buckpasser in the X angle

[Raider]

That's what I like about your work. The performance angle by itself narrows the number of horses your looking at to make your betting decision. I looked at that last year, and close to half of the horses in the fields(97-15) met that standard. (Not in all years, and since I didn't run a spreadsheet on that stat, would have to go back into it )When you factor in buckpasser, that number drops.

The other half of it is how many met the perfromance standard, and didn't get ITM.

[sbcaris]

Raider: Which performance standard are referring to? Buck in X plus final fraction or some other standard?

[Raider]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Raider: Which performance standard are referring to? Buck in X plus final fraction or some other standard?

the final fraction first, then buckpasser xp that met that standard. I have to find my KYD binder. I think that one year, only three horses met the final fraction standard. It was easier to look at the old forms than look for buckpasser xp

I am doing that now, but only for the points system.

good ideas and bad ideas cost the same, nothing.

[sbcaris]

Raider: My final fraction angle for the Derby is as follows: If a horse goes 37 4/5 or less in a big 5 prep race they comprise around 66% winners from around 30 percent of the starters in the Derby. One can expect an average of about 6 horses to qualify on this factor each year.

Buckpasser in the X by itself is not a good angle. I checked it out a few years ago and it was not strong. However, when combined with the fast final fraction indicator it becomes powerful. Buckpasser in the X plus a fast final 3 furlongs of a major prep at 9 furlongs is a very lucrative method for the Ky Derby.

[PowerUpPaynter]

So here is what I noticed. Of the 5 derby winners of the 2000's with Buckpasser in the X. (Nyquist, California Chrome, Orb, Super Saver, Funny Cide) only Super Saver did not qualify on the fast closing fractions. (I had him at 38 flat, please correct me if im wrong). However, knowing that Buckpasser passes the War Admiral and Blue Larkspur large heart gene. If you look for War Admiral and Blur Larkspur you can add American Pharoah, Big Brown, Smarty Jones, War Emblem. All of which qualify except for Big Brown who again I had at 38 flat.

[sbcaris]

Yes, you are correct in stating that Super Saver and Big Brown do not qualify on the final 3/8 in 37 4/5 or less because they did their last 3 furlongs of a big 5 prep in 38 flat.

Regarding War Admiral and Blue Larkspur. I really have not found any stat that is solid regarding the use of these two in the X passing position. Over the last 10 years there is a very high percentage of horses in the Triple Crown events that carry the above two stallions in the X position. So having a good percentage of winners carrying these two stallions is nothing to get excited over. If 80% of the starters carry WA or BL in the X passing position one would expect 80% of the winners to also carry either one of theme in the X. So that angle by itself carries no clout.

[turninforhome10]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Yes, you are correct in stating that Super Saver and Big Brown do not qualify on the final 3/8 in 37 4/5 or less because they did their last 3 furlongs of a big 5 prep in 38 flat.

Regarding War Admiral and Blue Larkspur. I really have not found any stat that is solid regarding the use of these two in the X passing position. Over the last 10 years there is a very high percentage of horses in the Triple Crown events that carry the above two stallions in the X position. So having a good percentage of winners carrying these two stallions is nothing to get excited over. If 80% of the starters carry WA or BL in the X passing position one would expect 80% of the winners to also carry either one of theme in the X. So that angle by itself carries no clout.

Would like to know where you get 80%?

[sbcaris]

Turningforhome: In 2016 there were 20 entries in the Derby and 17 of them had War Admiral or Blue Larkspur in the X passing position. The only three that did not carry WA or BL in the X were Exaggerator, Creator, and Destin. That's 85% of the entries carrying either of the above stallions or both in the X position for last year. I am sure the percentage is high if you were to analyze each of the preceding years. I know that using the above method by ITSELF does not carry clout. Perhaps doing some research by combining the above with some other factor like a fast finish or high Beyer figs etc may prove fruitful.

[turninforhome10]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Turningforhome: In 2016 there were 20 entries in the Derby and 17 of them had War Admiral or Blue Larkspur in the X passing position. The only three that did not carry WA or BL in the X were Exaggerator, Creator, and Destin. That's 85% of the entries carrying either of the above stallions or both in the X position for last year. I am sure the percentage is high if you were to analyze each of the preceding years. I know that using the above method by ITSELF does not carry clout. Perhaps doing some research by combining the above with some other factor like a fast finish or high Beyer figs etc may prove fruitful.

X passing position, not tail female.

[sbcaris]

There were 24 posts in this thread and not one mention of tail female. Evidently you are confusing this thread with another one in which the tail female line was discussed.

[PowerUpPaynter]

anyone know how many starters in the derby this century had Buckpasser in the X? I found there are 12 that have had a top 4 finish.

[sbcaris]

PowerUPPaynter: My stat on the Derby is a combination factor as follows: Buckpasser in the X plus a fast final 3/8 (37 4/5 or less or a fast final 1/8 in 12 4/5 or less and last start no worse than fourth and the horse did not lose 2 lengths or more from the 6 furlong call to the finish of a 9 furlong prep race in its last start..

Since 1978 there have been 30 Derby runners that qualified on the above and there were 7 Winners, 8 place finishers and 1 show finisher. That makes it 16 that finished in the money (first, second or third) from only 30 starters which is slightly greater than 50% in the money. The above stat is really fantastic and my book Analyzing The Triple Crown which can be ordered from American Turf Monthly contains many stats just like the above for all three jewels-- Derby, Preakness and Belmont stakes.

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

...my book Analyzing The Triple Crown which can be ordered from American Turf Monthly contains many stats just like the above for all three jewels-- Derby, Preakness and Belmont stakes.

I have the 2013 version and can say it's a worthy read. The tip sheet it came with was good that year too. Has it been updated much since?

[sbcaris]

f2Tornado: I updated all the impact values last year.

[Vinman]

Originally Posted by sbcaris

Yes, you are correct in stating that Super Saver and Big Brown do not qualify on the final 3/8 in 37 4/5 or less because they did their last 3 furlongs of a big 5 prep in 38 flat.

Regarding War Admiral and Blue Larkspur. I really have not found any stat that is solid regarding the use of these two in the X passing position. Over the last 10 years there is a very high percentage of horses in the Triple Crown events that carry the above two stallions in the X position. So having a good percentage of winners carrying these two stallions is nothing to get excited over. If 80% of the starters carry WA or BL in the X passing position one would expect 80% of the winners to also carry either one of theme in the X. So that angle by itself carries no clout.

Stan, if you were to use 38 flat for the final 3 furlongs instead of 37 4/5, enabling you to include Big Brown and Super Saver, how would this affect the impact value of the factor?

Vinman