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06-09-2021, 01:31 PM
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#1
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Money back
For some time some ADWs have advertised a promotion on certain races where they return your win bet if the horse places or shows. The bets are limited to modest amounts and sometimes are withdrawn if the field is too small. For example Expressbet had this promotion on all races at Belmont both Friday and Saturday (22 races).
At first blush I thought of betting the favorite, expecting to win 1/3, lose 1/3, and push 1/3. And indeed this was a profitable strategy for those two days.
Does anyone have a better betting idea?
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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06-09-2021, 10:55 PM
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#2
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
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Favs are good, so long as they aren't underlays. With the money-back feature, you can take around 'fair-odds' and you don't need a big overlay to pull the trigger for that $10 or whatever.
If you have an actual overlay, those are the best that I know of.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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06-10-2021, 12:40 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,735
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on Belmont Stake Day, I had 4 adw's that had the $10 money-back special.. i wound up betting 8 races with the deal with all 4. I had 3 winners, 4 others in the money, and one out! I saved $160.
a few years ago I was a VIP player with TVG. on the big days they gave me a $50 bet on the money-back along with the regular rebate. I don't know if they still do it because they got rid of me. I tried calling them and asked to speak to my key account rep, but they never called me back.
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06-10-2021, 10:31 AM
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#4
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
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win-Show in some cases?
What about betting to show in addition to betting the Money-Back-Win?
If you were right, and the horse contends, you get the show money, but if it finishes 2nd or 3rd, you don't lose $10 on the Win wager, that would normally deduct from a win-show wager. If it wins, you basically get a bonus.
Of course, if the horse fails, you lose the $10 extra bucks.
There are other, more complicated leverage plays, like keying exactly 3rd and 2nd in wagers(trifectas?), but you trade bigger payouts for coverage.
oh just one more thing = Some races will be negative expectation, even with the bonus (depending on the race itself, and your understanding).
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Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Last edited by Robert Fischer; 06-10-2021 at 10:37 AM.
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06-10-2021, 11:46 AM
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#5
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Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: Fergus,ON
Posts: 3,710
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$5 minimum to bet to Win (not the old $2)
If your horse finishes 1st you get a 3% cash bonus so if the horse you like wins at 20-1 or $42 you get $105 plus 3% of $42 so $12.60
You will get $117.60 in total
If your horse finishes 2nd or 3rd well you will get your money back and no bonus
Sounds kinda weird but it could attract some people
__________________
Handicapping the world year round'
-Conley
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06-12-2021, 05:14 PM
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#6
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
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I guess Aner went on vacation or hit a dry spell?
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
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07-06-2021, 10:58 AM
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#7
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Queens, NY
Posts: 20,604
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
I don't know if they still do it because they got rid of me. I tried calling them and asked to speak to my key account rep, but they never called me back.
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Why did they get rid of you?
I have a quite a few accounts. Sometimes if you abuse the money back bets by just betting those and giving them no other action they will stop giving you the bonuses because they are trying to attract other action also. But if you are making plenty of bets including money backs they have no reason to stop.
I make a point of spreading my action around so I don't get cut off.
__________________
"Unlearning is the highest form of learning"
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07-06-2021, 11:55 AM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,735
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Quote:
Originally Posted by classhandicapper
Why did they get rid of you?
I have a quite a few accounts. Sometimes if you abuse the money back bets by just betting those and giving them no other action they will stop giving you the bonuses because they are trying to attract other action also. But if you are making plenty of bets including money backs they have no reason to stop.
I make a point of spreading my action around so I don't get cut off.
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tVG was giving me a flat 7% for the rebate and i was playing things like NYRA pick 5's and other tracks promotional low takeout bets. TVG just didn't like that type of action.
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07-07-2021, 01:31 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: Beaverdam Virginia
Posts: 12,652
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lamboguy
tVG was giving me a flat 7% for the rebate and i was playing things like NYRA pick 5's and other tracks promotional low takeout bets. TVG just didn't like that type of action.
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I took a long sabbatical from gambling. When did TVG start giving 7% rebates? When I was using them it was pretty piddly. I thought 7% would be around what TVG got themselves.
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07-07-2021, 01:36 PM
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#10
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Registered User
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Boston+Ocala
Posts: 23,735
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Inner Dirt
I took a long sabbatical from gambling. When did TVG start giving 7% rebates? When I was using them it was pretty piddly. I thought 7% would be around what TVG got themselves.
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they have what they call "key account managers". if you play high enough with them, they will give you some type of a rebate.. you need to call them ask for a key account person.
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08-18-2021, 05:31 PM
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#11
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clean money
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
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That's been working pretty good for me.
Chalk (or in the case of disliked chalk, the 'top contender)
you want him to be a solid 'show' bet.
(If he's an odds-on and paying $2.20 or less, skip the show bet.)
Bet the $10 MONEY BACK SPECIAL on that guy
Bet $50 or so to show (gut check, if you wouldn't feel confident then you have to reassess your whole pick and maybe sit this one out, champ)
Now if you see an interesting OTHER HORSE & want to play around and you see a mid-priced or long-shot with something attractive = you can also bet $1 or $2 to Win on that guy, and a 1-number Daily-Double or whatever 'lean' ticket suits you. (total $2-$5 or so)
Basically you are making a show bet, with a *bonus*... that's how I have to determine whether it's a value.
Comes in 2nd or 3rd, you just win the show bet. Comes in first, you get a nice boost. Worse than 3rd- you lose ~$70 bucks
The dutch is a small hedge, and you get a shot on that lone-speed long shot or that super-owner claimed horse that may improve 10pts...
Not some genius stuff, but it's a solid approach given you would already be willing to bet $50 bucks on the horse to show.
Conservative-leaning? bet a fraction $2Win $10Show no hedge or $1Win on the 'dutch' alternative
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Last edited by Robert Fischer; 08-18-2021 at 05:33 PM.
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08-24-2021, 11:36 PM
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#12
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,629
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I got my $10 back today from Xpressbet for Satruday's Del Mar card.
I had 3 winners, a second and 3 4ths. I might have to consider the show backup option.
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09-05-2021, 10:52 AM
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#13
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Registered User
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 7,678
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Xpessbet is offering money back on all races at Kentucky Downs from 9/5/21 to 9/12/21 if your horse places or shows. Win bets only up to $10.
__________________
“Man is a slow, sloppy, and brilliant thinker; computers are fast, accurate, and stupid.”
― John Pfeiffer
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