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Old 04-02-2009, 07:15 AM   #1
csmith
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Join Date: Mar 2004
Location: Pinellas Park, Fla & Phoenix Az.
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NAP & NB PLAYS-THUR 4/2

THURSDAY APRIL 2, 2009

NAP::

TRACK-LOS ALAMITOS
RACE-#1
HORSE-#3-(QUEEN MISSY)

Queen Missy is shipping in from Santa Anita which tells you a lot about this horse right away. In her 2 lifetime starts
it appears she was way outclassed at Santa Anita. I think she is much better suited in this company. She is making at least
a double drop in class. She has been rested for 50 days since her last start. She is much the class of this field by a big
margin. She is making her first start on the dirt instead of the All weather surface at Santa Anita. She is also changing
to a 4.5f event which is the shortest distance in which she has competed. She doesn't have a Top Rated trainer but I don't think that makes
any difference. She has a Top Rated Jockey in this group in Maggie Carter. She has a Strong E1 and E2 Rating and she also has
My Dominant Speed Rating. All indications are she will be a winner this time. She will be a chalky play as the Morning Line Favorite
listed at 7/5 but I will bet her if I can get My Fair odds of 6/5
Post Time is....10:15 PM EDST

NB::

TRACK-LOS ALAMITOS
RACE-#6
HORSE-#4-(STAG ON THE RUN)

As you can see both of our plays are from Los Alamitos today because to me they appear to outstanding play.
I sure hope I am right, but I have been wrong before. Ok let's look at Stag On The Run. He is also a shipper from another California track.
He is shipping in from Golden gate and making his first start for a Top Trainer in Charles Treece. Treece is winning at a very respectable
win rate of 26%. He also has a 26% winning jockey on board in Ramon Guce. That is a combination that I think will be hard to beat, especially
because Stag On The Run is the class of the race in my opinion. He also is making a 2+ class drop and shortening to a 4.5F race.
I think he will be tough to beat.He has Strong E1 Ability and the Best E2 Rating. To make things better he has My Dominant Overall Speed Rating.
Yes, this is another chalky play and if I can get The Morning Line Odds off Even Money, which by the way is My Fair Odds value on him I will bet him.
Post Time is....12:15 PM EDST

The NAP was a Winner today but was bet way down to an Underlay..The NB play was a big disappointment to me. He never fired at all
and ran mid-pack very evenly. He did go off as an Overlay so he was a losing bet.

THE YEAR TO DATE PROFIT ON OVERLAYS IS +46%
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