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07-12-2018, 04:00 PM
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#181
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2001
Posts: 46,883
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Quote:
Originally Posted by newtothegame
Of course this isn't going to fit some posters here agenda.....
I mean after all, Trump is just rolling over for N Korea...…
But wait... The US just did what? Based on what??
"The United States is asking the U.N. Security Council to order an immediate halt to all deliveries of refined oil products to North Korea after finding that Pyongyang had violated restrictions on those imports"
"The U.S. move at the United Nations came just days after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo traveled to Pyongyang to press for concrete steps by Kim Jong Un's regime to scrap its nuclear program."
Wait now, Im confused.....If Russia is one of the sellers of this petroleum to the North, and Trmup is supposedly colluding with Russia, why would Trump try to shut this down??? 
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...cid=spartanntp |
Putin and Trump have colluded to confuse the Left more than they normally are.
__________________
Consistent profits can only be made on the basis of analysis that is far from obvious to the majority. - anonymous guru
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08-08-2018, 02:17 PM
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#182
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 14,036
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Hard to trust anything from VOX but if this is true its actually a much better sign out of the Administration.
Pompeo is supposed to head back to North Korea shortly. I expect further breakdown but perhaps we can get away from this "complete denuclearization" talk which I think is pretty much a non-starter for all sides.
If there is a breakthrough I suspect it will be due to some capitulation by the United States but if it brings NK into the NPT and causes disarmament (not complete) that could be a win.
Exclusive: Pompeo told North Korea to cut its nuclear arsenal by 60 to 70 percent
The main problem is deterrence works best when there is transparency. We could be vastly overestimating the strength of the North Korean arsenal... and they would be perfectly content having that remain the case. They still hold the cards.
Last edited by elysiantraveller; 08-08-2018 at 02:22 PM.
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08-08-2018, 02:25 PM
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#183
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 10,159
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elysiantraveller
Hard to trust anything from VOX but if this is true its actually a much better sign out of the Administration.
Pompeo is supposed to head back to North Korea shortly. I expect further breakdown but perhaps we can get away from this "complete denuclearization" talk which I think is pretty much a non-starter for all sides.
If there is a breakthrough I suspect it will be due to some capitulation by the United States but if it brings NK into the NPT and causes disarmament (not complete) that could be a win.
Exclusive: Pompeo told North Korea to cut its nuclear arsenal by 60 to 70 percent
The main problem is deterrence works best when there is transparency. We could be vastly overestimating the strength of the North Korean arsenal... and they would be perfectly content having that remain the case. They still hold the cards. |
What cards do they hold? They are literally starving to death. They have some nukes, but they aren't a strong enough threat in my eyes to say that they, "hold cards". The door is open to prosperity, and the only question is will they choose it. I agree that complete denuclearization is a pipe dream without some serious incentives, so 60-70% with limits on ICBM testing/production would be a good goal.
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08-08-2018, 02:28 PM
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#184
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 14,036
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tucker6
What cards do they hold? They are literally starving to death. They have some nukes, but they aren't a strong enough threat in my eyes to say that they, "hold cards". The door is open to prosperity, and the only question is will they choose it. I agree that complete denuclearization is a pipe dream without some serious incentives, so 60-70% with limits on ICBM testing/production would be a good goal.
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They've been starving to death for 20 years.
That's the normal for them.
Regime leadership knows they won't collapse... China wouldn't allow it.
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08-08-2018, 02:33 PM
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#185
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 10,159
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elysiantraveller
They've been starving to death for 20 years.
That's the normal for them.
Regime leadership knows they won't collapse... China wouldn't allow it.
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If we promised China that we'd lower our troop levels in South Korea and our overall presence in the China Sea if they would get rid of Kim and denuclearize NK, what do you believe they would do?
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08-08-2018, 02:36 PM
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#186
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 14,036
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tucker6
If we promised China that we'd lower our troop levels in South Korea and our overall presence in the China Sea if they would get rid of Kim and denuclearize NK, what do you believe they would do?
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We aren't willing to give that though...
At least I'm certainly not.
Plus, China is afraid a opened up North Korea swings to the west and not the east...
What you're proposing I think is a non-starter for most parties as well.
Last edited by elysiantraveller; 08-08-2018 at 02:37 PM.
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08-08-2018, 02:40 PM
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#187
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 10,159
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elysiantraveller
We aren't willing to give that though...
At least I'm certainly not.
Plus, China is afraid a opened up North Korea swings to the west and not the east...
What you're proposing I think is a non-starter for most parties as well.
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I agree, but what is appetizing enough to get China's agreement? Who really cares about what Kim wants. If China wants him dead tomorrow, he dies tomorrow. So what does China want, because that's who is running the show from the other side.
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08-08-2018, 02:55 PM
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#188
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 14,036
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tucker6
I agree, but what is appetizing enough to get China's agreement? Who really cares about what Kim wants. If China wants him dead tomorrow, he dies tomorrow. So what does China want, because that's who is running the show from the other side.
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<Shrug>
Its hard to know.
The first step at least as far as we are concerned is North Korean transparency. A roadblock to transparency though would be if we are vastly overestimating their capabilities which is a complete possibility.
China on the other hand is much more interested in flexing its muscle in the region. China is relatively uninterested in nuclear arms races. They have what they feel is a credible deterrent against the west and are pretty content in that arena.
As I've said before... the status quo is not nearly as bad people think it is...
Ultimately just preventing an arms race in the region is ideal. Let North Korea keep their 25-50 missiles/warheads... as long as we can verify something like 50% of them at any given time... whatever.
Then let them Kim out in the world a bit...
When I said North Korea holds all the cards what I'm really saying is that they've already won. At least for all intents and purposes. They have at this point a deterrent we have to acknowledge and respect.
Last edited by elysiantraveller; 08-08-2018 at 02:57 PM.
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08-08-2018, 02:57 PM
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#189
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Registered User
Join Date: Jun 2008
Posts: 10,159
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Quote:
Originally Posted by elysiantraveller
The first step at least as far as we are concerned is North Korean transparency. A roadblock to transparency though would be if we are vastly overestimating their capabilities which is a complete possibility.
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I think you meant underestimating.
China keeps Kim around. Why? The answer there goes a long way toward understanding the dynamic in play when discussing denuclearizing the peninsula. Of course they are afraid that a freer north leans west (how can it not), but I have a hunch that isn't everything.
Last edited by tucker6; 08-08-2018 at 02:59 PM.
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08-08-2018, 03:11 PM
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#190
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PA Steward
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Del Boca Vista
Posts: 88,497
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tucker6
I think you meant underestimating.
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I think he meant overestimating...they definitely don't want transparency if in fact they are much weaker than they project and we assume.
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08-08-2018, 03:48 PM
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#191
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 14,036
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Quote:
Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage
I think he meant overestimating...they definitely don't want transparency if in fact they are much weaker than they project and we assume.
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Yup.
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08-24-2018, 02:19 PM
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#192
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 14,036
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In case you were wondering this isn't really how you negotiate...
If the Chinese and North Koreans weren't already aware of what leverage they had on Trump they certainly do now...
In other news my Dog wagged his tail.
Last edited by elysiantraveller; 08-24-2018 at 02:20 PM.
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08-24-2018, 04:14 PM
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#193
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,787
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Quote:
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In other news my Dog wagged his tail.
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Hear that hcap.......time for a tirade!
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
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08-24-2018, 04:36 PM
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#194
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2004
Posts: 14,036
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tom
Hear that hcap.......time for a tirade!
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There is Trump the man under investigation...
Then there is Trump the deal-maker-in-chief who actually sucks at negotiating...
This post has nothing to do with the former and everything to do with the latter.
Its more of a "hey! psst... he also sucks at this..."
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08-24-2018, 04:54 PM
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#195
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The Voice of Reason!
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,787
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Yes, he sucks so bad....image how many billions he would he would have if he knew what he was doing.
You know, come to thing of it, I have ever seen you and hcap together. Like Clark Kent.
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