Epidemiologist: Why Lockdowns Are The Wrong Policy

[ElKabong]

Originally Posted by Tom

FCS...someone buy this nut a coloring book and put him in his room.

I wonder if he was the 75 yo that confronted the riot control squad in Buffalo and bumped his head causing a bad concussion. His postings have been progressively inaccurate and goofy

[hcap]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

HCAP

You are literally clueless on this topic.



I said it was a crock of crap because a chart of Total Deaths or Total Cases ARE gigantic crock of crap if you are trying to track the progress of a pandemic and whether we are flattening the curve and making progress. The total will always go up.

Again, you have to look at new cases and new deaths per day, preferably in a 7 day moving average, because some days of the week are heavier reporting days than others (weekends tend to be lower and then there is catchup).

You also have to look at positive testing rates. .........
...............................................

I agree moving averages do indicate more clearly current trends. My intention of posting total fatalities is to emphasis the full extent of the rapidity of the contagion. And the serious nature of what we are facing. Very much missing, looking only at a 7 day moving averages. I never argued the rate of deaths was not declining.

You do realize without the lock down, social distancing and other mitigation measures, the curve would not be flattening. You seem to be ignoring that the slowing of the rate of increase in infections and fatalities would not be happening if we did nothing. More importantly you are also ignoring longer terms trends of pandemics, particularity with exponential contagious rate, the RO number.

Long term projections anticipate many short term "spikes" and more longer term waves coming, and possibly coinciding with seasonal flu episodes. The relatively mild 68-69 flu extended almost 18 months waning in intensity over that period. The horrendous 1918 Spanish flu. even longer. Your "crushing" is premature omitting those larger trends.

All the moving averages you cite, which I do agree is a useful tool indicate current trends, is only that, CURRENT. Projections based on epidemiological projections and models take much more than 7 day moving averages into account. I posted Silver's long term trend of overall deaths projected according to various models he used. He also uses those projections in the context of total deaths.

Remember, we only know so much about this novel coronavirus. However an exponential RO number puts us in a situation where we must use similar pandemics to grasp when we are in fact "crushing it." And as a warning. Hope for the best but be prepared for the worst.

I am not arguing states that practiced those proper mitigation measures like NYS managed to markedly flatten the curve. W do not know if re-opening in parts of the country which have not met the minimum CDC guidelines or if ignoring the remaining mitigation measures will do.

I just showed you Nate Silver posting a graph very much the same as mine. With models and projections very much like I have posted. But if the public rushes into re-opening, those models go into a tailspin.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by ElKabong

I wonder if he was the 75 yo that confronted the riot control squad in Buffalo and bumped his head causing a bad concussion. His postings have been progressively inaccurate and goofy

Hilarious!

[Tom]

Originally Posted by hcap

I just showed you Nate Silver posting a graph very much the same as mine. With models and projections very much like I have posted. But if the public rushes into re-opening, those models go into a tailspin.

how about all those out here demonstrating?
NO social distance.

How can ooujsutify SEatlle allowing them to openly violet lock down but make the rest of the city follow.

Simple question, hcap...which is more important, stopping the disease spreading or protesting?

[davew]

Originally Posted by hcap

I agree moving averages do indicate more clearly current trends. My intention of posting total fatalities is to emphasis the full extent of the rapidity of the contagion. And the serious nature of what we are facing. Very much missing, looking only at a 7 day moving averages. I never argued the rate of deaths was not declining.

You do realize without the lock down, social distancing and other mitigation measures, the curve would not be flattening. You seem to be ignoring that the slowing of the rate of increase in infections and fatalities would not be happening if we did nothing. More importantly you are also ignoring longer terms trends of pandemics, particularity with exponential contagious rate, the RO number.

Long term projections anticipate many short term "spikes" and more longer term waves coming, and possibly coinciding with seasonal flu episodes. The relatively mild 68-69 flu extended almost 18 months waning in intensity over that period. The horrendous 1918 Spanish flu. even longer. Your "crushing" is premature omitting those larger trends.

All the moving averages you cite, which I do agree is a useful tool indicate current trends, is only that, CURRENT. Projections based on epidemiological projections and models take much more than 7 day moving averages into account. I posted Silver's long term trend of overall deaths projected according to various models he used. He also uses those projections in the context of total deaths.

Remember, we only know so much about this novel coronavirus. However an exponential RO number puts us in a situation where we must use similar pandemics to grasp when we are in fact "crushing it." And as a warning. Hope for the best but be prepared for the worst.

I am not arguing states that practiced those proper mitigation measures like NYS managed to markedly flatten the curve. W do not know if re-opening in parts of the country which have not met the minimum CDC guidelines or if ignoring the remaining mitigation measures will do.

I just showed you Nate Silver posting a graph very much the same as mine. With models and projections very much like I have posted. But if the public rushes into re-opening, those models go into a tailspin.

how many people can this world handle before there are massive amounts of death from one cause or another? how about this country?

[hcap]

Originally Posted by Tom

how about all those out here demonstrating?
NO social distance.

How can ooujsutify SEatlle allowing them to openly violet lock down but make the rest of the city follow.

Simple question, hcap...which is more important, stopping the disease spreading or protesting?

These were primarily peaceful protestors upset and determined to right police brutality and social injustice protesting OUTOORs and mostly wearing masks.

You are correct they will spike the infection. Then again what about the moron insisting the republican convention be held indoors, with no social distancing, and by order of the moron, not to wear masks? They even have to sign a waiver promising NOT to sue the moron if they get sick from covid

What is the plan? To weed out the weakest of his dumbest obsequious followers?

[hcap]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

HCAP
You are literally clueless on this topic.

I said it was a crock of crap because a chart of Total Deaths or Total Cases ARE gigantic crock of crap if you are trying to track the progress of a pandemic and whether we are flattening the curve and making progress. The total will always go up.

Please, don't waste my time with nonsensical responses and charts. Instead look at these chart and learn what's actually going on.

Poor baby. Your own crock is dependent on short term trends and assumptions . We are dealing with a very contagious disease that spreads like wild fire. And it is getting hold, and spreading where it was not before. A few sparks and all your 7 day moving averages go up in smoke.

U.S. Hits 2 Million Coronavirus Cases As Many States See A Surge Of Patients
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...ge-of-patients

The latest data also reflects the difficulty of quashing the coronavirus. While some early hot spots such as New York state have seen a sustained drop in new cases, COVID-19 hospitalizations have swelled recently in places like Texas, Arizona, Arkansas and California.

As of Thursday morning, more than 112,000 people have died from COVID-19 in the U.S. — the most fatalities reported by any nation, according to a tracker from Johns Hopkins University. And most experts believe those numbers underestimate the true toll.
.................................................. ............................
As I said, way too early to assume we are "crushing it" outside the few states that have actually flattened the curve through mitigation measures like NYS.

https://covid19-projections.com/
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
This is your only link that is somewhat relevant. The other links you listed of NYS is irrelevant to overall US numbers since NYS as I said instituted successful mitigation measures and is in fact flattening the curve.

And as the NPR link shows many other regions and states have not yet been as severely hit, and many are only beginning to get hit. And many are catching on fire

From your "Machine Learning" link I copied a graph ONCE AGAIN using a historical graph as I have been posting all along with projections.
It is no crock....

[tucker6]

Originally Posted by hcap

NYS as I said instituted successful mitigation measures

I wonder if all the families of dead nursing home residents would agree with you. What do you think?

What is your opinion of Cuomo overstating his needs to the detriment of other states? Such as asking for 100k respirators when he actually needed a fraction of that. Begging for a hospital ship and never using it? Asking for the Corps to convert the Javits center to a hospital and not using it. NYS was successful in wasting lives and money and in the end killed their residents and their economy. Great job Cuomo.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by hcap

Poor baby. Your own crock is dependent on short term trends and assumptions . We are dealing with a very contagious disease that spreads like wild fire. And it is getting hold, and spreading where it was not before. A few sparks and all your 7 day moving averages go up in smoke.

U.S. Hits 2 Million Coronavirus Cases As Many States See A Surge Of Patients
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronav...ge-of-patients

The latest data also reflects the difficulty of quashing the coronavirus. While some early hot spots such as New York state have seen a sustained drop in new cases, COVID-19 hospitalizations have swelled recently in places like Texas, Arizona, Arkansas and California.

As of Thursday morning, more than 112,000 people have died from COVID-19 in the U.S. — the most fatalities reported by any nation, according to a tracker from Johns Hopkins University. And most experts believe those numbers underestimate the true toll.
.................................................. ............................
As I said, way too early to assume we are "crushing it" outside the few states that have actually flattened the curve through mitigation measures like NYS.

https://covid19-projections.com/
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
This is your only link that is somewhat relevant. The other links you listed of NYS is irrelevant to overall US numbers since NYS as I said instituted successful mitigation measures and is in fact flattening the curve.

And as the NPR link shows many other regions and states have not yet been as severely hit, and many are only beginning to get hit. And many are catching on fire

From your "Machine Learning" link I copied a graph ONCE AGAIN using a historical graph as I have been posting all along with projections.
It is no crock....

Stick with Climate Change.

At least you have some idea of what you are talking about there. You are embarrassing yourself here.

[46zilzal]

Infection rates and, WORSE hospitalizations, way up in NINE states since the relaxation of distancing and masking.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/healt...ations-rising/

quote: In Texas, North and South Carolina, California, Oregon, Arkansas, Mississippi, Utah and Arizona, there are an increasing number of patients under supervised care since the holiday weekend because of coronavirus infections. The spikes generally began in the past couple weeks and in most states are trending higher.

As of Tuesday, Arizona reported 1,243 current hospitalizations, a 49 percent increase since Memorial Day, when there were 833 hospitalizations.

[Tom]

Originally Posted by hcap View Post
NYS as I said instituted successful mitigation measures

Hard to find that at all impressive when they were the WORST hot spot in the country due directly to incompetence by the state.

What a stupid comment!

[Tom]

Originally Posted by 46zilzal

Infection rates and, WORSE hospitalizations, way up in NINE states since the relaxation of distancing and masking.

Just wait until the numbers come in where all the riots happened!
Stupid worthless democant's!

[hcap]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Stick with Climate Change.

At least you have some idea of what you are talking about there. You are embarrassing yourself here.

You think it it over, confided by "day trading" moving averages and the Donald's happy talk.

[hcap]

Originally Posted by Tom

Hard to find that at all impressive when they were the WORST hot spot in the country due directly to incompetence by the state.

What a stupid comment!

Because Trump blew it big time. Didn't ya know according to the Donald everything was gonna be honky dory, and all goin' away real soon. Lickety split.

Tom, I know you might be thinkin' of going to Trump rally, or the repug. convention, but although we may have had our "debates", I really hope you don't for your own sake. Who else would I annoy with a wit (or 1/2), and a sense of humor?

[Tom]

Originally Posted by hcap

Because Trump blew it big time. Didn't ya know according to the Donald everything was gonna be honky dory, and all goin' away real soon. Lickety split.

Tom, I know you might be thinkin' of going to Trump rally, or the repug. convention, but although we may have had our "debates", I really hope you don't for your own sake. Who else would I annoy with a wit (or 1/2), and a sense of humor?

That is 100% BS - COUMO made the call to put infected patients in nursing homes. TRUMP gave COUMO everything he asked for and COUMO failed use it effectively. Nursing home filled with sick people, entire ships not used at all.

If Trump had been the cause, why was ONLY NY hit like it was?

Trumps comments had NO effect on NY - NONE.

Trump affects weak feebel minds like YOURS!