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Old 09-09-2018, 12:28 PM   #1
TheOracle
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Charting MLFs @BEL -- part 2 second half season!!!

The Morning Line Favorites at even money have lost 2 in a row on wet Surfaces at Belmont going back to 2015



I don't think 3 in a row will happen today as Brown has left his even money MLF in for today's 2nd race!!!

2nd race
#2 Strategic Outlook

Besides this one and #3 Hay Field below, I don't think the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 will do much today as they won 7 races yesterday!!!

5th race
#3 Hay Field




Let's see what happens!!!
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Old 09-09-2018, 06:40 PM   #2
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Will track the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 over the course of the 2nd half of the Belmont Season



Will also need to work on an algorithm to anticipate good days versus bad days for the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1
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Old 09-09-2018, 10:30 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheOracle View Post
The Morning Line Favorites at even money have lost 2 in a row on wet Surfaces at Belmont going back to 2015



I don't think 3 in a row will happen today as Brown has left his even money MLF in for today's 2nd race!!!

2nd race
#2 Strategic Outlook

Besides this one and #3 Hay Field below, I don't think the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 will do much today as they won 7 races yesterday!!!

5th race
#3 Hay Field




Let's see what happens!!!
Brown disappointed us with #2 Strategic Outlook getting upset as the even money Morning Line Favorite.

I didn't think 3 losses in a row from even money Morning Line Favorites would happen but of course it did



However, #3 Hay Field came through for us with the win paying $12.10 across the board!!!

Congratulations for those who saw the play and were able to make a profit!!!
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Old 09-16-2018, 12:30 PM   #4
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Since this post Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 at Belmont have only won 9 of their last 31 races!!!



I am thinking think the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 will do well (4+ wins) today!!!

Also will need to keep working on that algorithm

From among these today


I am leaning toward Handal's horse in the 6th race today at Belmont

6th race
#3 Wicked Trick

Let's see if Handal can get the win with this one today!!!

Last edited by TheOracle; 09-16-2018 at 12:44 PM.
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Old 09-16-2018, 10:56 PM   #5
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Since this post Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 at Belmont have only won 9 of their last 31 races!!!



I am thinking think the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 will do well (4+ wins) today!!!

Also will need to keep working on that algorithm

From among these today


I am leaning toward Handal's horse in the 6th race today at Belmont

6th race
#3 Wicked Trick

Let's see if Handal can get the win with this one today!!!
#3 Wicked Trick finished 3rd today at Belmont.

I really thought the MLFs less than 3-1 would have had a much better day today but only 3 winners came from this group and all 3 were MLFs ending with 5



So 5ers beat other MLFs by a 3 to 0 margin today



I was thinking it would be a big day for the MLFs less than 3-1 but there were only 3 winners from this group today
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Old 09-21-2018, 01:10 PM   #6
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There was only 1 winner from this group yesterday



Code:
1	09-21-2018	1st race	2	Loose (FL)	Claiming	Six Furlongs	A W Dutrow	2/1#	Dirt
2	09-21-2018	2nd race	6	Keota (KY)	Maiden Claiming	Six Furlongs	K P McLaughlin	6/5#	Turf
3	09-21-2018	3rd race	3	Golden Award (KY)	Maiden Special Weight	Six And One Half Furlongs	W I Mott	5/2#	Dirt
4	09-21-2018	3rd race	7	Our Circle of Love (KY)	Maiden Special Weight	Six And One Half Furlongs	M Nevin	2/1#	Dirt
5	09-21-2018	5th race	2	Cilantro (KY)	Allowance	One And One Sixteenth Miles	T A Pletcher	5/2#	Dirt
6	09-21-2018	5th race	4	Land Mine (NY)	Allowance	One And One Sixteenth Miles	P M Serpe	7/5#	Dirt
7	09-21-2018	8th race	4	Out of Orbit (NY)	Allowance	Six And One Half Furlongs	P M Serpe	5/2#	Dirt
8	09-21-2018	8th race	5	Makin Out (NY)	Allowance	Six And One Half Furlongs	B N Levine	9/5#	Dirt
9	09-21-2018	9th race	5	Bankit (NY)	Stakes	Seven Furlongs	S M Asmussen	5/2#	Dirt
I'm leaning toward Dutrow in the 1st race today with #2 Loose

Let's see what happens!!!
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Old 09-22-2018, 01:39 AM   #7
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There was only 1 winner from this group yesterday



Code:
1	09-21-2018	1st race	2	Loose (FL)	Claiming	Six Furlongs	A W Dutrow	2/1#	Dirt
2	09-21-2018	2nd race	6	Keota (KY)	Maiden Claiming	Six Furlongs	K P McLaughlin	6/5#	Turf
3	09-21-2018	3rd race	3	Golden Award (KY)	Maiden Special Weight	Six And One Half Furlongs	W I Mott	5/2#	Dirt
4	09-21-2018	3rd race	7	Our Circle of Love (KY)	Maiden Special Weight	Six And One Half Furlongs	M Nevin	2/1#	Dirt
5	09-21-2018	5th race	2	Cilantro (KY)	Allowance	One And One Sixteenth Miles	T A Pletcher	5/2#	Dirt
6	09-21-2018	5th race	4	Land Mine (NY)	Allowance	One And One Sixteenth Miles	P M Serpe	7/5#	Dirt
7	09-21-2018	8th race	4	Out of Orbit (NY)	Allowance	Six And One Half Furlongs	P M Serpe	5/2#	Dirt
8	09-21-2018	8th race	5	Makin Out (NY)	Allowance	Six And One Half Furlongs	B N Levine	9/5#	Dirt
9	09-21-2018	9th race	5	Bankit (NY)	Stakes	Seven Furlongs	S M Asmussen	5/2#	Dirt
I'm leaning toward Dutrow in the 1st race today with #2 Loose

Let's see what happens!!!
The Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 continue to struggle at Belmont they are now 0 for their last 6!!!



I thought #2 Loose was going to break the winless streak of 6 from yesterday but he was the 7th victim!!!

Once again an 0 for 6 winless streak from this group spills over into Saturday.

Let's see what happens tomorrow!!!
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Old 10-05-2018, 12:59 PM   #8
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The Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 continue to struggle at Belmont they are now 0 for their last 6!!!



I thought #2 Loose was going to break the winless streak of 6 from yesterday but he was the 7th victim!!!

Once again an 0 for 6 winless streak from this group spills over into Saturday.

Let's see what happens tomorrow!!!
Since this post the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 have been as bad as the JETS!!!



Only 30% have won their respective races!!!

Interesting to note, MLFs less than 3-1 have lost 9 straight Claiming races at Belmont!!!



Let's see if one of these can get the win to break the streak today!!!

Code:
1	10-05-2018	1st race	3	Ekhtibaar (KY)	Claiming	One And One Eighth Miles	C C Brown	5/2#	Turf
2	10-05-2018	1st race	4	Souperfast (KY)	Claiming	One And One Eighth Miles	P L Reynolds	9/5#	Turf
3	10-05-2018	4th race	2	Aggregator (KY)	Claiming	Six Furlongs	R E Reid Jr.	5/2#	Dirt
Things seem to change when streaks get close to 10!!!

Let's see if we get a win in the 1st today at Belmont!!!
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Old 10-06-2018, 12:51 AM   #9
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Quote:
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Since this post the Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 have been as bad as the JETS!!!



Only 30% have won their respective races!!!

Interesting to note, MLFs less than 3-1 have lost 9 straight Claiming races at Belmont!!!



Let's see if one of these can get the win to break the streak today!!!

Code:
1	10-05-2018	1st race	3	Ekhtibaar (KY)	Claiming	One And One Eighth Miles	C C Brown	5/2#	Turf
2	10-05-2018	1st race	4	Souperfast (KY)	Claiming	One And One Eighth Miles	P L Reynolds	9/5#	Turf
3	10-05-2018	4th race	2	Aggregator (KY)	Claiming	Six Furlongs	R E Reid Jr.	5/2#	Dirt
Things seem to change when streaks get close to 10!!!

Let's see if we get a win in the 1st today at Belmont!!!
We sniffed out 2 wins yesterday as #4 Souperfast came through in the Claiming race paying $13.90 across the board!!!

We also had both halves of the Exacta which came back at $26 not too shabby for 2 Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1!!!

We also sniffed out the winner in the 4th race #2 Aggregator which paid $15 across the board again pretty decent payout for a Morning Line Favorite less than 3-1 in a Claiming race!!!

The theory of 10 worked yesterday I wish it would work all the time!!!

Congratulations to those who saw the plays and were able to make a profit off of the wins and hopefully the Exactas!!!
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Old 10-06-2018, 07:29 PM   #10
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#3 Wicked Trick finished 3rd today at Belmont.

I really thought the MLFs less than 3-1 would have had a much better day today but only 3 winners came from this group and all 3 were MLFs ending with 5



So 5ers beat other MLFs by a 3 to 0 margin today



I was thinking it would be a big day for the MLFs less than 3-1 but there were only 3 winners from this group today
Since this post the MLFs less than 3-1 in September started the month with a spike and ended the month with a spike



MLFs less than 3-1 in Maiden races on the Turf gave one of the most profitable returns for chalk players as they won 8 out of their last 16 attempts for the month of September



MLFs less than 3-1 in Maiden races on the Turf gave a return of 34% per $2 win wager!!!

Out of the 8 wins, MLFs ending with 5 won 5 of their last 7 attempts!!!

Last edited by TheOracle; 10-06-2018 at 07:32 PM.
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Old 10-06-2018, 07:34 PM   #11
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I will need to work on an algorithm to monitor when MLFs less than 3-1 are struggling
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Old 10-20-2018, 09:30 AM   #12
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I will need to work on an algorithm to monitor when MLFs less than 3-1 are struggling
Still working on the algorithm but for now we are manual and in looking at the results from yesterday MLFs less than 3-1 went 1 for 12 yesterday



Almost grabbed the collar for the entire day. MLFs less than 3-1 have gone 0 for their last 8!!!

My theory of 10 will be put to the test today, the closer a streak gets to 10 the more likely it will be snapped



Let's pay attention to races 1, 2 and 3

1st race
#4 Crack Shot

2nd race
#5 Highway Star

3rd race
#11 Offering Plan

I am thinking one of these should win and I'm leaning toward #4 Crack Shot

Let's see what happens!!!
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Old 10-21-2018, 11:50 AM   #13
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Still working on the algorithm but for now we are manual and in looking at the results from yesterday MLFs less than 3-1 went 1 for 12 yesterday



Almost grabbed the collar for the entire day. MLFs less than 3-1 have gone 0 for their last 8!!!

My theory of 10 will be put to the test today, the closer a streak gets to 10 the more likely it will be snapped



Let's pay attention to races 1, 2 and 3

1st race
#4 Crack Shot

2nd race
#5 Highway Star

3rd race
#11 Offering Plan

I am thinking one of these should win and I'm leaning toward #4 Crack Shot

Let's see what happens!!!
We sniffed out 2 wins yesterday from Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 as #5 Highway Star and #11 Ofering Plan both won paying $13.20 and $10.10 respectively!!!

Congratulations to those who saw the plays and were able to make a profit!!!
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Old 10-21-2018, 12:40 PM   #14
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
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Old 10-21-2018, 03:13 PM   #15
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We sniffed out 2 wins yesterday from Morning Line Favorites less than 3-1 as #5 Highway Star and #11 Ofering Plan both won paying $13.20 and $10.10 respectively!!!

Congratulations to those who saw the plays and were able to make a profit!!!
I didn’t realize that MLFs less than 3-1 won 4 out of their 7 races yesterday

Code:
1	10-20-2018	2nd race	5	Highway Star (NY)	Stakes	Dirt Fast	Six And One Half Furlongs	R A Ubillo	5/2#	W	6.8	3.7	2.7
2	10-20-2018	3rd race	11	Offering Plan (NY)	Stakes	Turf Good	One And One Sixteenth Miles	C C Brown	8/5#	W	4.7	3.1	2.3
3	10-20-2018	5th race	6	La Moneda (NY)	Stakes	Turf Good	One And One Sixteenth Miles	T Morley	8/5#	P		3.4	2.8
4	10-20-2018	5th race	7	Fifty Five (NY)	Stakes	Turf Good	One And One Sixteenth Miles	C C Brown	7/5#	W	3.6	2.3	2.1
5	10-20-2018	6th race	14	Beachside (NY)	Maiden Special Weight	Dirt Fast	Six Furlongs	L Rice	2/1#	P		3.1	2.3
6	10-20-2018	8th race	6	Dugout (NY)	Stakes	Dirt Fast	One Mile	L Rivelli	5/2#				
7	10-20-2018	10th race	10	Pat On the Back (NY)	Stakes	Dirt Fast	One And One Eighth Miles	J C Englehart	5/2#	W	6.5	3.5	2.6

ML Odds	Strts	1st	2nds	3rds	Win %	Win $	Cost	Return	% Return						
lt 3-1	7	4	2	0	57.1%	$21.6	$14	$7.6	54%						
                                                WPS %	WPS $	Cost	Return	% Rtrn	Shw $
                                                85.7%	$55.5	$42	$13.5	32%	14.8
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