Target Betting

[garyscpa]

Originally Posted by Cratos

Not really if you read and understand the last sentence of his post.
It is the logic that I was addressing.

I think the others will understand.

[romankoz]

Hi Sean,
Yes, EJ would be smiling. I am sorry I don't remember you but perhaps an alias is at work.

I don't remember the experiment by LL but was it target betting? I know EJ and I did an experiment with a staking plan he called "The Missile" over 1400 bets based on the paper poll in "The Australian" newspaper. I have it somewhere on a memory stick, I think.

We thought 1400 bets was fairly realistic at about 8 races per Saturday but when it showed a profit all the mathematicians said 14000 would have been better. Naturally the word infinity came into discussion as that is always the fall back position for the mathematicians.

I always chuckled when it was said "you can never win on a staking plan if there is no Profit On Turnover (ROI)" as that was supposed to be absolute. Naturally when I said what about 1 unit profit on a million bets. That's a profit!

The silly doubling up, martingale, Labouchre etc plans are not what I am talking about.

I am about seeking a target (1 unit) and let's call the unit $0.10c betting on well fancied horses at 15/8 (US$5.80) and less for the win and at 2/1 (US $6) or longer for the place which is 1st 2nd and 3rd in Oz in most field sizes. The bank needs to be at least 1000 times the unit (for serious form students) but 2000 would be ultra safe, so that's a bank of $200 based on a minimum bet size of $0.50c. Use a divisor of 2. Here in OZ you can obtain the best odds of the three parimutel systems.

A safety brake of "when I have 10% POT on any series of bets I draw the line and start afresh" with a new series is a major key for operating this staking plan. The idea is profits albeit small ones add up.

A more confident selector, and I guess I am one of them, could drop the safety rule.

Forget the maths rules governing the world. Mathematically in a series of 100 bets I could have 50 losers followed by 50 collects at around the 1/1 mark or a tad less. Is there anyone who actually believes their selections would go that badly around 1/1 bets in ANY series of 100 bets in the HORSERACING WORLD??? Come on!

At roulette yes I would believe it - in horseracing, no way.

[Dave Schwartz]

Hi Dave,
There is no point bringing roulette or craps or any other similar betting "thing" into the discussion because it's like comparing apples and oranges. Both are round and enjoyable to eat but the tastes are different.

You are right in the sense that your chances are probably far better at roulette than at horse racing UNLESS YOU HAVE AN ADVANTAGE.

So many novices seem to think that because the game is theoretically beatable by SOMEONE that this automatically means it is beatable by THEM.

The long and short of this is that if you are a winning player - that is, you have a winning methodology - this betting system will work for you as will any other.

If you are not a winning player - that is, if you approach does not produce flat-bet profitability - you WILL LOSE.

There is NO way I would be target betting at a casino. The machine will win and the run of outs can be astronomical even at 1/1. Every bet at a casino is independent of previous bets because there is no form. I look at it this way. If I have five losers in a row at 1/1 in roulette I have no confidence my next collect will come soon. If I have five losers at 1/1 at horseracing I am confident my winner will come soon because I know my selections aren't that bad for too long. That doesn't mean I go the silly all up path though.

The bolded statement above shows how skewed your belief system is from the mathematical reality of the situation.

Horse racing is a machine as well. And a well-oiled one at that.


Look, I am not trying to be argumentative here. Clearly you believe what you believe. You posted it here because you assumed that you'd find a lot of people agreed with you.

Truthfully, we ALL root for you to win. Why? because if that is all it takes, we'll all just go become winning players with it. I am not above doing this.

I truly wish you will, but doubt that the future of your endeavor is a rosy one.

Please report back your end result.


Regards,
Dave Schwartz

[Harvhorse]

I knew a guy at the track who would aim to make one hundred dollars per race, be it win , exacta or any bet he would bet an amount to return his target 100.00