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Old 11-19-2018, 09:45 AM   #1
Andy Asaro
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Wednesday’s Aqueduct Card Features Triple Pick 6, NYRA Bets Late Pick 5 Carryovers

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Old 11-21-2018, 12:20 PM   #2
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Scratches

Race 2 #1 Ride On Faith
Race 4 #4 American Commander
Race 5 #1 Dawn the Destroyer, #3 Tanya's Gem
Race 6 #2 Flat Out Jayvien, #3 Decadence
Race 7 #1 Zealous
Race 9 #5 Extinct Charm, #13 Brimstone, #14 Eden Ridge


Track Conditions: Fast
Turf Conditions: Firm
Weather: 42.0 Mostly Cloudy
Last Update: November 21 2018, 9:00:02 AM PT
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Old 11-21-2018, 12:23 PM   #3
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smart money on that in the 1st...
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Old 11-21-2018, 12:26 PM   #4
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Aqueduct - Race #4

Picks Notes
#1 Demarchelier Brown firster is by superstar sire Dubawi, drew perfectly, meets a modest cast of proven runners, and has the look of a potential star; could be a real freak.

#3 Seismic Wave Mott charge was a good 3rd over yielding ground on debut for a barn that never cranks them, though he'll need to move forward to get to the pick; next time.

#8 Malthael Improving Clement hoss was a good 2nd when Lasix was added, and another move forward would make him a threat, though it's no guarantee; tread lightly.

Race Summary You won't see anything close to the 7-2 ML on the pick, as he figures to be bet off the board for these connections with that pedigree, but we start the double-carryover Pk6 here, and singling at the start will allow for more coverage in the tougher legs, as this seems like one that won't be much of a contest, provided the money shows. If on dirt: 3-8-6
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Old 11-21-2018, 12:31 PM   #5
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https://www.nyra.com/aqueduct/racing...#BlogPost21152


Picks & Plays for Wednesday, November 21
by David Aragona


For more on this card, visit DRF Live for up-to-date insights throughout the race day. Also visit TimeformUS to view this card’s Highlight Horse and get PPs.

PICKS

Race 1: 3 - 7 - 2 - 5
Race 2: 5 - 6 - 2 - 4
Race 3: 5 - 3 - 1 - 4
Race 4: 9 - 1 - 8 - 7
Race 5: 3 - 2 - 7 - 4
Race 6: 9 - 7 - 1 - 8
Race 7: 1A - 2 - 7 - 3
Race 8: 5 - 2 - 9 - 4
Race 9: 1 - 11 - 9 - 4

TOP PLAYS

RACE 3: PETE’S PLAY CALL (#5)
Timber Ghost is clearly the horse to beat as he attempts to win his third straight race since returning from a layoff this summer. He has earned impressive speed figures in both of those victories and may not need to improve at all to defeat this tougher group. However, he has also benefitted from very favorable circumstances in those recent wins. TimeformUS has the dirt surfaces color-coded red, indicating speed biases, for each of those starts. It’s unclear if he can put in a top effort without the early lead, and he’s unlikely to get it here with Still Krz in the race. I’m using him, but I think others will offer better value. I’m most interested in a horse exiting the Sep. 29 race at this level. Both the winner and runner-up beat the bias, as that was yet another day at Belmont Park that was favoring horses racing on the rail. Runner-up Pete's Play Call has steadily been rounding back into form for Robertino Diodoro and I thought he ran just as well as the winner last time. At his best, Pete’s Play Call is one of the few horses in this field fast enough to beat Timber Ghost. Notably, he ran the best race of his career over this surface at this distance last November. On that occasion he was a game second to the talented Favorable Outcome after stalking the pace from close range. This tenacious son of Munnings seems to run his best races when he’s able to stay in contention throughout a race, and the predicted slow pace of this race should allow him to be forwardly placed in the early going.

Win: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,3,4
Trifecta: 5 with 1,3 with ALL


RACE 4: SEA OF HOPE (#9)
This race demonstrates the current demand for turf racing on the NYRA circuit. Poor weather has forced the cancellation of so many races like this, so you wind up with full fields seemingly loaded with quality. Among those with experience, Malthael and Seismic Wave are the two likely to attract the most support. Malthael is probably the horse to beat off the strength of his runner-up finish behind Empire of War last time. That runner has already returned to win a stakes and Malthael finished many lengths clear of the rest of the field. The only knock against him is that he did ride a strong rail bias that day, but I would argue that his prior turf effort was also a strong performance. Seismic Wave ran well within the context of his debut, as he was off slowly and knifed between horses with a strong late rally in the stretch to just miss. However, that race came up very slow for the level, so he must prove that he can replicate that effort against a stronger field. There are a number of well-bred first time starters among this group, and none are more intriguing than the British-bred Demarchelier. Chad Brown and Peter Brant purchased this colt from the Tattersalls sale for nearly $600,000. His pedigree for turf is stellar, as he’s by top international sire Dubawi out of a dam who is a full-sister to Group 1 winners Yesterday and Quarter Moon. I’m definitely using him, but the one that I want to bet is Sea of Hope. While David Cohen has been the regular rider on Clement’s other runner, Malthael, I nevertheless find it interesting that Clement has given the mount on Sea of Hope to Irad Ortiz. Clement has given fewer mounts to Ortiz in recent months, but they have historically done well together, as the 95 TimeformUS Trainer Rating for this pairing attests. Sea of Hope is certainly bred to handle turf as a son of Quality Road out of a dam who earned nearly $400,000 racing primarily on turf and synthetic surfaces. This robust colt has made a nice impression in the morning and seems ready to put forth a solid effort in his debut. At a much bigger price, I also want to include longshot Bronxville in my exotic wagers. This Ray Handal runner showed some speed in his debut and has some sneaky turf pedigree.

Win: 9
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,3,7,8


RACE 5: TANYA’S GEM (#3)
This is a particularly tricky race, since the runners that figure to attract the most support appear to be somewhat vulnerable. Mrs. Ramona G looks like one of the most reliable options after winning at the N1X allowance level in her first start back off a layoff last time. However, that recent victory is also likely to drive down her price. While this is an unusually weak race for this level, she still may have to run faster to beat this field. It’s unclear that she can do so after benefitting from a perfect trip last time. I’m using her, but I think others will offer better value. One alternative that many handicappers will gravitate towards is Nomorerichblondes. While both of her starts in this country have been disappointing, she is bred to move up on turf. Both of her siblings won on the grass, though they were progeny of Kitten’s Joy and she is a daughter of Hard Spun. She may indeed step forward on the turf, but it’s somewhat concerning that her prior trainers never raced her on grass. I also think you’re taking the worst of it in terms of value. I’m most interested in a horse exiting the Oct. 26 race at this level. That was a tougher field than this one and it featured a very fast pace, so Go Astray and Tanya’s Gem both merit consideration after chasing the quick fractions. While Go Astray raced just ahead of Tanya’s Gem in the early going and staved her off in the lane to be fourth, I actually think the latter filly is more interesting this time. The TimeformUS Pace Projector actually shows Tanya’s Gem on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner, and she has indeed shown superior speed in prior starts. Tanya’s Gem ran deceptively well last time. She didn’t break that sharply, and I thought Dylan Davis spent too much time keeping her inside behind tiring runners before trying to rally up the rail in the stretch. This time, Davis just has to send her into a forward position and she should be in with a big chance. Unlike Go Astray, Tanya’s Gem has prior turf form that makes her competitive here. She ran deceptively well in the two-turn Dahlia behind Hallie Belle and Hawksmoor earlier this year and was badly overmatched against some of the best female turf sprinters in the country back in June. Her recent efforts for this trainer suggest that she’s back in top form.

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 2,4,6,7


RACE 8: HOROSCOPE (#5)
Blewitt did little wrong when he began his career over this track last winter, falling just a neck short of sweeping his first three races. He earned impressive speed figures in each of those wins and would be a formidable favorite in this race were he to return in top form. However, Todd Pletcher’s recent record in New York is of great concern to me, especially given the fact that this horse is likely to go off at a short price. Over the past year at NYRA, Todd Pletcher is just 14 for 78 (18 percent, $0.94 ROI) with 4-year-old and older non-maidens on the dirt. While he’s done well off layoffs going back a number of years, his recent statistics – especially at NYRA – are far worse. I’ll use this horse defensively, but others will offer better value. Morning Breez seems like a viable alternative of his career-best speed figure on Oct. 13. He recorded that number while running back on just 2 days’ rest, so it remains to be seen if that unusual schedule will negatively impact this subsequent effort. I think this is a race where we can look outside the box, so I want to take a shot with Horoscope at a price. I realize that he lost to two rivals that he meets again in his last race, but I can excuse his performance given the sloppy track conditions. Prior to that, Horoscope ran deceptively well in both of his starts at Saratoga. He closed well on Aug. 29 despite getting an ill-conceived ride from off the pace, and he was negatively affected by a dead rail on Aug. 5. I’ve always thought shorter distances were better for this horse, so I like that Rudy Rodriguez is finally focusing on sprints with him. He will likely get ignored here and I think he has a chance to outrun his odds from a stalking position.

Win/Place: 5
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,4,6,9
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Old 11-21-2018, 01:30 PM   #6
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305K in new money with 17 minutes to post. Not bad.
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Old 11-21-2018, 01:49 PM   #7
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Here we go. Good luck to everyone taking a shot.











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Old 11-21-2018, 01:52 PM   #8
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Eff me. 3 just had to lug in.

New money pool ended up at $1,308,902

Pick 5 pool opens at $57,824

Good luck.

Last edited by Andy Asaro; 11-21-2018 at 01:58 PM.
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Old 11-21-2018, 02:24 PM   #9
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P5 new money ended up $166,864
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Old 11-21-2018, 03:25 PM   #10
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Well, I'm still as hot as I was the last few months. December 26th can't come fast enough.
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