Two year old races

[azeri98]

Originally Posted by Mick

I stunk it up today in the Saratoga Special. I totally dismissed the winner High Oak. He barely beat a horse first out, named Labarde, who ran twice since and ran up the track. I took the chalk thinking speed was ruling and he could break free on the turn. He had to work early to get a small lead and never could show the speed he had first out.

Back to reality.

He was a toss for me especially as the chalk. He won an off the turf race. Had an easy lead and only one start vs some horses who have run 2 or 3 races There was no way he was going to get that here against this group with the 2 horse being in there. The 2 ran a great race being on the lead and holding on for 2nd.

[Mick]

Originally Posted by azeri98

He was a toss for me especially as the chalk. He won an off the turf race. Had an easy lead and only one start vs some horses who have run 2 or 3 races There was no way he was going to get that here against this group with the 2 horse being in there. The 2 ran a great race being on the lead and holding on for 2nd.

I totally agree about Gunite. He was my third choice because of his improvement. Brigadier General stunk it up last week, or he would have been in my top two picks.

I think Nakatomi ran well too, His one hole pp didn't help him early (if you watch the head on view, you will lose him coming out of the chute and he had to correct for that. That and the fact that he returned from Europe and dusted off some rust from the trip made it a tad difficult yesterday.

I wish I knew that Doctor Jeff's first race was scheduled for turf. It's easier to win on dirt if you are running against turf horses.

[Mick]

Not a bad start with a 2 year old race.

R1.JPG

[Mick]

All good things come to an end, I swung big in race 2 with a live longshot Baj (32-1). He led to close to a mile but the race had another sixteenth to go and he finished a little tired in 4th place.

The other horses I liked ran 1-2, but I took a swing to win only looking for a big return. You never know when one of those will hit. (I had a 17-1 and 12-1 shot win this week).

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Mick

I stunk it up today in the Saratoga Special. I totally dismissed the winner High Oak. He barely beat a horse first out, named Labarde, who ran twice since and ran up the track.
Back to reality.

He looked a little better on Thorograph than on other sets of figures, but he wasn't easy to come up with unless you were smart enough to project significant improvement off his recent much better works 2nd time out for Mott.

I find these 2yo stakes races especially tough now that they are basically often glorified NW1 allowance races. You know that some of the horses are going to jump up either from development or because they'll get a pace more favorable to putting up a big number and you know some of the horses with big numbers are just cheap speed that will fold if they are challenged or outrun to the lead. But it's not so easy to know which is which. One of the best clues is usually the connections, but there's not much value there.

[azeri98]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

He looked a little better on Thorograph than on other sets of figures, but he wasn't easy to come up with unless you were smart enough to project significant improvement off his recent much better works 2nd time out for Mott.

I find these 2yo stakes races especially tough now that they are basically often glorified NW1 allowance races. You know that some of the horses are going to jump up either from development or because they'll get a pace more favorable to putting up a big number and you know some of the horses with big numbers are just cheap speed that will fold if they are challenged or outrun to the lead. But it's not so easy to know which is which. One of the best clues is usually the connections, but there's not much value there.

When Mott's horse wins first time out especially with 2 year olds you have to think it will run even better next time out. He rarely has them fully cranked going first time out.

[Mick]

Originally Posted by azeri98

When Mott's horse wins first time out especially with 2 year olds you have to think it will run even better next time out. He rarely has them fully cranked going first time out.

Yes, thanks to you and classhanidcapper, I am learning about trainers. Some have them ready to fire first out and others allow the horse to develop in a race or two. I heard Rusty Arnold is like that, allowing his 2 year olds to develop.

I think I've had more success in non-handicap races than the handicap ones.

I learned something yesterday that benefitted me today. Yesterday, a horse named Friend had four so so races at FanDuel (Fairmont Park). He surprised me when he ran second to the logical favorite and while I didn't bet, I wasn't going to bet him. In my notes, I said the horse had to be fittest of the bunch because of having four races and most others were FTS.

Today, I played two horses with good experience facing mostly FTS. Gromleys got Game paid $24 to win and Venice Beach paid $18 winning by a whisker over a FTS 3-2 shot.

[geroge.burns99]

Originally Posted by Mick

Yes, thanks to you and classhanidcapper, I am learning about trainers. Some have them ready to fire first out and others allow the horse to develop in a race or two. I heard Rusty Arnold is like that, allowing his 2 year olds to develop.

I think I've had more success in non-handicap races than the handicap ones.

I learned something yesterday that benefitted me today. Yesterday, a horse named Friend had four so so races at FanDuel (Fairmont Park). He surprised me when he ran second to the logical favorite and while I didn't bet, I wasn't going to bet him. In my notes, I said the horse had to be fittest of the bunch because of having four races and most others were FTS.

Today, I played two horses with good experience facing mostly FTS. Gromleys got Game paid $24 to win and Venice Beach paid $18 winning by a whisker over a FTS 3-2 shot.

Good job!!!

Develop some specific part of the game and you'll be OK...

By the way....Rusty Arnold is still around?

Mike

[Mick]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

Good job!!!

Develop some specific part of the game and you'll be OK...

By the way....Rusty Arnold is still around?

Mike

Race #3 today at Saratoga, Rusty has a (Nyquist) horse that I don't favor today, but could surprise or develop later named Lockstep. I will post my analysis

[Mick]

1. Pout - She's had three tries, the last two at $100K, seems to have been working on her speed not stamina. That said, you have to give this one credit for not taking the easy road and running against the best. She lost to On the ones and twos and Microbiome, who were the top two choices in the Adriondack. She didn't compete close to them but didn't disgrace herself against two fillies in the top ten of the country. If this $80K group seems weaker, she could find her spot.

2. Sea Pines - A FTS son of Connect. Dam (9 1-0-0) earned $42K. Siblings won (21 3-3-4) but not a lot of money. Connect's first crop are decent as sprinting (41 6-4-13) and 18% FTS. Trainer is 20% FTS. Decent workouts and I saw one that looked pretty decent (on lead against a son of Gun Runner). She could be ready to fire on debut.

3. Lockstep - Tried the lawn unsuccessfully for Rusty Arnold, I recall hearing he allows his young horses time to develop. He broke in a little took a light bump, looked green as hell the first 100 yards, fell back and took a lot of kickback from something other than grass (must have been real dry). He was faster than two horses and seemed to have a little more energy way back. He gets Jose O. and I wouldn't be surprised if a daughter of Nyquist fares better on dirt 2nd out than turf 1st out. You also get the turf to dirt angle with this one. Trust in rust.

4. Morning Matcha - He has two races, the last at Saratoga was restricted and a good one. First out saw her start slow against two good horses in Next Tuesday and Mainstay. She was never competitive or close to those two but finished well to nip another for third. Her second at Saratoga saw her slow of foot early again and last going into the turn. She passed 4 horses coming out of the turn and then showed a powerful turn of foot seemingly gaining a half length each stride. No doubt that finish is why she is the ML 2-1 favorite.

5. Fiftyshadesofrun - A son of Mineshaft had a decent start at Parx. She stalked the leader but could never make progress, more like idling in the stretch then tiring as the leader pulled away and a stretch runner passed her for second. Could she improve off that? Yes, but she would appear to be overmatched by at least two of the aforementioned horses.

6. G Money Liv - Another horse with one restricted race with poor performance. She was no matcha for Matcha in her first start but she didn't embarrass herself. her style was very similar to Matcha, running slow and green early, she led Matcha out of the turn and she encountered interference, with her head tilted. She gets blinkers today and Irad who wants that title bad. Second out she may get a faster start but can she improve enough to hold off Matcha at the longer distance.

7. Call Sign Charlie - A FTS son of Mission Impazible. Dam race record (11 3-0-2) earned $128K and won the AP Lassie stakes second out. Her offspring overall (31 1-0-5) and sprinting (8 0-0-2) have been a disappointment thus far. Sire 13% and 10% FTS is ok. Jorge is amazing 25% FTS. And she has had good works at Saratoga. She is the 9-2 ML third choice.

8. Love Unlimited - Another horse with a poor first performance. She broke ok, took a couple of love taps from an outside horse early, started falling back after a furlong, was last going into the turn, got encouragement to run while along the rail but could only pass one tired horse. I cannot recommend off that performance, but for those of you inclined to like her: Her breeding didn't suggest grass, so dirt may be better, she may have had something the team corrected since last race (though it is not apparent what) there may be some magic the trainer has worked on her. She is a hard NO for me.

9. Monshun - A FTS son of Unified. The 5-2 ML second choice. Dam record (13 3-0-2) earned $56K and won her MSW at Kee, but dropped to claiming later. The sibling sprint record (61 6-10-10) with the best earning $3K a race. Unified is a young and hot sire of dirt sprinters (17 6-3-3) and Sire to two Stakes winners (Behave Virginia and Roger McQueen) out of his first 10 starters. Trainer is 5% FTS. This one has a workout pattern I like, fast, then slow, fast then slow, primed for fast, so lookout.

[geroge.burns99]

WOW.....nice write ups...

Don't dismiss Lockstep.....

He's not bred for turf but he is for dirt.....

He has highest breeding rating from HTR pertaining to DIST/SURF

That turf race was a workout for today...

Arnold is 1.01 ROI with MSW

He's 30-7 with 1.71 ROI with 2nd race

Worth a flyer

the others I'll look at is the 2 & 7

Mike

[Mick]

Originally Posted by geroge.burns99

WOW.....nice write ups...

Don't dismiss Lockstep.....

He's not bred for turf but he is for dirt.....

Worth a flyer

Mike

I bet Monshun to WP as my primary bet with a win bet on Pout at 20-1. Not a bad day.

I posted that to David Aragon on twitter.

Twitter

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Last edited by Mick; 08-18-2021 at 03:39 PM.

[delfman]

Originally Posted by Mick

Sheet, Andy Sterling called me a red boarder last night for saying I bet Daufuskie. I was upset that he and Mr. Stabile seemed to mail in their selections for that race, I should have left it at that.

So today I post that I like Sue Ellen Mishkin ten minutes before post to prove I am no red boarder.

nice hit!
I had that horse myself.
Abreu had a few winners that day

[geroge.burns99]

Congrats guys....


Lockstep = MD CLAIMERS

[andicap]

Great write up and bet!

Where are you getting your data from?