Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Closed Thread
 
Thread Tools Rating: Thread Rating: 30 votes, 3.80 average.
Old 02-25-2019, 10:04 AM   #5371
FakeNameChanged
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg View Post
Interesting horse running in the 8th @ PARX today:

KINGSLAYER 20-1

What's interesting is he's been claimed a couple times recently--looking at what he's done lately, you gotta wonder why?

Now...here's where it gets crazy. Kingslayer will be running in his 3rd race in 3 weeks today. Doesn't show many works--but why would he? He had a 90-day layoff end of last year, and took all of Jan this year off.

His new trainer that claimed him last out, is one of those 3-for-50 trainers.
Normally that would be the end of my interest in Kingslayer--except for one thing.

His hapless trainer shows a decent win% and big ROI nowhere-- but "1ST RACE AFTER A CLAIM".

I'll put a few ducats down on the King today at Parx.

Good Luck,

-NCG
Greg, normally 3 or 4 claims in the last 10 get my interest, but 6 times in last 10? And Woodhouse made 4 of them alone. Looks like his Nice Surpise is the stronger half of entry to me. While I haven't heard it yet, we've been getting gale force winds all morning, so if Philly is getting hammered as well, may be cancelled. GL
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
FakeNameChanged is offline  
Old 02-25-2019, 10:59 AM   #5372
wolsons
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2003
Location: NYC
Posts: 425
Parx is cancelled today
wolsons is offline  
Old 02-26-2019, 10:45 AM   #5373
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
After spending the early morning hours handicapping Parx yesterday--only to have them cancel--decided to focus on the pick-6 @ TUP today.

Has anyone noticed tracks that have a casino...seem to cancel racing days more often than stand-alone tracks?

Anyone find anything good going today? I did bet the early double @ Parx:

MISS RACEY BIKE 8-1 in the 1st Race

to

BOB IN OUR MIDST 5/2

TRICKY GAMBLE 6-1

PAWN IT BACK 20-1

Didn't see much @ TUP besides the usual parade of short price-winners.
For kicks I threw in 6th race NUMANNY'S REWARD 20-1 into my P-6 ticket...along with TOCCET'S CHARM 15-1 in the last.

Just wishful thinking on my part--Best-Five consensus has all the favorites on top--if that ticket came in, you'd be looking at
a Pick-6 payoff of about $25.00 LOL.

What would possess people to wager their hard-earned money on a pick-6 with all probable favorites in each leg? Even if they are all close to $3.20 winners in all 6 races...that in itself is almost a miracle. I'm sure Math experts have a word for that.
No....not STUPIDITY. I'll name it the RISK VS REWARD CONTINUUM VORTEX.

It's been a pleasure--knock 'em dead today, fellas.

-NCG



NorCalGreg is offline  
Old 02-27-2019, 08:34 AM   #5374
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
A friend on this board, who's handle is "coachT" did a 1 month study on the 1,2,3 METHOD & the BEST-3 METHOD/spot plays...which appear on the BEST-5 program



He tracked those two plays with some interesting results. I wrote up a piece on the results--but now can't find the sum'bitch on my comp. I'll post it when it turns up.

The winningest track for both plays came from Delta with huge positive results. What brought this study on was we wondered if both methods agreed on the same horse--did that make the selection more likely to win? The answer? A resounding NO--it did not.

The 1-2-3 method, in this short testing period proved more profitable that the Best 3. Keep in mind this is completely mechanical, with both showing anywhere from 3 to 7 picks per track.

There is no mechanical method that can produce a profit-long haul. Unless it selects 1 or 2 a month. If there is such a thing...a mechanical method with picks everyday, that shows an overall profit, the person that has it ain't telling. I wouldn't either--nor would you.
Aqueduct had 45% winners--but didn't show a profit. Other tracks such as FGX & MVR (43%), GGF (42%), Sunland (48%) and a few others--eeked out small profits. More testing would surely erase any gains. I use some of these selections for horizontals, or add to Supers, etc.

So the next time you see an ad for a mechanical method, be it software or P&P--promising easy money blah blah-just remember there is no getting around actual user handicapping.

Last edited by NorCalGreg; 02-27-2019 at 08:37 AM.
NorCalGreg is offline  
Old 02-27-2019, 09:09 AM   #5375
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
Was wondering if there was any way to profit from the steady stream of short-price winners found everywhere except Parx. I'm sure someone has done studies on avg payoffs at the various tracks. I haven't, but it doesn't take a scientist to know that Parx--if not the highest avg mutuels, is surely near the top.

Okay, one of the tracks with the LOWEST avg mutuels has got to be Turf Paradise. They offer a quinella on every race--so using tools at my disposal (Exotic Bets & Best-5), I let them decide who would make up today's quinellas (as opposed to simply using the morning line's top-two)
The following are "Pick-All" cards from Exotic Bets using Platinum and Prime Power modes (there are also T/J% and Ability picks) but I didn't bother with them today.
THEN..I ran the consensus from Best-5, using it with the Pick-All cards-- arriving at my quinella selections.

NorCalGreg is offline  
Old 02-27-2019, 09:13 AM   #5376
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
Here is the Best-5 consensus. I'm probably going to have to hit 3 or 4 of these for any kind of profit.

Oh well..it's all in the interest of science. Any scratches go with the the two remaining consensus survivors (if there are two)




-NCG

Last edited by NorCalGreg; 02-27-2019 at 09:17 AM.
NorCalGreg is offline  
Old 02-27-2019, 10:38 AM   #5377
headhawg
crusty old guy
 
headhawg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Snarkytown USA
Posts: 3,909
Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg View Post
Was wondering if there was any way to profit from the steady stream of short-price winners found everywhere except Parx. I'm sure someone has done studies on avg payoffs at the various tracks. I haven't, but it doesn't take a scientist to know that Parx--if not the highest avg mutuels, is surely near the top.

Okay, one of the tracks with the LOWEST avg mutuels has got to be Turf Paradise...
There used to be a site with that information but I know that they stopped providing it at least two years ago. I don't even remember which site or how I found it. So a while ago I had a friend query his database because I thought that info was somewhat useful. IIRC, Turf Paradise was definitely at or near the bottom, and so were MTH, EVD, and LS. Toward the top were BEL, KEE, PRX, and most surprising to me -- GG. Maybe some enterprising member can provide an updated list broken out by track surface and sprint/route.
__________________
"Don't believe everything that you read on the Internet." -- Abraham Lincoln
headhawg is offline  
Old 02-27-2019, 01:01 PM   #5378
coacht
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 137
1-2-3/Best 3

I would like to add to Greg’s post that quite of few of the top picks in both areas ran second and third.

I did not keep a record but handicappers should keep that in mind if using these picks in exactas or trifectas.

Thx
coacht is offline  
Old 02-28-2019, 01:14 AM   #5379
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
Results of the Turf Paradise Quinella Experiment --(*passed on the 5th due to an early scratch)









Managed to show a small profit--although I wouldn't recommend anyone trying it, seriously.

-NCG
NorCalGreg is offline  
Old 03-01-2019, 10:34 AM   #5380
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
SANTA ANITA compliments of EXOTIC BETS!

Here's the Tip Sheet from Exotic Bets...keep in mind this isn't even 1/3 of the program--designed to make your Exotics much easier to pick, choose, and structure your wagers.--Good Luck

-NCG


NorCalGreg is offline  
Old 03-02-2019, 05:44 AM   #5381
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
Lightbulb KINGSLAYER

2 to 4K thread views a day...3 winners dropped in your lap--

and not a peep. Okay, I get it--those $7 & $8 winners can

get boring.

Well...I'm here to put the thrill back in to racing

The KING is back!



No..not Elvis. KINGSLAYER 15-1 @ PARX.

He's part of an entry--but the same rider is listed on both, which

means Castillo will attempt to ride them simultaneously. Nah, the

"other" will be scratched...leaving Kingslayer all the glory.


.


**You'll have to go back a few posts to find out what the interest

is in this particular horse.--NCG

Last edited by NorCalGreg; 03-02-2019 at 05:56 AM.
NorCalGreg is offline  
Old 03-02-2019, 09:50 AM   #5382
Cice
Registered User
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 125
Yes, you did well at SA yesterday. Nice! Send me link to the software please.
Cice is offline  
Old 03-03-2019, 12:06 AM   #5383
green80
Registered User
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,841
Delta Downs R1

check out what happened Race 1 at Delta Downs tonight. Stewards changed the results 1 hour after the race declared official and honored all bets on the horse they put up 1 hour later. Never seen anything like it.
green80 is offline  
Old 03-03-2019, 05:38 AM   #5384
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
Whaaaaaaaaaaatttttt? Don't know what's more strange--that they

changed the results an hour later---or they paid everybody.

That has the sound of a Twilight Zone episode


Kudos to Delta officials for doing the right thing.

-NCG
NorCalGreg is offline  
Old 03-03-2019, 08:35 AM   #5385
NorCalGreg
Authorized Advertiser
 
NorCalGreg's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
Soooo....you're broke but you want some horse-betting action today, huh? I've been there, brother. I got a plan for you--you need $10.00 or so--get your wife's credit card ( since you listen to gambling advice from strangers on the internet-your credit's surely maxxed out) Don't worry about that right now. Just add the 10 bucks to your ADW and put your wife's card back in her wallet.

Here's some solid selections from Santa Anita today

RACE #1 OH MAN 7-2
RACE #3 TEACHER'S TREASURE 8/5
RACE #5 EDWARDS GOING LEFT 8/5
RACE #6 STURDY ONE 2-1
RACE #7 DISTINCTIVE B 2-1
RACE #8 BEAUMARCHAIS 7-2


Parlay these to PLACE...if all goes well you'll be able to put the $10 back on your wife's card, and take her out to some place nice--like Taco Bell.

Personally, I'm only betting one horse--7TH RACE MAKE IT A TRIPLE 12-1.


*this is in no way intended as an enticement to gamble or steal from your wife.
NorCalGreg is offline  
Closed Thread




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 02:51 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.