Time To Investigate

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by GMB@BP

havent really been a horse player, not sure what everyone else's excuse.

I had not watched your show in over 3 years till last weekend. You guys do a first class production.

For someone claiming to no longer be a horse player, and obviously I've known you a long time, you know way more than the average player.

Thanks.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by the little guy

For someone claiming to no longer be a horse player, and obviously I've known you a long time, you know way more than the average player.

Thanks.

I do, but mostly just following stakes horses and the such, not the finer points of the gambling aspect, and even that is gleaned from twitter or message boards so take that for what it is.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

Thanks, that's what I have doing for over 35 years , though it's CAA, computer assisted analysis. I have thousands of wps and exacta tote board data files. The link is interesting. Thanks again

You're a spectator, they are participants. Apples and bowling balls Formula.

[Poindexter]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Let's see....we didn't bar CAW play from the win pool. We told them they couldn't bet into that pool with less than two minutes to post and they, in turn, said that wouldn't work for them so they stopped playing in that pool. As far as the win pools going up as a result....no, that would be incorrect.

I missed this. I know you posted they can't bet after 2 minutes to post (although I thought it was 3 minutes). Did not realized they opted to stay out of the pool altogether. Is this Win/Place/Show or Win only? That would mean they are replicating their straight bets through the exotics (exactas mainly). Would also mean that the exotic pools would be painfully more efficient that the Win or WPS pools(whichever it is).

Assuming this to be correct that would mean there would be some huge disparities in the exacta pools and the straight pools. As a rule the exacta payoff should be somewhat close Prince of winner * what the 2nd place horse paid to place. Did glance at yesterdays exacta payoffs and saw a couple races where there were major differences.

Just curious what has been the effect of all of this on the average win pools vs the average exacta pools since this began. Moreover how common knowledge is this?. If what you say is true, a win bet at NYRA is the best bet in racing. It is like going to a poker room and seeing an open seat at 2 tables. One has all pros and the other has all random people. Which table are you sitting at if you actually wanted to make money. Shoot, I might even start betting Nyra now. Just focus on the win pool.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

I missed this. I know you posted they can't bet after 2 minutes to post (although I thought it was 3 minutes). Did not realized they opted to stay out of the pool altogether. Is this Win/Place/Show or Win only? That would mean they are replicating their straight bets through the exotics (exactas mainly). Would also mean that the exotic pools would be painfully more efficient that the Win or WPS pools(whichever it is).

Assuming this to be correct that would mean there would be some huge disparities in the exacta pools and the straight pools. As a rule the exacta payoff should be somewhat close Prince of winner * what the 2nd place horse paid to place. Did glance at yesterdays exacta payoffs and saw a couple races where there were major differences.

Just curious what has been the effect of all of this on the average win pools vs the average exacta pools since this began. Moreover how common knowledge is this?. If what you say is true, a win bet at NYRA is the best bet in racing. It is like going to a poker room and seeing an open seat at 2 tables. One has all pros and the other has all random people. Which table are you sitting at if you actually wanted to make money. Shoot, I might even start betting Nyra now. Just focus on the win pool.

I agree with you about the frequent value in the win pool, at least in regards to verticals and horizontals. Then again, in a zero sum, less takeout, game, if some are relative value, others will not be, but there certainly are relative inefficiencies in many races. I have explained this on Twitter, and on the air, and probably here at least a couple of times, when people say an exacta came back low. They can be very separate pools. While I prefer it this way, I had gotten used to saying "well, I know this horse is 4:1 ( say two minutes to post ) but given the doubles it will be no more than 8:5 at post." No longer works that way.

It frustrates me that I have been relaying this for over a year, and it seems so few people heard it, but I suppose that's pretty much a case of the things closest to us taking on a greater importance than they do to others.

[Sea Hero]

Originally Posted by the little guy

No, it's CAW play "normalizing" the odds to their algorithm.

So, you don't play NYRA in the Winter, despite it being the second biggest handle in the country, but play Gulfstream, where it's handle contains over twice the percentage of CAW play than Aqueduct's handle? Just trying to understand.

I don't play NYRA during the winter for the same reason I don't play Florida in the summer. I focus on the better 2 year olds and early 3 year olds, and there aren't many of those at winter Aqueduct or summer Gulfstream. Of course, there are tons at Keeneland (spring). I play SoCal (except Los Al) because I do well there.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Sea Hero

I don't play NYRA during the winter for the same reason I don't play Florida in the summer. I focus on the better 2 year olds and early 3 year olds, and there aren't many of those at winter Aqueduct or summer Gulfstream. Of course, there are tons at Keeneland (spring). I play SoCal (except Los Al) because I do well there.

This isn't really true but whatever.

[classhandicapper]

What was the date the CAWs stopped playing in the WPS pools at NYRA?

I’d like to do some studies on the efficiency of those pools relative to the past.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by Sea Hero

I don't play NYRA during the winter for the same reason I don't play Florida in the summer. I focus on the better 2 year olds and early 3 year olds, and there aren't many of those at winter Aqueduct or summer Gulfstream. Of course, there are tons at Keeneland (spring). I play SoCal (except Los Al) because I do well there.

if it was up to me, i would offer the CAW access to their high speed betting with 1 minute to post if that's how you can get their money in the pools. i was seeing $600,000 win pools in maiden races at Saratoga this summer on their bigger handle days. that's pretty good in my world for now!

[Poindexter]

The math on this goes something like this. We will ignore breakage. I will assume that the CAWs were wagering 35% of the pool at about -3%. I will assume based off of what TLG said that they are down to maybe 10% of the pool and will assume they lose the same 3%. Now before on a $100,000 win (and yes only the win pool is sans Caw) pool the CAW would lose about $1050 (getting more back with rebates) and the public would lose $14,950 on $65,000 or 23% on a 16% take. Now with the Caw only betting 10,000 in a $10,000 pool, they lose $300 and the public loses $15,700 on $90,000 bet or about 17.45%. That is a huge 5.5% difference in takeout. Now I don’t know the exact numbers but I think these numbers are in the ballpark. Moreover, the fact you don’t have caw ironing the heck out of the lines make NYRA a lot more like old school horse racing where it is you against the public, but admittedly the general public is a lot more informed today then they were in 1970. I have to believe that unlike 2 years ago, the opportunity for the layman to make money in the win pool at NYRA likely exists now. TLG says the late odds swings are nothing like they were so that is a huge extra bonus. This is a tremendous opportunity and I hope they stick with it.


A final note to TLG. Honestly not playing horses right now so I don’t watch any of your broadcasts, so I don’t know how much your on air folks talk about this, but you guys need to really hammer this home. Less sophisticated bettors should not be looking to hit pick 4’s and pick 5’s and pick 6’s.They are just going to donate and they will lose interest in $8.00 and $10.00 horses. They can just as easily make round robin plays keying horses that they feel offer good value. For horse racing I like a 2 out 4 approach. If they don’t find a 3rd or 4th horse they can continue it the next time they play the races. A 2 of 4 approach means they parlay 1 to 2, 1 to 3, 1 to 4, 2 to 3, 2 to 4, 3 to 4. 6 parlays at say $10 each. They need to hit 2 out 4 to get anything back. If they hit 2 of 4 winners they will hit one parlay (so if it is a 2-1 and 3-1, they will get back $120 for their $60). If they hit 3 of 4 top choices they will hit 3 parlays (if it is a 2-1, 3-1 and 4-1 they will get back 120+150+200 or $470). If they hit all 4 horses they will hit all 6 parlays (if it is a 2-1, 3-1, 4-1, 2-1 they will get back 120+150+90+200+120+150 or $830 for their $60 bet). Moreover as they hit winners, they are betting more money in Nyra win pools. With more attractive odds in the win pools, comes a lot of wagering opportunities in the wins pools if the player is creative.

Which leads me to a promotion I think would be very cool. I would like to see a 10% bonus on 3 horse parlays. First off it gets your market focusing on the win pools and looking for good win bets. But it goes something like this. Keeping the example really simple. Say 1000 people bet a $10 3 horse parlay with the knowledge they would get a 10% bonus if they hit. Lets assume that they are all parlaying 3 horses that are 3-1 odds but have a 20% chance of win. Just keeping the numbers simple. So on the 1st bet you have a $10,000 in win bets. 200 parlays are still alive and they get back $40 each. So next you have $8000 bet on the 2nd leg where 20% hit and 40 parlays are still alive and they are worth $160 each. So next you have $6400 bet on the 3rd leg, where 20% hit that and you have 8 winning parlays worth $640 each. So now you have to pay out $64*8 or $512 in bonuses to the players that hit. But that promotion generated $24,400 in handle (so the cost of the promotion was slightly over 2 % of the handle generated). Obviously, some will bet favorites, others longshots….but don’t see how this type of promotion would not work very well for Nyra and focus it’s customer to where his money needs to go to succeed in this game, the Win pool. How many people who lose leg 1 and lose leg 2 would then be betting there horses because they spent the time and decided they liked them. How much extra handle does that create? Obviously this could be limited to $10 or $20 parlay or whatever they decide, but I would play this promotion often, if it was offered. It’s free money and seems to me that it is a promotion where everyone benefits. Needless to say I would not offer this to the Whales (they are doing just fine), just us ordinary folks.

[Poindexter]

Which brings me to a question. A lot of you play NYRA. Are you seeing better results in your win betting? Are you seeing more stable odds? Does the game seems easier now (in the win pool). The answer should be yes to all three. Just wondering if and how that is playing out. This has been going on for quite a while now. By the way Lambo, I know your the king of the babies and you eat the whales for your midnight snack, but I am speaking to the mere mortals.

[Michael]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

Which brings me to a question. A lot of you play NYRA. Are you seeing better results in your win betting? Are you seeing more stable odds? Does the game seems easier now (in the win pool). The answer should be yes to all three. Just wondering if and how that is playing out. This has been going on for quite a while now. By the way Lambo, I know your the king of the babies and you eat the whales for your midnight snack, but I am speaking to the mere mortals.

The ONLY reason I'm currently playing the NY curcuit is bc of the caw cut off. I have strong feelings about the current state of horse racing, and I'm convinced the sport will remain in a perpetual catabolic state if it doesn't change. Long story short... takeout is the primary reason the sport WILL NOT grow. (it's impossible) If you leave the high takeout as is... rebates will be extended to players and you'll destroy the player pool. By keeping the takeout high the industry is more or less promoting a parasitic environment. These rebates destroy everyday betting opportunities and slowly by slowly the player base will eat it's own and fester. The industry needs to provide an anabolic environment to grow. It's longevity or Die.

By extension, the caw is the elephant in the room that's simply feeding off of the host. NYRA was correct in their decision. Every track will eventually lower the takeout or will need to find other avenues of revenue. Most tracks will go bankrupt and die off.

[Dave Schwartz]

Question for everyone
What is YOUR definition of CAW?

• Anyone who uses a computer to HANDICAP?
• Anyone who uses a computer to FIRE BETS?
• Anyone who uses a computer to FIRE MANY BETS?
  
• SOMETHING ELSE?

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Poindexter

The math on this goes something like this. We will ignore breakage. I will assume that the CAWs were wagering 35% of the pool at about -3%. I will assume based off of what TLG said that they are down to maybe 10% of the pool and will assume they lose the same 3%. Now before on a $100,000 win (and yes only the win pool is sans Caw) pool the CAW would lose about $1050 (getting more back with rebates) and the public would lose $14,950 on $65,000 or 23% on a 16% take. Now with the Caw only betting 10,000 in a $10,000 pool, they lose $300 and the public loses $15,700 on $90,000 bet or about 17.45%. That is a huge 5.5% difference in takeout. Now I don’t know the exact numbers but I think these numbers are in the ballpark. Moreover, the fact you don’t have caw ironing the heck out of the lines make NYRA a lot more like old school horse racing where it is you against the public, but admittedly the general public is a lot more informed today then they were in 1970. I have to believe that unlike 2 years ago, the opportunity for the layman to make money in the win pool at NYRA likely exists now. TLG says the late odds swings are nothing like they were so that is a huge extra bonus. This is a tremendous opportunity and I hope they stick with it.


A final note to TLG. Honestly not playing horses right now so I don’t watch any of your broadcasts, so I don’t know how much your on air folks talk about this, but you guys need to really hammer this home. Less sophisticated bettors should not be looking to hit pick 4’s and pick 5’s and pick 6’s.They are just going to donate and they will lose interest in $8.00 and $10.00 horses. They can just as easily make round robin plays keying horses that they feel offer good value. For horse racing I like a 2 out 4 approach. If they don’t find a 3rd or 4th horse they can continue it the next time they play the races. A 2 of 4 approach means they parlay 1 to 2, 1 to 3, 1 to 4, 2 to 3, 2 to 4, 3 to 4. 6 parlays at say $10 each. They need to hit 2 out 4 to get anything back. If they hit 2 of 4 winners they will hit one parlay (so if it is a 2-1 and 3-1, they will get back $120 for their $60). If they hit 3 of 4 top choices they will hit 3 parlays (if it is a 2-1, 3-1 and 4-1 they will get back 120+150+200 or $470). If they hit all 4 horses they will hit all 6 parlays (if it is a 2-1, 3-1, 4-1, 2-1 they will get back 120+150+90+200+120+150 or $830 for their $60 bet). Moreover as they hit winners, they are betting more money in Nyra win pools. With more attractive odds in the win pools, comes a lot of wagering opportunities in the wins pools if the player is creative.

Which leads me to a promotion I think would be very cool. I would like to see a 10% bonus on 3 horse parlays. First off it gets your market focusing on the win pools and looking for good win bets. But it goes something like this. Keeping the example really simple. Say 1000 people bet a $10 3 horse parlay with the knowledge they would get a 10% bonus if they hit. Lets assume that they are all parlaying 3 horses that are 3-1 odds but have a 20% chance of win. Just keeping the numbers simple. So on the 1st bet you have a $10,000 in win bets. 200 parlays are still alive and they get back $40 each. So next you have $8000 bet on the 2nd leg where 20% hit and 40 parlays are still alive and they are worth $160 each. So next you have $6400 bet on the 3rd leg, where 20% hit that and you have 8 winning parlays worth $640 each. So now you have to pay out $64*8 or $512 in bonuses to the players that hit. But that promotion generated $24,400 in handle (so the cost of the promotion was slightly over 2 % of the handle generated). Obviously, some will bet favorites, others longshots….but don’t see how this type of promotion would not work very well for Nyra and focus it’s customer to where his money needs to go to succeed in this game, the Win pool. How many people who lose leg 1 and lose leg 2 would then be betting there horses because they spent the time and decided they liked them. How much extra handle does that create? Obviously this could be limited to $10 or $20 parlay or whatever they decide, but I would play this promotion often, if it was offered. It’s free money and seems to me that it is a promotion where everyone benefits. Needless to say I would not offer this to the Whales (they are doing just fine), just us ordinary folks.

thanks for the detailed post, well done.

[Michael]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Question for everyone
What is YOUR definition of CAW?

• Anyone who uses a computer to HANDICAP?
• Anyone who uses a computer to FIRE BETS?
• Anyone who uses a computer to FIRE MANY BETS?
  
• SOMETHING ELSE?

Teams that have direct access to the pools.