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Old 04-01-2014, 08:52 PM   #1
Drew
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Database questions

What percentage of winners in maiden races are first time starters? What percentage of winners have run back within 45 days of their last start in non-mdn races?

Could anyone review this or do they have these numbers handy? i am just curious. I appreciate any help you can provide.
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Old 04-02-2014, 09:29 AM   #2
mikesal57
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drew
What percentage of winners in maiden races are first time starters? What percentage of winners have run back within 45 days of their last start in non-mdn races?

Could anyone review this or do they have these numbers handy? i am just curious. I appreciate any help you can provide.

In you first scenario...

From July 2012 , I have 3073 winners from 32461 races which = .0947 %
(Note: There were 101 winners from 922 races @ .1095 % where the FTS wasn't in a maiden race)


Your second scenario...

I get 50,126 from 371,535 @ .1349 %

have fun

mike

Last edited by mikesal57; 04-02-2014 at 09:37 AM.
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Old 04-02-2014, 12:34 PM   #3
Drew
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Thanks so much.

One more question. What percentage of races are won by a FTS or a horse who has run within 45 days?
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Old 04-02-2014, 12:48 PM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Drew
Thanks so much.

One more question. What percentage of races are won by a FTS or a horse who has run within 45 days?
You cant have a FTS in this one..lol

all horses that raced <= 45 days ....66,448 out of 499,000 .1332 %
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Old 04-02-2014, 05:55 PM   #5
Longshot6977
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mikesal57
.1332 %
Mike. Good info. Just for everyone's FYI when they review your numbers, the decimal needs to be moved to the right 2 places in your posts. Above should be 13.32%.
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Old 04-02-2014, 06:13 PM   #6
JustRalph
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On the first question

I get just under 10% are firsters

But I don't play all tracks, so this data set is limited to about 12 tracks over 2 years. But it looks to be close to what was posted earlier
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Old 04-03-2014, 08:28 AM   #7
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Just to expand a little on using 45 days..
Here is a chart with dirt only horses

I see that between 60-65 days can be just as good as 45..

But the limit is 120 days...

in my opinion

Code:
        -999           30 -171114.90  682062.00     0.7491   45751  341031   .1342   1.0172
          30           35  -12509.60   59910.00     0.7912    4213   29955   .1406   1.0664
          35           40   -9965.40   49350.00     0.7981    3657   24675   .1482   1.1237
          40           45   -9166.40   39616.00     0.7686    2825   19808   .1426   1.0814
          45           50   -3836.80   23222.00     0.8348    1692   11611   .1457   1.1049
          50           55   -3535.30   15366.00     0.7699    1057    7683   .1376   1.0431
          55           60   -2414.00   14996.00     0.8390    1035    7498   .1380   1.0466
          60           65   -2587.40   11786.00     0.7805     818    5893   .1388   1.0525
          65           70   -1645.80    7472.00     0.7797     463    3736   .1239   0.9396
          70           75   -1145.30    6754.00     0.8304     448    3377   .1327   1.0059
          75           80   -1418.40    5976.00     0.7627     363    2988   .1215   0.9211
          80           85    -919.40    4692.00     0.8040     285    2346   .1215   0.9211
          85           90   -1440.90    3830.00     0.6238     217    1915   .1133   0.8592
          90           95    -332.40    3984.00     0.9166     260    1992   .1305   0.9896
          95          100   -1152.70    3374.00     0.6584     195    1687   .1156   0.8764
         100          105    -433.60    2472.00     0.8246     153    1236   .1238   0.9386
         105          110    -721.10    2664.00     0.7293     147    1332   .1104   0.8368
         110          115    -582.90    2356.00     0.7526     160    1178   .1358   1.0298
         115          120    -469.80    2082.00     0.7744     133    1041   .1278   0.9687
         120       999999  -34185.60  116694.00     0.7070    5941   58347   .1018   0.7720

enjoy
Mike

Last edited by mikesal57; 04-03-2014 at 08:31 AM.
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Old 04-03-2014, 08:32 AM   #8
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Just in case someone asks...

Turf numbers...looks just as good using 65..

Code:
        -999           30  -25151.60  103476.00     0.7569    5697   51738   .1101   0.9725
          30           35   -1993.50   12618.00     0.8420     792    6309   .1255   1.1087
          35           40   -2890.50   11908.00     0.7573     766    5954   .1287   1.1363
          40           45   -2059.40   10130.00     0.7967     663    5065   .1309   1.1561
          45           50    -892.60    5866.00     0.8478     348    2933   .1186   1.0479
          50           55    -475.40    3826.00     0.8757     256    1913   .1338   1.1819
          55           60    -886.10    3594.00     0.7535     198    1797   .1102   0.9731
          60           65    -384.60    2826.00     0.8639     198    1413   .1401   1.2376
          65           70    -641.40    1694.00     0.6214      91     847   .1074   0.9489
          70           75    -673.90    1490.00     0.5477      81     745   .1087   0.9603
          75           80    -394.20    1340.00     0.7058      69     670   .1030   0.9096
          80           85    -122.50    1008.00     0.8785      51     504   .1012   0.8937
          85           90    -313.60     710.00     0.5583      38     355   .1070   0.9454
          90           95    -389.30     770.00     0.4944      31     385   .0805   0.7111
          95          100     -91.70     666.00     0.8623      37     333   .1111   0.9813
         100          105    -156.10     480.00     0.6748      29     240   .1208   1.0672
         105          110    -218.20     514.00     0.5755      19     257   .0739   0.6529
         110          115     -45.20     518.00     0.9127      33     259   .1274   1.1253
         115          120    -109.00     388.00     0.7191      20     194   .1031   0.9105
         120       999999   -3937.60   18540.00     0.7876     907    9270   .0978   0.8641
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