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05-20-2018, 10:43 AM
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#106
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fager Fan
If you believe that fig is accurate. I find it questionable.
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I absolutely trust CJ to make pace figures. He already said the entire day was very consistent.
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05-20-2018, 10:54 AM
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#107
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,559
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If he settles into a 3-week routine and then runs any kind of a good looking work before the Belmont, - it will be an absolute walkover.
If he has to be shipped around, medicated up, deal with another injury and have his foot re-constricted again, while limited to slow jogs, and one stiff gallop the day before the race like he did up to the Preakness, he'll probably win, but he may have to be pushed really hard again.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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05-20-2018, 10:55 AM
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#108
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 7,656
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Quote:
Originally Posted by depalma113
Only 4 horses lined up to face him so far.
Bravazo, Vino Rosso, Hofburg and Free Drop Billy.
If that's the field, he isn't losing unless he falls down.
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This is early possibles.... I can't imagine only 4 lining up to face Justify.
https://www.horseracingnation.com/ne...akes_2018_123#
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05-20-2018, 11:26 AM
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#109
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Spaghetti Junction and Frustration Blvd.
Posts: 1,901
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SecretAgentMan
Have you ever seen the size of Smarty Jones? He was a smaller horse, Justify is huge.......Smarty was all heart, Justify is phenomenal specimen. If he's healthy & is galloping nicely, he has a great chance to win the triple crown.
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Very true. My sentiments mirror yours sir. Is he up against it, YES!! Any horse with such a phenomenal opportunity finding himself in the same spot in a similar circumstance is, however, it would be Awesome to see him get it done in another three weeks... GO JUSTIFY!!
__________________
Warm Regards,
Vinnie
"All Human error is impatience; a premature renunciation of method"- F. Kafka
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05-20-2018, 11:36 AM
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#110
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2001
Location: Spaghetti Junction and Frustration Blvd.
Posts: 1,901
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Quote:
Originally Posted by depalma113
I didn't get to play this weekend because my father passed away. Way too many important family issues to deal with to worry about betting a horse race. I did get to watch it though. Good race.
I did post somewhere last week that I thought it was a race between Justify and Good Magic with Bravazo as the only horse with a chance to pull the upset. So I don't get any money this week, but I'm happy my handicapping was spot on and I needed a little happy right now.
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Very sorry to hear of the recent loss of your father. Your family is in my prayers depalma113. Nothing but excellent karma and good tidings to you and your family moving forward sir.
__________________
Warm Regards,
Vinnie
"All Human error is impatience; a premature renunciation of method"- F. Kafka
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05-20-2018, 12:45 PM
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#111
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blenheim
In a span of 43 days, Calumet’s Whirlaway raced in the Bluegrass, Derby Trial, Kentucky Derby, Preakness, an Allowance race and the Belmont Stakes. In between the Bluegrass and the Derby Trial, he worked 10 fl in 2:07.2.5! Back then, the Preakness ran one week later. Today’s horse would lose by default because they couldn’t keep up w/the schedule. Horse ran 16 times as a two-year-old.
Different time, different type . . .
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I disagree. The reason trainers don't do this anymore is because big money owners don't want losses on the record. Nothing has changed about the horses. They could take a tougher schedule.
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05-20-2018, 01:10 PM
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#112
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 1,755
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
If he settles into a 3-week routine and then runs any kind of a good looking work before the Belmont, - it will be an absolute walkover.
If he has to be shipped around, medicated up, deal with another injury and have his foot re-constricted again, while limited to slow jogs, and one stiff gallop the day before the race like he did up to the Preakness, he'll probably win, but he may have to be pushed really hard again.
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I agree.Lets see how Baffert prepares him before making any judgements.
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05-20-2018, 01:26 PM
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#113
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2018
Posts: 445
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Wonder what happened to Runaway Ghost and his injury (shin hairline fracture). I would like to see him run against Justify and Bravazo. The Awesome Again - Ghostzapper horses. But doesn't seem like the kind of race to run right after an injury at all. Maybe some day. But after this I assume Justify will be out to stud and maybe surpassing Ghostzapper's sire fee record While the syndicate looks for their next K derby contender.
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05-20-2018, 02:06 PM
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#114
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Posts: 1,957
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Secondbest
I agree.Lets see how Baffert prepares him before making any judgements.
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If something goes amiss, the pressure on Baffert to run him will be enormous, and it'll be tough to overcome the Triple Crown fever. Since there are no longer any huge bonuses for winning the TC, one can hope that it will allow the horsemen to be a bit more sensible and do what's best for their horse.
We've seen many get caught up in Derby fever, and the result is there are way too horses running each year over their heads - and often to the detriment of their career. For a horse to be sound enough to make a start in all three Triple Crown races makes a case for their soundness, which again can be an enticement to run when the horse is indicating a Belmont may not be best for them.
As for who to toss, I'll be leaning to toss Bravazo, especially if the track is fast. I'm not a big fan of Lukas to begin with, and lost a lot of respect for him when he ran Winning Colors in the Belmont, with nothing to prove, no bonus on the line, and very minimal breeding concerns since she was a filly. Fortunately, she was able to bounce back and run big in the Breeders Cup, but that may have been in spite of him. "The Coach" admits he likes the big stage, and now we have a rare circumstance where a horse running over his head turns out to be competitive - putting the quality of the crop as being suspect rather than "way better than average", the opinion held by many going into the Derby.
Justify may offer no value in the Belmont, and he may have been tired and near the end of his form cycle - or not. Like Thask, I'll wait to see how the field shapes up, but there's no denying Justify's running style and his accomplishments so far make it tougher to see an upset.
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05-20-2018, 02:10 PM
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#115
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 8,798
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The bonus isn't the reason people run injured horses for the TC. Majestic Prince ran injured with no bonus.
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05-20-2018, 03:15 PM
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#116
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 5,222
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rex Phinney
Justify is not going to have to work early on in the Belmont as he did today.
Of course Bravaso and others looked great closing but that’s only because they had Good Magic to soften Justify up. I don’t think there is anyone else in this crop who can push him that hard that long. I don’t think Good Magic will run in the Belmont, this poses a problem if you’re trying to beat Justify.
The way the Belmont is run these days is slow to start and even slower to finish. The guts that Justify showed today tells me betting against him could be a mistake. Those conditions today where awful, and it’s the second time in 14 days he’s dealt with it and he hasn’t blinked yet.
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They're not awful conditions for a horse who likes it, which Justify clearly does.
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05-20-2018, 03:18 PM
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#117
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 5,222
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
I absolutely trust CJ to make pace figures. He already said the entire day was very consistent.
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And totally out of line with Beyer. We'll see what TG and Ragozin do, but I'll bet they back up Beyer.
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05-20-2018, 03:19 PM
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#118
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Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 5,222
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dilanesp
I disagree. The reason trainers don't do this anymore is because big money owners don't want losses on the record. Nothing has changed about the horses. They could take a tougher schedule.
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That's not true. Horses have a harder time staying together now.
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05-20-2018, 03:22 PM
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#119
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2003
Location: Dark Side of the Moon
Posts: 5,870
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fager Fan
And totally out of line with Beyer. We'll see what TG and Ragozin do, but I'll bet they back up Beyer.
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I have made my feelings about the Beyer figures in recent years, especially at the top end of races, I think they are often too low for the Graded horses.
I trust the figures CJ has made for well over a decade.
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05-20-2018, 03:28 PM
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#120
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Resurrectionist
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: Cheyenne, Wy
Posts: 3,615
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
If he settles into a 3-week routine and then runs any kind of a good looking work before the Belmont, - it will be an absolute walkover.
If he has to be shipped around, medicated up, deal with another injury and have his foot re-constricted again, while limited to slow jogs, and one stiff gallop the day before the race like he did up to the Preakness, he'll probably win, but he may have to be pushed really hard again.
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Robert,
Spot on post!!!!
__________________
Battle is the most magnificent competition in which a human being can indulge. It brings out all that is best; it removes all that is base. All men are afraid in battle. The coward is the one who lets his fear overcome his sense of duty. Duty is the essence of manhood.
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