Male Sprinter Division

[classhandicapper]

I've done a lot of work with Beyer PARs over the years, but it would be a huge task to do Stakes PARs by Grade for every year from 1993 forward. I have some already but not all.

This is the average of the top 10 Beyers each year for Males, in Graded Stakes, on Dirt broken down by ALL, Sprint, and Route.

The basic pattern is that sprints tend to be a little slow than routes. That was expected given the best versatile horses tend to be routers because there is more prestige and money on the line in routes.

More interesting is that there was sudden noticeable drop in the averages of both starting in 2008 (between 5-6 Beyer points overall). That's the year of Big Brown and the steroid controversy where some trainers started to back off their use of steroids. I believe 2009 was when official rules were put in place.

It appears the non steroid era may have had a slightly greater impact on sprinters than routers (maybe another ~ 2 points).

There's been a further drop in the last 2 years, but I think it's premature to draw any conclusions because last year was a pandemic year that probably impacted the results and the best figures of 2021 are probably yet to come this year as we approach and run the Breeder's Cup races. If it holds though, maybe we'll need a Non Lasix Era.

In any event, I think there is some evidence that drug use (or lack thereof) may be a primary contributor to the decline of the very best Beyer figures, especially for sprinters.

(When I get more time I may look at Fillies and Mares and maybe then do turf, but turf may not be comparable because Beyer modified his turf figures substantially along the way)

[rastajenk]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

More interesting is that there was sudden noticeable drop in the averages of both starting in 2008 (between 5-6 Beyer points overall). That's the year of Big Brown and the steroid controversy where some trainers started to back off their use of steroids. I believe 2009 was when official rules were put in place.

That's always been my point of reference whenever this kind of discussion is raised. I don't have a database, but if I had the time and desire to pick through the last 12 years for anecdotal evidence, I'm sure I could make a convincing case that that was when the decline began.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by rastajenk

That's always been my point of reference whenever this kind of discussion is raised. I don't have a database, but if I had the time and desire to pick through the last 12 years for anecdotal evidence, I'm sure I could make a convincing case that that was when the decline began.

I'm glad I took the time to look at some data closer.

One of my pet peeves is the historical record being distorted by figure drift; changing/improved methodologies of the figure makers over time; drug use etc..

When people compare great horses now with great horse of the past and use figures literally I just shake my head because you might think some top horses were God-like or Grade 3 slugs depending on whose figures you are using.

At least now I feel like I have a better understanding of what's been happening on the Beyer front and can adjust my own thinking to better reflect how good various horses were over and above just class/accomplishments.

[cj]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

There's been a further drop in the last 2 years, but I think it's premature to draw any conclusions because last year was a pandemic year that probably impacted the results and the best figures of 2021 are probably yet to come this year as we approach and run the Breeder's Cup races. If it holds though, maybe we'll need a Non Lasix Era.

Definitely would think lasix has to be at least part of that. We're running non-lasix stakes on cards where other races have horses on lasix. It is really hard to factor in race to race and day to day, but in a big sample the non-lasix races almost have to regress IMO.

[azeri98]

In my opinion the regression of tbred in terms of final times or beyers has everything to do with breeding and rampant drug use. I don't know how far back you have to go but there was a time when only the best horses became a stallion with a few exceptions. You now have racehorses who have won one or two big races and some that even haven't done that and then are injured and become stallions passing on their unsoundness to their progeny. Malibu Moon is just one example. With this going on for generations, racetracks have had to slow their tracks down to prevent injuries. Throw in the rampant drug use also diluting the breed. Studies have shown that lasix could promote bone loss and fracture. We know steroids have a lot of long term side effects in racehorses. I'm not surprised this happened.

[Mick]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Grade 1 Bing Crosby won by Dr Schivel

Our sprint division hasn’t been really good in quite awhile.

Three 3 year old horses would disagree:

Flightline
Life Is Good
Jackie's Warrior

I don't know their Beyer number but damn, they smoke.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Mick

Three 3 year old horses would disagree:

Flightline
Life Is Good
Jackie's Warrior

I don't know their Beyer number but damn, they smoke.

Baby Yoda
Beau Liam
Witsel
Olympiad

[Mick]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Baby Yoda
Beau Liam
Witsel
Olympiad

Would love to see this bunch together in one race but it will never happen. Why take on the best risking a loss when you can grab a good purse against easier? I'd say we have an excellent 3 year old sprint division. And with Wit and Jack Christopher and possibly Defend, Gunite, High Oak, Papa Cap and other 2 year olds we have a chance for more next year.


Flightline
Life Is Good
Jackie's Warrior
Baby Yoda
Beau Liam
Witsel
Drain the Clock

[classhandicapper]

I thought Jackie’s Warrior’s comeback was “meh”. He and Empire of Gold opened up and seemingly ran a fast pace (waiting on the pace figures), but JW was not being urged hard, the track was pretty kind to speed, Empire of Gold backed up but finished with a speed figure similar to his typical range, and the horses getting to JW late are not particularly high quality. Peak JW would have dusted that field.

[Tom]

If he was peak form, he wouldn't have been in that field.