Justify worked this morning

[Grits]

In 2015, when Pharoah arrived at Belmont I was on the track early the next a.m when he galloped. Was in the paddock, too, when he schooled. Took lots of photos. I hope to be able to do the same again next week as I'll get into NYC Monday a.m.. I believe Justify will work once more, next Monday, and then ship on Wednesday.

If the guy that runs this place doesn't go slack on me, that's you, PA, I'll try and send him some photos of Justify and others, praying that he'll get motivated to post them BEFORE the big race, not after. I know how he is!!

Before sending photos, though, I'll head to the track kitchen--drink coffee, eat an omelet with ham, tomatoes, mushrooms, white cheddar and spinach. Along with home fries. In heaven! Best breakfast on Long Island!! Gentlemen, a girl's gotta eat.

[Vinnie]

Thank you so much Grits... And, thanks for sharing with all of us. Looking forward to your Belmont commentary up to and during the event itself. Enjoy that breakfast by the way. Best meal God ever invented if you ask me....

[Grits]

You're so welcome, Vinnie. I love Belmont's track kitchen. I could eat there every morning!!!!!! And at home, I'm not even a breakfast person. LOVE their omelets.

[Vinnie]

Please stop it Grits . You are getting me all revved up over here. Never mind the race, I may just have to show up for one of those excellent omelets you speak of...

[papillon]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

He is a nice horse, getting or not getting 12F is not going to change my opinion. This slow crap has been beat to death.

No one has ever said he can't go fast up to 6f. It's after 6f that is the problem.

As for beating it to death, there are several figure makers who don't seem to have a problem with the contention that Justify is not that fast, but it is taken as a personal affront to those who post here. Is suffering another persective so onerous?

FWIW The Churchill Clocker gave the work a "B+"

This work has achieved its purpose of trying to shock and awe the horse's critics and doubters into silence, but a 46.80 half before a mile and a half on the heals of the Derby and the Preakness, seems a little risky, especially given that this type of work is out of character for this horse for Baffert. Before the Derby, I had expressed shock here that his final prep was in 1:13, only to be corrected that Justify only ever worked in 1:13s.

Justify has the exact wrong energy distribution for this race. His step deceleration is unquestionable, he has done it in every race from his Allowance. The Belmont is won by the fastest horse with the flatest energy distribution, the least amount of deceleration:

http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/truen...-distance.aspx

American Pharoah worked in a 48, followed by 1:00, which is would seem exactly what you want. Like all Belmont winners, his fractions were metronome-like, which is basically how he did everything.

The work was also likely geared to the other trainers and jockeys as a sort of head fake. I'm not sure it will have as big an effect as it would have had Justify romped in the Preakness.

Just as an aside, why do you take the raw time of this work as legit, when you insist raw times are garbage? Maybe Baffert was completely honest when he said the track was really fast, if so, maybe with the proper variant the work was really 49.80? Just saying...

You guys want it both ways, depending on whichever one supports your narrative. I accept that it was in 46.80...but I also accept that it was in 2:04...and I accept that 2:04 is not 1:59 or even MTB's 2:01.

If he runs fast early, he loses. If he runs slow early, he loses. If he runs moderately, he has to hope he can get 12f better than all the horses surrounding him also running moderately.

[Secondbest]

So far justify' s preparation looks ok to me. Plus Baffert said he held his weight which for the SA derby was 1258 lbs I believe. That's a lot to hold. The next work and how he comes out will tell the tale.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by papillon

If he runs fast early, he loses. If he runs slow early, he loses. If he runs moderately, he has to hope he can get 12f better than all the horses surrounding him also running moderately.

Trust me, I know more about energy distribution then most.

I put nothing into this work, or any works really. Good horses work fast/easy, let me know when they dont, then we can talk about it as meaning something. I just do not subscribe that this horse is slow beyond 6F...just silly talk.

[Vinnie]

Nicely stated GMB@BP:

What evidence is present that would make anyone believe that any three year old horse currently out there is faster than this horse at 9.5, 10 or even 12 furlongs depending on how the actual race is run. If Justify runs a bunch of panels in around 12 seconds or better which of course he is more than capable of doing, this race could turn into a potential route come June 9th. Could he lose the race, of course he can. But, I believe that he has an excellent chance of getting it done.

[dilanesp]

Justify is a good horse from a barn who historically works its horses fast, so I expect that he would work fast. And given that Baffert has won the Belmont with Point Given and American Pharoah, and lost it by a nose with Real Quiet, and is America's best trainer (at least on dirt) I wouldn't worry that he doesn't know how to prepare the horse.

I think he's going to lose, but I don't think it will be because of anything Baffert did or didn't do.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Vinnie

Nicely stated GMB@BP:

What evidence is present that would make anyone believe that any three year old horse currently out there is faster than this horse at 9.5, 10 or even 12 furlongs depending on how the actual race is run. If Justify runs a bunch of panels in around 12 seconds or better which of course he is more than capable of doing, this race could turn into a potential route come June 9th. Could he lose the race, of course he can. But, I believe that he has an excellent chance of getting it done.

My feeling is this is an exceptional horse but one that could be beaten given the distance and amount of running in such a short time.

This race probably will not actually tell us much about Justify if he loses, just that the issues he faces may play out, if he wins I suppose it would tell us more than a loss.

I think we will have to see more races after a loss to verify if he is indeed "slow".

[f2tornado]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

. I just do not subscribe that this horse is slow beyond 6F...just silly talk.

The horse certainly flashed a brilliant final 3/8th in the Santa Anita Derby but also failed to come remotely close to it going longer. He did run very fast early in Kentucky at the expense of pedestrian closing. He pretty much walked home in the Preakness as well. Brisnet LP figures have descended two races in a row. Not a trend I'd be excited about. On the plus side, Belmont can be favorable for his at or near the lead style. He can win but if recent past is prologue, he will be absolutely crawling to to the wire in one of the slowest Belmont renewals in history.

[Robert Fischer]

Isn't Papillion and f2tornado the same person as LoneF?

[Blenheim]

Originally Posted by papillon

American Pharoah worked in a 48, followed by 1:00, which is would seem exactly what you want. Like all Belmont winners, his fractions were metronome-like, which is basically how he did everything.

Interesting . . .

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

American Pharoah worked twice for the Belmont.

Once on May 26, 10 days after the Preakness and once on June 1st, 5 days before the Belmont.

Yes.

But, isn't it amazing that Justify is seemingly now on that same schedule?

And you had me on here saying that a good 'barometer' to tell whether Justify would win uncontested, or whether have to attempt to gut-out a winning race in the Belmont(similar to what he had to do in the Preakness), was whether or not he could post a single 4F work roughly aligned with the timing of Pharoah's final Belmont work.

If he were to turn in 1 good work, we'd know his condition was much improved.

The fact that they've decided to match Pharoah's 2-work schedule is even beyond the ceiling of my conservative estimate. He's ahead of even the more optimistic range of what I had projected for him.

Wow.

Expect him to run a performance as good or better than he did in the Santa Anita Derby or the Kentucky Derby Derby. He has bounced back amazingly well. He's going to be near 100% in the Belmont, and he may actually have a better hoof/shoe to run on from the top-of-the-stretch through the wire. We may see his best yet.

[SkunkApe]

Wayne Lucas hinted a little today about Justify’s ability to get the Belmont distance:

Of Justify's work, Lukas said: "His efficiency of motion is so good and so effortless. That work today, I thought he could have gone in :50 the way he did it. It was just effortless, there was no effort at all. When you have that efficiency of motion like that, I think the mile and a half is well within his scope."

http://https://www.horseracingnation..._in_Preakness#