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Old 10-19-2018, 05:31 PM   #1
dilanesp
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the theory behind the jackpot pick 6....

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/a...mpression=true
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Old 10-20-2018, 10:50 AM   #2
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Hey Capt. Obvious, everybody in this forum knows the theory behind the P6 jackpot bet. Tho with everything in life, there's 'theory vs application'. Let me enlighten you based on this utterly useless link (I mean, since I'm here and all)...

- The lottery increased the possible numbers required to win by increasing the field. You can still box all if you want in the P6 (and at BEL they've actually reduced the field at times )

- The lottery will pay all who hit. That is the essence of the P6 bet - they only pay a sole winner.

- The lottery increased the price of a bet. The P6 was actually reduced.

- The lottery is solely based on what most refer to as 'luck' as they use a RNG to produce their winning numbers. I know at certain times most of use here think racing does the same for the P6, but I think for the most part we cling dearly to the 'theory' that the 'application' of some type of 'skill' is required here (tho as always, YMMV).

- And now the main diff which is what sours me on this bet to no end. The lottery allegedly increased some instances of smaller prizes rewarded. The P6 bet actually DECREASED all preceding consols by 50% in most cases to fund this jackpot! I live on consols - but not anymore at tracks that offer this bet. I shun them like SUF runners making a start at BEL (hey, wasn't there a $53 winner yesterday???).

So in theory, just as a person running for an elected office is a politician, the D or R (or I) next to their name alerts you that there will be differences in their application of how they proceed in office (that's not political is it PA?).

Perhaps PA can start a 'TIL' forum for the enlightened souls who care to post something that all of us are aware of.
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Old 10-20-2018, 11:20 AM   #3
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Spike it sounds like you have a losing lottery ticket stuck up your ass. You can share your vast knowledge with us of lower IQ without trying to cut down the original poster.
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Old 10-20-2018, 11:33 AM   #4
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You can share your vast knowledge with us of lower IQ without trying to cut down the original poster.
But you would ruin a lot of people's lives if you made them stop doing that...

A choice few LIVE for just that sort of thing on here...
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Old 10-20-2018, 11:43 AM   #5
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Spike it sounds like you have a losing lottery ticket stuck up your ass. You can share your vast knowledge with us of lower IQ without trying to cut down the original poster.
You just gave me a visual I can't get rid off - a lotto ticket coming out of....... Thanks for that!
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Old 10-20-2018, 11:50 AM   #6
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I'm surmising most everyone knew that when (I think) GP instituted this bet, it was to create a lottery-type jackpot albeit on the back of current churn (what else is new?). The OP decided to post the obvious just because the lottery itself is getting some attention due to its record jackpot. What's the point of posting the obvious that most everyone here already is aware of?

Is the quinella a bad bet?
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Old 10-20-2018, 12:02 PM   #7
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But you would ruin a lot of people's lives if you made them stop doing that...

A choice few LIVE for just that sort of thing on here...
Life itself, with all of it's generous offerings of adversity and reward...

yah know? - Life's SIGNIFICANT concerns??

Is somehow not enough for some people, who find they must stir up s̶h̶ Drama to entertain themselves...

I've dated a few (too many!) while wallowing in the mire.

They seem to populate rush hour traffic and walmart super-centers...

My theory is that these are brilliant minds who see the big picture. They're simply bored with the whole thing...
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Old 10-20-2018, 12:16 PM   #8
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The reason I posted the OP is to point out something very simple- gambling markets aren't full of rational economic actors. It is possible for tracks to make more money by making a bet worse for patrons.

So many people here assume that is never true.
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Old 10-20-2018, 12:19 PM   #9
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Despite all the headlines created by Mega Millions and Powerball jackpot games --

A chart on p23 of the California Lottery 2016-2017 Annual Report shows that Scratchers Tickets (not giant jackpot games) accounted for 73.4% of total lottery sales in California during the most recent fiscal year.

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Old 10-20-2018, 12:31 PM   #10
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The analysis on p24 of the California Lottery 2016-2017 Annual Report shows that year over year Lotto sales were down 22% while year over year Scratchers ticket sales were up 5%.

Quote:
Lottery operating revenue decreased $42.1 million from the previous fiscal year. This decrease is largely due to a decrease in Powerball and Mega Millions sales because the previous year featured a record-breaking $1.6 billion Powerball jackpot which drove up sales. In fiscal year 2016-17, Scratchers sales increased $224.2 million or 5.2 percent due to the continued popularity of $10 and $20 price-point games offering large prize payouts.
While it's true that giant jackpots do drive sales --

It's also true that Scratchers tickets are the largest single segment of their business.

CALottery2017p24.JPG
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Last edited by Jeff P; 10-20-2018 at 12:38 PM.
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Old 10-20-2018, 01:33 PM   #11
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Scratchers are the preferred product for compulsive gamblers, because you don't have to wait to find out if you won. They are like slot machines in a casino.
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Old 10-20-2018, 03:18 PM   #12
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You just gave me a visual I can't get rid off - a lotto ticket coming out of....... Thanks for that!
Sorry about that!
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Old 10-20-2018, 04:06 PM   #13
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Sorry about that!
I'm just glad it wasn't a scratcher!
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Old 10-20-2018, 05:10 PM   #14
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I bought my ticket.

Cost me $2

and I can afford that.

(I will not tell which numbers I played, sorry.)
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Old 10-21-2018, 06:46 PM   #15
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The reason I posted the OP is to point out something very simple- gambling markets aren't full of rational economic actors. It is possible for tracks to make more money by making a bet worse for patrons.

So many people here assume that is never true.
Don't overlook the inherent flaw built into this exotic wager being if you are the only ticket remaining going into the last leg and you have multiple numbers one being the betting favorite and one of your other numbers scratch the track replaces your scatched horse with the favorite it wins and you have 2 winning tickets and the jackpot isnt awarded. That is totally unfair. They should change that rule. But they dont care enough about their patrons to do anything about it.
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