2019-2020 HONG KONG

[Nitro]

UPDATE: R#5- 1400M C4 (7F)T…….3-2-5 W/ 4-7-8 ……3:05 AM

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

UPDATE: R#5- 1400M C4 (7F)T…….3-2-5 W/ 4-7-8 ……3:05 AM

5-8-2-3– Dutch Win 46% Profit Margin - Passed / $20.20 Quinella & $107.40 Triple Bx ($430.60 Quartet Bx) – All of that one!

[Nitro]

UPDATE: R#6- 1800M C3 (9F)T…..…4-11-10 W/ 1-8-7 …3:40 AM

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by Nitro

UPDATE: R#6- 1800M C3 (9F)T…..…4-11-10 W/ 1-8-7 …3:40 AM

8-3-11-1– Dutch Loss 49% Profit Margin - Passed / Very late money on the Winner, but no action on the big LS Placer #3

[Nitro]

R#7– 1400M G3 (7F)T……....1-7-2 W/ 4-6 …………..4:10 AM

1-5-7-2– Dutch Win 1% Profit Margin - Passed / Not much action on the LS Placer #5

Beauty Generation wins its 10th straight race covering the 7F in 1:20.05

[Nitro]

R#8- 1200M C3 (6F)T……..… 3-2-4 W/ 7-6-9…........4:45 AM

2-12-6-11– Dutch Win 54% Profit Margin /

R#9- 1400M C3 (7F)T……..… 1-4-7 W/ 14-10-3…….5:20 AM

4-3-5-6– Dutch Win 103% Profit Margin / $14.70 Quinella

**Dutch Win Quota reached; hitting 4 of 4 playable races

R#10- 1200M C2 (6F)T…...… 4-7-9 W/ 14-5-10…….5:55 AM

7-1-4-10– Dutch Win -2% Profit Margin - Passed /


It was another fun and very profitable card. The Dutch Win bets produced a healthy O.A. Profit margin of 85% and was hit from winning all 4 of 4 playable races. Also hit were a number of Quinellas and Triples.
.
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[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: September 25, 2019
Track: Happy Valley
Bias: None

Horses to watch for list:
Race 49
Tianchi Monster (89) Had been away since a poor effort in July against Class 1 runners (obviously too much for him right now), now back at his proper level and So was able to commandeer*the services of leading rider Zac Purton for the 9 furlongs run at the downtown track. He went off as the 5-2 second betting choice to Green Luck in a small field of 7, he broke well and settled in mid-pack while racing on the rail. Just before entering the stretch he moved to the two path and went to the front to challenge the front runner Ruthven, looked like a winner with 250 to go but the vacation time caught up with him at the 150 mark and couldn't hold off the Happy Valley lover Helene Charisma, Zac put the stick away for the last 50 metres. Should improve off that effort what with it not being too taxing on him, just being a little short, may show up at Sha Tin next time out.

Race 57
Le Terroir (72) Just missed in his last on the 26th of June against Class 4 runners while picking up two rating points which put him into Class 3 for his second time in his career. He drew the rail against a field with a real nice runner Reliable Team, he broke on top and was pushed to the front before the short turn 200 metres from the gate. When he straightened up on the backside he was engaged by the favourite, then halfway down the backside Purton took Relaible Team off the lead allowing Le Terroir and easy lead and it pretty much sealed his fate right then and there. In the turn Zac asked Reliable Team for a run but Le Terroir had scooted away from him, and after a few reminders by Moreira he ran away from this field for a very easy win. Picks up 10 more points which will put his carrying weight up to 127 which shouldn't be a problem.

Horse to avoid next time out:
None

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Racing Recap
Date: October 1, 2019
Track: Sha Tin
Bias: None

Horses to watch for list:
Race 57
Eight Trigrams (52) Closed after breaking from the 10 post after being blocked going 6 furlongs at Sha Tin with the aid of a bias just before the break at 20-1, now Hall picks up Purton which is a sign that he believes he has this steed is in top form. The public agreed betting him down to the even money chalk in a very chaotic race with 5 first time starters. He broke well and Zac pushed him from the gate to the front end, after 200 metres he was placed on the back hind of a rank front running first time starter Good View Clarico. Early in the turn Good View was engaged by another first time starter Forever Sharp which allowed Eight Trigrams to settle in just behind the duel with clear sailing. At the 300 metre mark he took the lead but couldn't hold off the high weight E Star late who had an out since the summer break, Eight Trigrams should have enough bottom in him after this try to get to the wire in his next out.

Race 63
Splendour And Gold (74) Ran a tiring fifth in his first try of the season at Happy Valley, now he was back at his preferable track Sha Tin and Yip was able to get the 'Magic' man on for the ride. He broke well and was grabbed soon afterwards and taken to the rear of the field, midway down the backside Joao moved him a little closer to mid-pack two wide heading into the turn. At the top of the stretch he found him in tight when second place finisher Sichuan Dar moved into his path, then he was totally taken out of the race with 250 to go when Sichuan came in on him while a tiring Party Together was forced out when the eventual winner Happy Sebring was forcing his way in a very tight hole. While all this was going on, Marzouq was also tiring badly and was backing up into Splendour's path and at that moment his race was over. Moreira hand rode him to the wire afterwards. Not a big fan of his trainer, at this moment he's only 1 for 50 but this one runs big almost every time even with that handicap on his back.

Horse to avoid next time out:
None

[Nitro]

Originally Posted by woodbinepmi

Hong Kong Jockey Club at Sha Tin. October 1, 2019… 7thrace meeting of the 2019-2020 year.

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 2 Super Winner (8-5) Is entered in a very chaotic race what with 4 first time starters and besides himself two others who only have one race under their belts. He went off as a triple digit price in his debut and raced very greenly also comes from a barn that 1 for 43 for the meet so far, I will try and knock him at 8-5.

Hey Woody I just wanted to thank you for alerting me about the Vulnerable Favorite in the 2nd race on Tues.
Your write up was spot on and allowed me to make a nice Dutch score.

[woodbinepmi]

Glad I could help. He threw in the towel without much effort, looks to be a very common runner.

[woodbinepmi]

Hong Kong Jockey Club at Sha Tin. October 6, 2019… 8th race meeting of the 2019-2020 year.
Weather report: 87 Degrees 80% of rain Wind: ENE 15 to 25 mph.

Post time: 1am ET, 10pm PT. Rail: Course “B+2” AWT, track listed: Good

Past Performance links:
https://racing.hkjc.com/racing/content/PDF/RaceCard/20191006_starter_all.pdf
http://www.hkjc.com/english/formguide/1.html SpeedPRO
http://www.drf.com/hk
http://www.scmp.com/sport/racing/racecard
http://www.hkracing.com/interactive/ Pace Ratings

Live Video Feed:
http://thoroughbrednews.com.au/news/story/live-streaming-of-hong-kongs-meetings-116841?section=livestreaming

Vulnerable favourite on the card:
Race 1 Full Of Chances (3-1) Comes from a very cold barn what with 1 win out of 37 tries and a rider who also has only one win on the meet. Even with the drop in class his performance ratings are not to par level and there are few in here that have which is very unusual for Class 5 races.

Horses coming out of key races running tonight (races where multiple winners have come back next time out and won):
Race *739 (2nd & 6th, Second: 4th & 12th)
Race 7 Clear Choice (9-2)

Race *759 (5th & 11th, Second: 7th)
Race 10 Uncle Steve (8-1)

In the event of rain these horses have shown an appreciation for soft footing. (Good to Yielding or Yielding):
Race 6 Good Fit (16-1)

Trainer/Jockey/Horse winning combos running tonight:
Race 2 Gorgeous Again (7-1)
Race 3 Dating (9-1)
Race 8 Band Of Brothers (6-5)

Horses for courses running tonight:
Race 8 Band Of Brothers (6-5)

Distance specialists running tonight:
None

Class specialists running tonight:
None

Last race watch list horses running tonight:
Race 7 Perfect Play (13-1) In his last race just before the summer break he finished a nice second to Flying Quest after travelling wide without any cover but did come out of that race on the Vet's list with a sore back. Fownes had figured he had the problem solved by picking up Moreira for the run around the block and the public responded with them betting him down to the 2-1 chalk. He broke a step slow but that is nothing new with him, he usually runs from off the pace, heading into the first turn he found himself mid-pack racing two wide all the while the light weight eventual winner Last Kingdom was on the front end setting a very slow pace for the rest to ran at. At the 750 metre mark Joao tried to get him into the race but was forced out to the three path entering the turn and with a very strong rail bias that night he was now treading water, entering the stretch he drifted out to the five path even further away from the land of gold and honey and with the early pace situation he couldn't make up the ground in the stretch and was hand ridden for the final 100 metres.

Race 10 Fast Most Furious (6-1) Was all out in his last to get up after breaking from the 13 post going 7 furlongs all the while getting the aid of a closing track that day. Was a little washed up heading into the gate here, he settled in mid-pack two wide on the backside, moved out to the five path entering the stretch and dug down trying to catch the light weight winner Gold Chest who had a perfect trip in the early going. He picked up 2 handicapping points which will allow him one more run at Class 2.

Race 10 Hezthewonforus (3-1) After finding that he has a very strong appreciation for the wet going two and three races back, he now found himself in a VERY tough Class 2 race that was the finale of the year (every owner in HK wants to win the finale). With it being a tough race for the class he was unfortunate to draw the 12 gate and being a front runner that was catching a track that was favouring closers he was in for a tough going before they even reached the gate. He broke well and Moreira tried to get him over as quickly as possible without using too much of him up, Cruising took the early lead, but just before the turn Moreira had to get into Hezthewonforus to get up front or he would have been stuck four wide and did into a fast pace too. After running a full second faster than par he took a two length lead early in the stretch but with 200 to go, the pace and the track finally took its toll and he galloped out to finish 5th beaten 2 lengths to the 12-1 winner Fast Most Furious for David Hall. The tell on this one next time out is, if Moreira stays on he's ready, Joao will not be required to ride for Size next year so it will be a judgement call.

Race 10 Hello Beauty (14-1) He was put on my watch list back on July 7th finishing fifth after travelling wide and came back to run second to Aerohappiness as the beaten favourite, now after the summer break Moore was forced to jump him up in class after he picked up two handicap points for that effort. In his first go against Class 2 runners (and a good field too) he was bet down as the 3-1 second betting choice behind Fat Turtle. He broke well but soon afterwards he was bumped on his left side by the favourite then bounced back into California Whip who had broke from just underneath him causing him to lose his place in line and race a little further back than where he wanted to be. Now racing mid-pack two wide just before the turn he became a little rank when Shinn on Styling City bumped Fat Turtle over into his path, this continued for at least 100 metres. After settling down he entered the stretch in the 5 path, he started to tire at the 200 metre mark drifting in and out slightly and was wrapped up soon after that by Schofield.

Race 10 Uncle Steve (8-1) After finally finding the winner's circle in his last going a mile at Sha Tin, he was bet down as the heavy even money favourite in a field of 14 for John Moore and leading rider Zach Purton. At the break he was slightly bothered by Marqula when he broke on his hind legs and forcing Uncle Steve to avoid him which now put him behind Beauty Day. Half-way down the backside he started fighting Zac for the bit and began to climb with his mouth open, in the turn he raced in the third flight three wide while chasing the longshot winner Earth Trilogy who had the easiest of trips you could ask for. At the top he moved out to the 5 path but was not able to ever head the front runner losing top prize by a half-length.

Past watch list runners running tonight:
None

Key Plays:
Race 8 Follow Me (5-1)
Race 9 California Guncho (3-1)

Longshot:
Race 7 Perfect Play (13-1)

[Nitro]

Good morning to everyone interested in the best racing product on the planet!
Let’s hope that the political unrest doesn’t disrupt today’s racing.
I’m posting my pre-race selections for another very competitive card that looks to offer some decent value. There are 10 races at Sha Tin with 7 races on Turf and 3 on Dirt:
(Class top to bottom) - (1)-Class-2, (3)-Class-3, (4)-Class-4, (2)-Class-5

Post Time Race #1 – 1:00 AM SUN EST

I’ve taken a look at the M/L’s in combination with the early odds and used a unique static tote analysis to come up with the preliminary picks for each race. Later, the Live tote analysis will certainly shed more light on these and any others I might have missed.

The latest tote action (by 4 mins. to post) may reveal some things that cause final substitutions among the Top 3 picks from the Bottom 3 picks. However, the overall picks generally look fairly decent for some nice Quinella & Tri scores. Quite a few of the races this morning look wide open!

BTW the Top 3 picks have continued to produce some nice Dutch Win returns when the combined odds produce Profit Margins higher ^ than 50%. When I can’t make a Dutch Win bet I’ll generally pay more attention to the Quinellas and perhaps even a Triple play if the combined values add up to decent return.

Good Luck if you’re playing!

R#1- 1800M C5 (9F)T……...3-1-4 W/ 5-6-8……...….1:00 AM

R#2- 1800M C4 (9F)T……...2-1-9 W/ 6-3-10….…....1:30 AM

R#3– 1650M C5 (8.25F)D….7-10-2 W/ 3-13-8 .….2:00 AM

R#4- 1200M C4 (6F)T…….….4-9-5 W/ 7-14-3 .......2:30 AM

R#5- 1400M C4 (7F)T…….….9-7-3 W/ 6-8-1 ……..…3:00 AM

R#6- 1650M C4 (8.25F)D.…10-5-11 W/ 4-1-12 ….3:35 AM

R#7– 1650M D3 (8.25F)D….4-11-10 W/ 3-12-1 ….4:05 AM

R#8- 1400M C3 (7F)T……..… 3-5-1 W/ 4-11-9….....4:35 AM

R#9- 1200M C3 (6F)T……..… 4-7-1 W/ 2-11-12…….5:10 AM

R#10- 1400M C2 (7F)T…...… 5-7-3 W/ 2-10-14…….5:45 AM
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[Nitro]

R#1- 1800M C5 (9F)T……...3-1-4 W/ 5-6-8…….….1:00 AM

2-7-4-6– Dutch Loss 31% Profit Margin- Passed / No action on the LS Winner or Placer

[Nitro]

R#2- 1800M C4 (9F)T……...2-1-9 W/ 6-3-10….…..1:30 AM

2-4-9-6– Dutch Win 14% Profit Margin - Passed / Placer took a lot of late action - too late to post an update

[Nitro]

UPDATE: R#3– 1650M C5 (8.25F)D….7-10-2 W/ 8-14-5 .….2:00 AM