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12-22-2017, 03:46 PM
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#16
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Just another Facist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Now in Houston
Posts: 52,860
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Would somebody who knows, explain to me just how much weight loss is enough to make you worry? Or weight gain for that matter?
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12-22-2017, 08:22 PM
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#17
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 5,414
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JustRalph
Would somebody who knows, explain to me just how much weight loss is enough to make you worry? Or weight gain for that matter?
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90% of the trainers wouldn't even know what the actual weight fluctuations are in their horses. Very few have scales. It's simply a guess. And to be honest, while using a scale, appearances are quite deceiving most times.
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12-23-2017, 01:11 PM
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#18
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Nebraska
Posts: 15,132
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Gulfstream is putting up weights also.
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12-23-2017, 01:36 PM
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#19
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Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2014
Posts: 860
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chadk66
90% of the trainers wouldn't even know what the actual weight fluctuations are in their horses. Very few have scales. It's simply a guess. And to be honest, while using a scale, appearances are quite deceiving most times.
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Spot on Chad.
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12-24-2017, 08:12 PM
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#20
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 5,414
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true weights would be a neat wrinkle. But I'm really not sure it would be of any actual benefit. Probably just one more thing to beat yourself up about. As horses mature they gain weight due to muscle mass. Muscle weighs far more than fat. So if trying to find a horse that's racing lighter than he did previously, it may not be in your best interest. On an older horse that is fully matured it could possibly benefit a handicapper. Just the weight number may be a trivial thing unless you can put an image of the horses condition along with it from various times. An example would be a horse that may have been fighting an illness or become dehydrated and dropped a significant amount of weight. If you saw that horse with your eye you may be able to pick up on the fact the horse may not look very good. Then two months later these issues may have been resolved and the horse is 100lbs heavier then you can say yep, he's much healthier and will run far better. That's a time when weight gain is beneficial to a horse. So it may be a really tough angle to capitalize on unless you can have physical appearances to go along with it. Just my thoughts.
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12-24-2017, 11:53 PM
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#21
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chadk66
true weights would be a neat wrinkle. But I'm really not sure it would be of any actual benefit. Probably just one more thing to beat yourself up about. As horses mature they gain weight due to muscle mass. Muscle weighs far more than fat. So if trying to find a horse that's racing lighter than he did previously, it may not be in your best interest. On an older horse that is fully matured it could possibly benefit a handicapper. Just the weight number may be a trivial thing unless you can put an image of the horses condition along with it from various times. An example would be a horse that may have been fighting an illness or become dehydrated and dropped a significant amount of weight. If you saw that horse with your eye you may be able to pick up on the fact the horse may not look very good. Then two months later these issues may have been resolved and the horse is 100lbs heavier then you can say yep, he's much healthier and will run far better. That's a time when weight gain is beneficial to a horse. So it may be a really tough angle to capitalize on unless you can have physical appearances to go along with it. Just my thoughts.
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Here's the thing. It's a piece of information. Like any other piece of information, it could be very relevant or not relevant at all. Not any different than "blinkers on".
But in general, whatever information is available should be made available to the wagering public so it can be factored in, or not factored in, by handicapppers.
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12-25-2017, 02:10 PM
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#22
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 5,414
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
Here's the thing. It's a piece of information. Like any other piece of information, it could be very relevant or not relevant at all. Not any different than "blinkers on".
But in general, whatever information is available should be made available to the wagering public so it can be factored in, or not factored in, by handicapppers.
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that's probably true. Not sure how it could be done in a reasonable manner. You'd have to weigh em all on the same scale or certified scales that get calibrated every so often. Do you weigh them the day before, morning of or four hours before post or what? The best way would be as they leave the receiving barn to go to paddock but that doesn't give you much time to use that info for handicapping. Doing it on the backside in the morning would be very hard to do.
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12-25-2017, 02:42 PM
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#23
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Just another Facist
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Now in Houston
Posts: 52,860
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Why not a trip by the scale on the way to any workout?
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12-25-2017, 04:00 PM
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#24
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 113,006
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More rocket science for the industry!
The way the tracks time races, why would I beleive a horse's weight?
This is a technology-challenged game.
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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12-25-2017, 05:37 PM
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#25
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 378
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JustRalph
Would somebody who knows, explain to me just how much weight loss is enough to make you worry? Or weight gain for that matter?
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Imagine yourself as a 100 mts runner. Also imagine you won the last race with 160 pounds. You got injured and you didn't run for 4 months, next race you are 170 pounds, would you consider that before analyzing the race in search of probable winner? I would.
Of course we are talking about horses not being developed, since these are putting in muscle weight but the great majority of runners are 5yo or older.
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12-26-2017, 05:18 PM
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#26
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2013
Posts: 5,414
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JustRalph
Why not a trip by the scale on the way to any workout?
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Logistically this would be easier than race day.
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12-27-2017, 09:16 AM
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#27
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 113,006
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They can't even get gelding days correct.
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Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Last edited by Tom; 12-27-2017 at 09:18 AM.
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12-30-2017, 09:47 PM
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#28
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math/science # cruncher
Join Date: Sep 2017
Posts: 180
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Weights don't do a thing for me, never will...even when I play Hong Kong
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01-07-2018, 03:53 PM
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#29
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,739
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Santa Anita showing weights today, on track.
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