "The Freezer Bowl" between Cincinnati and San Diego back in 1982 combined for 34 points.
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Old 01-15-2019, 06:50 AM   #5
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Latest Kansas City forecast has high temp pegged at 12 degrees. Lower, at game-time. A wind from the NW that features gusts to 10 mph. Some mixed precipitation on Friday, snow on Saturday.

If you're going out to the game from New England, I'd consider getting updated forecasts. The way it looks, it may be tough to get into KC International (about 10 to 15 miles north of downtown Kansas City) on Saturday. Arrowhead is east of the downtown out on Route #70.
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Old 01-15-2019, 07:22 AM   #6
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The like the Chiefs Sunday, the Patriots are the best team in the history of football when they're home at Foxboro, but they can be beaten on the road. They probably have a way of cheating in Gillette stadium. The whole thing with beating the Patriots is the coaching strategy. You have to have good schemes.

It amazes me how teams let the Patriots destroy them with 6 yard passes, when the Patriots don't have any speed threats down field. The Chargers defensive strategy, staying with their deep zone, was idiotic against the Patriots. I would double team Edelman and blitz often. You have to put some pressure on Brady and make them keep a back in for protection, otherwise he keeps throwing those short passes to the running backs.
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Old 01-15-2019, 08:23 AM   #7
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Second Quarter Observations:

The Kansas City Chiefs have four (4) major “weapons,” e.g., Mahomes, Hill, Williams and Watkins. Those four are priority #1 for the Patriots if they are to advance to the Super Bowl in Atlanta. You could say: “It’s the Pats Against Patrick and Company”. Mahomes can’t be allowed to get comfortable. He must be made to feel “self-doubt”. Question himself!


In analysis, the Chiefs continued to steamroll over the Colts in the second quarter. Metaphorically, the Colts were like deer who were “looking into the headlights.” Was it the crowd? The stadium? The aura? The weather? Whatever it was, the Colts weren’t ready when the “opening bell” sounded.

Throughout much of the second quarter the Chiefs continued to “steam-roll” over the Colts. The Colts’ zone coverage wasn’t working. The only thing it did do was to prevent Mahomes from “freelancing on his feet”. If the Patriots go to “man coverage,” Mahomes becomes much more of a threat to run. That will add a further dimension to the Chiefs offense. This isn’t Philip Rivers we’re dealing with. One thing’s clear, Mahomes has a quick release. He’s capable of throwing lasers. Yet, he didn’t seem as effective throwing deep (there weren’t that many).

Further, the Patriots defensive line must be weary of Mahomes cadence, i.e. “hard count”. He was very successful at varying the pitch of his voice. On another note, Tyreek Hill is a threat every time he touches the ball. The Chiefs have designed many plays, both running and passing, to get him involved. He appears to be “a safety valve” on passing plays. Hill may well be the “fastest man” in the NFL. He’s very shifty. Kelce’s “a load”. He reminds me of “a younger Gronk.” Yards after the catch. A human bowling ball. Kelce carries defenders with him. Also, Damien Williams is an effective runner. Sammy Watkins can make unbelievable one-handed catches. Yet, I believe it all boils down to unnerving and stopping Mahomes. He’ll come into the game “cocky.” Some of “the starch” has to be taken out of him.

If there were a Chief’s weakness that became evident for the last few minutes of the First Half. They had a punt blocked. The Colts’ Bernard Cooke blew right past both Darrel Williams and Charcandrick West. The ball was recovered by Zach Pascal in the end zone for a touchdown.

The Colts would get the ball back with 1:40 left in the half. A no-huddle offense. This was the Andrew Luck-led offense that I had expected. Luck was sharp. He completed pass after pass against the Chiefs secondary. The Chiefs were back on their heels. It was, during this time, that it appeared as if the Colts had been given a transfusion. Yet, they simply ran out of time. They settled for a field goal that 23-year veteran Adam Vinatieri missed. It hit the left upright. In all fairness to the former Patriots kicker, his holder didn’t get the ball down and turn the laces, quickly enough. That was a possible 2nd half momentum killer. The Chiefs led 24-7 at the half. For all intents and purposes the game was over at the half, possibly even the first quarter.

I’ll be back later with my Second-Half analysis and the keys to a Patriots victory.
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Old 01-15-2019, 09:31 AM   #8
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The Patriots always try to take away the oppositions main weapon, but even if they double cover Hill, that still gives Mahomes plenty of options with Watkins, Kelce, Williams, and their other receivers that cycle in and out, who are good.
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Old 01-15-2019, 09:37 AM   #9
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Third Quarter (There was no scoring)

When it comes to the Colts, the stars must have not been aligned. Anything that could go wrong, went wrong. An unsportsmanlike conduct call. A fumble. And, a holding call that wasn’t a holding infraction (“Don’t let the refs beat me!”). The Colts, in the third quarter, started to show signs of enthusiasm. Revitalization. Yet, every time they started to get their act together, everything seemed to unravel. They just couldn’t keep the continuity. The Chiefs have a habit of self-destructing in the second half (that’s why if the Patriots can keep it close…) and they were doing just that, but the “snake-bitten” Colts couldn’t put it together. There were signs of brilliance, i.e., Leonard fumble recovery, but no capitalization. If only the Colts could have put up a better pass rush. Mahomes had Indy jumping offside. On one occasion, it negated a Colts interception. Mental toughness is so important. Look for the snap, not the cadence.

If anything, Mahomes showed he was not as effective throwing the deep ball. It’s possible that “the zone” contributed to that. The unsportsmanlike conduct in front of the ref by the Colts’ Denico Autry was sophomoric.

Frankly, by and large, the Colts were their own worst enemy. They showed signs of ability, even brilliance. Yet, they were, again, not cohesive. They were out of sync. This is something the Patriots cannot allow to happen. Purposefulness. Composure. They’re both “a must!”

Make no mistake, Mahomes can throw. That sidearm throw, like a first-baseman throwing around the runner who is headed to second. Impressive.

Further, the Chiefs’ Dee Ford is impressive; he caused the Luck fumble that led to a Chiefs recovery. He must be prevented from pressuring Tom Brady.

If I see a weakness, it may be in the Chiefs secondary. Andrew Luck was connecting with receiver after receiver; it was a shame he couldn’t have got going earlier. The Chiefs controlled the time of possession and the game in the First Half.

Finally, that holding call that negated a big Colts gain. Ridiculous. Ludicrous. The Chiefs defender was already on the ground. Officiating can be like a gnawing headache. You just don’t want it to turn into a migraine.

I'll be back with my Fourth Quarter thoughts.
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Old 01-15-2019, 12:39 PM   #10
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The like the Chiefs Sunday, the Patriots are the best team in the history of football when they're home at Foxboro, but they can be beaten on the road. They probably have a way of cheating in Gillette stadium. The whole thing with beating the Patriots is the coaching strategy. You have to have good schemes.

It amazes me how teams let the Patriots destroy them with 6 yard passes, when the Patriots don't have any speed threats down field. The Chargers defensive strategy, staying with their deep zone, was idiotic against the Patriots. I would double team Edelman and blitz often. You have to put some pressure on Brady and make them keep a back in for protection, otherwise he keeps throwing those short passes to the running backs.
Then Gronk will go 9 catches for 165 yards and 2 TDs.

The Patriots have plenty of weapons and can get it downfield, particularly if you're double teaming the guy that's running 5 yard slants.
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Old 01-15-2019, 12:43 PM   #11
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This will be a good game, and for me, one simply to watch and see, like one poster said, which coaching staff makes the better moves. I think this game will come down to which team executes it's game plan the best. I feel like they will both be very, very well prepared. It'll just come down to which team plays best.

Should be a really good game.
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Old 01-15-2019, 12:52 PM   #12
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Then Gronk will go 9 catches for 165 yards and 2 TDs.

The Patriots have plenty of weapons and can get it downfield, particularly if you're double teaming the guy that's running 5 yard slants.
Gronk looks pretty slow these days.
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Old 01-15-2019, 01:09 PM   #13
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Latest Weather Channel forecast for Sunday puts high temperature at - 1. That's right, minus 1. The evening lows could approach all-time record low for Kansas City of - 6 set back in 1935. Brrr.
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Old 01-15-2019, 02:11 PM   #14
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Gronk looks pretty slow these days.
You gotta think this might be it for him. The dings are piling up and really starting to show. But still, you give him a favorable match up, he could hurt you bad.
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Old 01-15-2019, 02:43 PM   #15
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Fourth Quarter

By this time, the horse has left the barn. Yet, what might have been. If the usually reliable Adam Vinatieri kicks a 23-yard field goal (off the left upright) and doesn’t miss a PAT (I believe he was 70-for-70 in the playoffs), the Colts are just one score behind. They would have had the impetus. But no, those things didn’t happen. It just wasn’t the Colts’ night. Luck was frequently under-throwing his receivers. Did he have trouble gripping the ball? What’s mystifying about all this was during the regular season the Colts converted on nearly 50% of their 3rd down tries; they were 0-for-8 against the Chiefs.

Another thorn in Luck’s side was Chiefs defensive lineman, 6-foot-6 inch, Chris Jones. He batted down several passes.

If there is a weakness, defensively, for the Chiefs, it may be in their secondary. If Charcandrick West is out there on special teams, i.e., punt protection, he can be “picked on”.

I felt the Chargers got the benefit of the refs calls and non-calls. There appeared to be a definite pass interference call as it relates to D.Y. Hilton that wasn’t called. There was also a roughing-the-kicker penalty against the Colts that should not have been called. Chiefs kicker, Dustin Colquitt, must use the Stanislavski method of acting. He was hardly touched.

On the offensive side, Damien Williams was “the show” in the second half. He was their “bread and butter” back. The Chiefs kept pounding him inside (that’s what the Patriots need to do with Sony Michel; establish the running game). Williams, by the way, ended up with about five-yards per carry on 25 carries. If the Chiefs can do that to the Patriots, it could spell trouble.

What I find astounding is that Chiefs gave up miles of yardage on both the ground and in the air throughout the regular season. Many of their games were shootouts. The Chiefs gave up an average of 26 first-downs per game to their opponents. The Chiefs were better at Arrowhead, but even so… The Chiefs would give up 31 first downs in losing to the Seattle Seahawks in mid-December. Porous!

On another matter, the Chiefs final score came on one of those “scrum runs". (Tangentially, the Rules Committee has to do something about this; it should be about the player’s own momentum, not his teammates pushing him across the goal line or a first-down marker. It’s more like rugby than it is about football. While I’m at it, a sound should be made throughout the stadium when the time to put the ball in-play clock reaches 0. Just like the 24-second buzzer in basketball. I’ve seen the refs let it go even though it was distinctly a delay of game).

Finally, as if to add an exclamation point to the Colts loss. The Colts Reece Fountain drops a eminently catchable ball in the end zone. Then, on the final play of the game, the Colts don’t get it off.

I’ll have my AFC championship-game analysis, later.
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