Time To Investigate

[Half Smoke]

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at Hawthorne last Sat. race 7 Doctor Oscar - ml 9/2 was bet down very late to 1/2 - but not too late to get on him at that price if you wanted him

if you're on your computer -

he didn't go lower after they broke - but obviously some do

but it looked like an inside play - although the horse was a pretty obvious pick -

it would have been very difficult or impossible to get on him that late trackside or at a simulcast facility

so, that's one thing that makes it a little better now - not that anyone is going to get fat on horses bet way down like that


.

[lamboguy]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

One of the major reasons that I concentrate my play on NYRA tracks. That, and it also happens to be the best racing in the country.

Parx (among others...like Horseshoe Indy) is one track where the odds plummet on some runners very late in the betting. I quit betting that track because of it.

i am not sure of this, but since NYRA barred the CAW from straight bets, i think the win pool has gone up in the handle. i wonder if any other track could discover this including the Mountain?

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i am not sure of this, but since NYRA barred the CAW from straight bets, i think the win pool has gone up in the handle. i wonder if any other track could discover this including the Mountain?

Let's see....we didn't bar CAW play from the win pool. We told them they couldn't bet into that pool with less than two minutes to post and they, in turn, said that wouldn't work for them so they stopped playing in that pool. As far as the win pools going up as a result....no, that would be incorrect.

[Sea Hero]

I doubt there's any past posting.

More likely it's everybody getting the same idea at the same time. They all see that juicy 8/5, all wait till the last second to see if the odds move, then all pile on, human and machine alike. KABOOM --- the 8/5 ends up at 2/5.

That's why I only play the tracks with the largest handles. NYRA not in the winter, Florida in the winter, SoCal when they aren't at Los Al, and Keeneland.

[the little guy]

Originally Posted by Sea Hero

I doubt there's any past posting.

More likely it's everybody getting the same idea at the same time. They all see that juicy 8/5, all wait till the last second to see if the odds move, then all pile on, human and machine alike. KABOOM --- the 8/5 ends up at 2/5.

That's why I only play the tracks with the largest handles. NYRA not in the winter, Florida in the winter, SoCal when they aren't at Los Al, and Keeneland.

No, it's CAW play "normalizing" the odds to their algorithm.

So, you don't play NYRA in the Winter, despite it being the second biggest handle in the country, but play Gulfstream, where it's handle contains over twice the percentage of CAW play than Aqueduct's handle? Just trying to understand.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by the little guy

Let's see....we didn't bar CAW play from the win pool. We told them they couldn't bet into that pool with less than two minutes to post and they, in turn, said that wouldn't work for them so they stopped playing in that pool. As far as the win pools going up as a result....no, that would be incorrect.

I didnt know that, its good information on the win pools.

Curious if anyone else has taken that position.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by usedtolovetvg

I am getting so tired of the odds changing well after the horses leave the gate. I haven't posted for a while but I just made a big bet on the 1 at MNR race 5. Leaving the gate the horse broke on top and the odds dropped to 3-1 from 7-2. OK, I can accept that. Turning for home the horse open up by 5 and miraculously the horse dropped from 3-1 to 6/5. I have seen this happen at many of the smaller tracks but MNR is the worst offender.

The bigger problem I'm seeing now is that the same shit is happening at NYRA and SoCal tracks. I think it is time for the feds to look into this and see wtf is going on. I am not a huge punter but this kind of activity is driving me away from the sport I love.

here is another way to look at it. suppose the 6/5 odds were closer to the true odds than yours. now suppose further that this "smart late money" left a bit of an edge on their $ play. you are a winner.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i am not sure of this, but since NYRA barred the CAW from straight bets, i think the win pool has gone up in the handle. i wonder if any other track could discover this including the Mountain?

I missed class that day. What is CAW?

[the little guy]

I’m puzzled how people are, apparently, just learning something that has been discussed multiple times on this board over the last 14 months. I always thought paying attention was an important part of being a horseplayer.

[mountainman]

Originally Posted by lamboguy

i am not sure of this, but since NYRA barred the CAW from straight bets, i think the win pool has gone up in the handle. i wonder if any other track could discover this including the Mountain?

Hi Phil. I know which guys regularly bear influence on our win pool. Two or three have game. The rest overrate themselves. None use computers.

[JustRalph]

Originally Posted by formula_2002

I missed class that day. What is CAW?

Computer Assisted Wagering

this might be a good read for ya.......and others

https://pastthewire.com/no-caws-or-c...-as-it-sounds/

[Dave Schwartz]

Investigate what?

That the money wagered by everyone who pulls the trigger as the horses are entering the gate doesn't show up on the tote board until the gate is open?

BTW, that includes just about everyone on this board I would imagine.

A tote watcher guy told me recently that almost 60% of the WPS pools at most tracks shows up after the horses are out of the gate.

It's really not about the amount of the handle.

It's about the fact that there are a handful of really large bettors (i.e. whales) who use similar approaches to make their bets. When those guys are in agreement, you get a precipitous drop.

[formula_2002]

Originally Posted by JustRalph

Computer Assisted Wagering

this might be a good read for ya.......and others

https://pastthewire.com/no-caws-or-c...-as-it-sounds/

Thanks, that's what I have doing for over 35 years , though it's CAA, computer assisted analysis. I have thousands of wps and exacta tote board data files. The link is interesting. Thanks again

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by the little guy

I’m puzzled how people are, apparently, just learning something that has been discussed multiple times on this board over the last 14 months. I always thought paying attention was an important part of being a horseplayer.

havent really been a horse player, not sure what everyone else's excuse.

I had not watched your show in over 3 years till last weekend. You guys do a first class production.

[PalaceOfFortLarned]

Originally Posted by the little guy

I’m puzzled how people are, apparently, just learning something that has been discussed multiple times on this board over the last 14 months. I always thought paying attention was an important part of being a horseplayer.

Line movement while horses are in race has been happening for years. Hell, for well over a decade, maybe even 2.

It is simply a part of the game that everyone has to consider when making any wager. Checking Will Pays and Doubles always helps, but isn't always foolproof by any stretch either.

Players must have odds and proper value of horses and what "they'll actually go off at" in their mind at all times when making W/P/S bets (any bet actually). Even with these tactics in mind there are going to be horses bet down outside of your expectations. One also needs to recognize the horses that went up in price and won as well (we never see those posts however).