Pegasus Cup

[classhandicapper]

Here's my theory for today.

Smith sends Collected just enough to make sure Gun Runner is hung out 3 wide first turn. He may even take him 4-5 wide so Geroux has to use Gun Runner harder if he wants to get a good spot stalking. That still allows Smith to get good position and also allows West Coast to tuck in, get good position, and possibly even get first run at Sharp Azteca instead of having to close down Gun Runner and Collected like he had to in the Classic.

[bpiets]

LAST YEARS RACE HAD A FEW THAT HAD TROUBLED RACES...SO THIS YEAR GUNRUNNER WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO WIN...LOL...EVEN THE OTHER GUN..... >>< >>>>CAN WIN THIS...( fill in the other letters...lol..)...but it looks like a 5-2-10-6 race.....and dettori is in the race with a shipper.....must be ready...

[letswastemoney]

I'm not sold Sharp Azteca will burn through crazy 22/45 fractions.

I'm seeing more along the lines of 23/46, leaving him enough in the tank to win (if going this long really doesn't bother him).

[jay68802]

Gunrunner is by far the best horse in the field. The wide trip will be overcome by the fact that he is just that much better than the rest of the field. Sharp Azteca and Collected can do anything they want to try and make it difficult for him, but in the end it will not matter.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Here's my theory for today.

Smith sends Collected just enough to make sure Gun Runner is hung out 3 wide first turn. He may even take him 4-5 wide so Geroux has to use Gun Runner harder if he wants to get a good spot stalking. That still allows Smith to get good position and also allows West Coast to tuck in, get good position, and possibly even get first run at Sharp Azteca instead of having to close down Gun Runner and Collected like he had to in the Classic.

I agree with you.

Collected does seem like he'll be in a position that Mike Smith can employ some tactics. I don't expect a sacrifice, but a lane wider, and/or denying a lane to Gun Runner is very possible.

Toast of New York is an unknown, and never as quick as Gun Runner, but there is a slim chance that he will break running. The goal is to emulate his 2014 Classic where he was forwardly placed.

Gun Runner is more of a leader/presser at this point, so I expect him to be near the front. The first turn comes up quick, but not impossibly so. I'd guess that Irad breaks on top with Sharp Azteca and then relaxes into the 1st turn saving ground on the lead, rather than opening up on the lead. Lot's of 'ifs' and 'guesses', but Gun Runner could in fact break on a course to be just outside of Sharp Azteca, with Mike Smith having an option of urging to split the two in order to keep Gun runner a path wider. Race riding is a possibility taking an extra path wider.

[PhantomOnTour]

Isn't this race setting up perfectly for Gunnevera to get a major share on his favorite track?

[Thomas Roulston]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Isn't this race setting up perfectly for Gunnevera to get a major share on his favorite track?

Yes, a major share. Just not the winner's share.

[cj]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Isn't this race setting up perfectly for Gunnevera to get a major share on his favorite track?

Didn't the Classic too?

[PhantomOnTour]

I don't expect Gunnevera to win, but in the search for value, he's the one. Unless West Coast has improved. If Azteca and Collected go, as expected, he should pick up a lot of them. I'll likely key him 2nd and 3rd in tris.
Don't overlook the home track angle

[linrom1]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

I don't expect Gunnevera to win, but in the search for value, he's the one. Unless West Coast has improved. If Azteca and Collected go, as expected, he should pick up a lot of them. I'll likely key him 2nd and 3rd in tris.
Don't overlook the home track angle

That's fine but Watchmaker is picking Gunnevera!

[Valuist]

Originally Posted by PhantomOnTour

Isn't this race setting up perfectly for Gunnevera to get a major share on his favorite track?

Absolutely. Still think he ran an absolutely giant race in the Travers, going wide on the turns on a day one wanted to be inside.

[storyline]

I was surprised by the number of favorable posts in support of Sharp Azteca to win this race.

If he tries to wire the field (which is his best chance imo) I think he'll tire badly turning for home and finish in the bottom half of the field. If he rates Gun Runner, West Coast & Collected and others will outfinish him.

Under what circumstance would Sharp Azteca be a play? I'd need at a minimum 15-1 and believe that he'd NOT face any pace pressure until the 2nd call. Neither of those two things are likely.

For me I think there are 5 horses who have a shot to win based on the possible
race shape and class of those running.

Most likely - Gun Runner (offers little value as a win bet)
Serious Players - West Coast & Collected (should be well placed early)
Longshot if race falls apart at huge odds - War Story
The horse I played in 2014 BC Classic at huge odds - Toast of New York

I will include Gunnevera or Stellar Wind to finish 4th rounding out the super.

[Mc990]

Originally Posted by storyline

I was surprised by the number of favorable posts in support of Sharp Azteca to win this race.

If he tries to wire the field (which is his best chance imo) I think he'll tire badly turning for home and finish in the bottom half of the field. If he rates Gun Runner, West Coast & Collected and others will outfinish him.

Under what circumstance would Sharp Azteca be a play? I'd need at a minimum 15-1 and believe that he'd NOT face any pace pressure until the 2nd call. Neither of those two things are likely.

For me I think there are 5 horses who have a shot to win based on the possible
race shape and class of those running.

Most likely - Gun Runner (offers little value as a win bet)
Serious Players - West Coast & Collected (should be well placed early)
Longshot if race falls apart at huge odds - War Story
The horse I played in 2014 BC Classic at huge odds - Toast of New York

I will include Gunnevera or Stellar Wind to finish 4th rounding out the super.

Sharp Azteca has 2 Ragozin and 3 Thorograph figs that lay over this field (one of them around two turns), plus a few other races that would make him very tough. I think we should stop pretending he's anything other than a serious racehorse. Heck he almost defied the dead rail on BC day to beat battle of midway.

So we have the fastest horse who figures to make the lead/save ground and he's not going to be the favorite. Maybe he fades but I'll take my chances....

Gun Runner figures to be a huge underlay. Maybe he doesn't get bet from the 10 hole but I'm guessing he'll be no more than even money. He's harpooned without a significant figure edge.... no thanks, last time was the time to have him IMO.

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by cj

Didn't the Classic too?

that was my issue, he should have been second in that race given the setup.

[Robert Fischer]

Originally Posted by Mc990

Sharp Azteca has 2 Ragozin and 3 Thorograph figs that lay over this field (one of them around two turns), plus a few other races that would make him very tough. I think we should stop pretending he's anything other than a serious racehorse. Heck he almost defied the dead rail on BC day to beat battle of midway.

So we have the fastest horse who figures to make the lead/save ground and he's not going to be the favorite. Maybe he fades but I'll take my chances....

Gun Runner figures to be a huge underlay. Maybe he doesn't get bet from the 10 hole but I'm guessing he'll be no more than even money. He's harpooned without a significant figure edge.... no thanks, last time was the time to have him IMO.

Sharp Azteca is pretty much guaranteed an 'opportunity' to win, which is more than you can say for everyone.

Some believe that Navarro and Baffert didn't fire their best shots on Breeder's Cup day, so if that has any truth, could see some improvement from horses like Sharp Azteca and Collected in the stretch.

It's going to take a big performance or some unlucky trips from others to wire this field. He's got a puncher's chance. Odds figure to be fair.