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02-25-2019, 10:04 AM
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#5371
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
Interesting horse running in the 8th @ PARX today:
KINGSLAYER 20-1
What's interesting is he's been claimed a couple times recently--looking at what he's done lately, you gotta wonder why?
Now...here's where it gets crazy. Kingslayer will be running in his 3rd race in 3 weeks today. Doesn't show many works--but why would he? He had a 90-day layoff end of last year, and took all of Jan this year off.
His new trainer that claimed him last out, is one of those 3-for-50 trainers.
Normally that would be the end of my interest in Kingslayer--except for one thing.
His hapless trainer shows a decent win% and big ROI nowhere-- but "1ST RACE AFTER A CLAIM".
I'll put a few ducats down on the King today at Parx.
Good Luck,
-NCG
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Greg, normally 3 or 4 claims in the last 10 get my interest, but 6 times in last 10? And Woodhouse made 4 of them alone. Looks like his Nice Surpise is the stronger half of entry to me. While I haven't heard it yet, we've been getting gale force winds all morning, so if Philly is getting hammered as well, may be cancelled. GL
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
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02-25-2019, 10:59 AM
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#5372
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Registered User
Join Date: May 2003
Location: NYC
Posts: 425
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Parx is cancelled today
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02-27-2019, 08:34 AM
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#5374
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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A friend on this board, who's handle is "coachT" did a 1 month study on the 1,2,3 METHOD & the BEST-3 METHOD/spot plays...which appear on the BEST-5 program
He tracked those two plays with some interesting results. I wrote up a piece on the results--but now can't find the sum'bitch on my comp. I'll post it when it turns up.
The winningest track for both plays came from Delta with huge positive results. What brought this study on was we wondered if both methods agreed on the same horse--did that make the selection more likely to win? The answer? A resounding NO--it did not.
The 1-2-3 method, in this short testing period proved more profitable that the Best 3. Keep in mind this is completely mechanical, with both showing anywhere from 3 to 7 picks per track.
There is no mechanical method that can produce a profit-long haul. Unless it selects 1 or 2 a month. If there is such a thing...a mechanical method with picks everyday, that shows an overall profit, the person that has it ain't telling. I wouldn't either--nor would you.
Aqueduct had 45% winners--but didn't show a profit. Other tracks such as FGX & MVR (43%), GGF (42%), Sunland (48%) and a few others--eeked out small profits. More testing would surely erase any gains. I use some of these selections for horizontals, or add to Supers, etc.
So the next time you see an ad for a mechanical method, be it software or P&P--promising easy money blah blah-just remember there is no getting around actual user handicapping.
Last edited by NorCalGreg; 02-27-2019 at 08:37 AM.
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02-27-2019, 09:09 AM
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#5375
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Was wondering if there was any way to profit from the steady stream of short-price winners found everywhere except Parx. I'm sure someone has done studies on avg payoffs at the various tracks. I haven't, but it doesn't take a scientist to know that Parx--if not the highest avg mutuels, is surely near the top.
Okay, one of the tracks with the LOWEST avg mutuels has got to be Turf Paradise. They offer a quinella on every race--so using tools at my disposal (Exotic Bets & Best-5), I let them decide who would make up today's quinellas (as opposed to simply using the morning line's top-two)
The following are "Pick-All" cards from Exotic Bets using Platinum and Prime Power modes (there are also T/J% and Ability picks) but I didn't bother with them today.
THEN..I ran the consensus from Best-5, using it with the Pick-All cards-- arriving at my quinella selections.
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02-27-2019, 09:13 AM
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#5376
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Here is the Best-5 consensus. I'm probably going to have to hit 3 or 4 of these for any kind of profit.
Oh well..it's all in the interest of science. Any scratches go with the the two remaining consensus survivors (if there are two)
-NCG
Last edited by NorCalGreg; 02-27-2019 at 09:17 AM.
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02-27-2019, 10:38 AM
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#5377
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crusty old guy
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Snarkytown USA
Posts: 3,909
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorCalGreg
Was wondering if there was any way to profit from the steady stream of short-price winners found everywhere except Parx. I'm sure someone has done studies on avg payoffs at the various tracks. I haven't, but it doesn't take a scientist to know that Parx--if not the highest avg mutuels, is surely near the top.
Okay, one of the tracks with the LOWEST avg mutuels has got to be Turf Paradise...
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There used to be a site with that information but I know that they stopped providing it at least two years ago. I don't even remember which site or how I found it. So a while ago I had a friend query his database because I thought that info was somewhat useful. IIRC, Turf Paradise was definitely at or near the bottom, and so were MTH, EVD, and LS. Toward the top were BEL, KEE, PRX, and most surprising to me -- GG. Maybe some enterprising member can provide an updated list broken out by track surface and sprint/route.
__________________
"Don't believe everything that you read on the Internet." -- Abraham Lincoln
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02-27-2019, 01:01 PM
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#5378
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2015
Posts: 137
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1-2-3/Best 3
I would like to add to Greg’s post that quite of few of the top picks in both areas ran second and third.
I did not keep a record but handicappers should keep that in mind if using these picks in exactas or trifectas.
Thx
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02-28-2019, 01:14 AM
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#5379
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Results of the Turf Paradise Quinella Experiment --(*passed on the 5th due to an early scratch)
Managed to show a small profit--although I wouldn't recommend anyone trying it, seriously.
-NCG
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03-01-2019, 10:34 AM
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#5380
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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SANTA ANITA compliments of EXOTIC BETS!
Here's the Tip Sheet from Exotic Bets...keep in mind this isn't even 1/3 of the program--designed to make your Exotics much easier to pick, choose, and structure your wagers.--Good Luck
-NCG
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03-02-2019, 05:44 AM
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#5381
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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KINGSLAYER
2 to 4K thread views a day...3 winners dropped in your lap--
and not a peep. Okay, I get it--those $7 & $8 winners can
get boring.
Well...I'm here to put the thrill back in to racing
The KING is back!
No..not Elvis. KINGSLAYER 15-1 @ PARX.
He's part of an entry--but the same rider is listed on both, which
means Castillo will attempt to ride them simultaneously. Nah, the
"other" will be scratched...leaving Kingslayer all the glory.
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**You'll have to go back a few posts to find out what the interest
is in this particular horse.--NCG
Last edited by NorCalGreg; 03-02-2019 at 05:56 AM.
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03-02-2019, 09:50 AM
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#5382
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 125
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Yes, you did well at SA yesterday. Nice! Send me link to the software please.
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03-03-2019, 12:06 AM
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#5383
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Benton, La.
Posts: 1,841
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Delta Downs R1
check out what happened Race 1 at Delta Downs tonight. Stewards changed the results 1 hour after the race declared official and honored all bets on the horse they put up 1 hour later. Never seen anything like it.
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03-03-2019, 05:38 AM
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#5384
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Authorized Advertiser
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Oakland, Ca
Posts: 7,953
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Whaaaaaaaaaaatttttt? Don't know what's more strange--that they
changed the results an hour later---or they paid everybody.
That has the sound of a Twilight Zone episode
Kudos to Delta officials for doing the right thing.
-NCG
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