View Poll Results: Best Effort?
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30 30 30 30
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5 |
10.87% |
29 29 31 31
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4 |
8.70% |
31 31 29 29
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12 |
26.09% |
31 29 31 29
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3 |
6.52% |
31 29 29 31
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3 |
6.52% |
29 31 31 29
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10 |
21.74% |
29 31 29 31
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2 |
4.35% |
All the same
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7 |
15.22% |
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04-06-2017, 04:17 AM
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#1
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Apple 2GS Wiz
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Clarion, Pa
Posts: 8,478
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Best effort for the mile
If a horses paces on the lead at the rail for the full mile,
Which of these pace scenarios shows the best effort?
__________________
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.The only sure thing about luck is that it will change.
Bret Harte
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04-06-2017, 08:50 AM
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#2
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Registered User
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 6,843
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ray2000
If a horses paces on the lead at the rail for the full mile,
Which of these pace scenarios shows the best effort?
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Ray, just off the top of this ole noggin, I would have to say that the window of 1/4's is too limiting in respect to everyday fractions that have many multiple swings these days..
But, if pressed, given that limitation, I would guess at 29, 29, 31, 31, as my weak pick, followed closely by the 29, 31, 31, 29
scenario..
Funny thing tho, I have spent an inordinate amount of time flipping and making patterns, just such as these, lately...
If you substituted and used and measured "whole numbers" that range of 50 to 100, I am quite certain you would find some very worthwhile eye openening "pace patterns",in this regard
GL Ray with this, I hope you find what you are looking for....
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"Cursed be the man who puts his trust in man" - Jer 17:5 (KJV)
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04-06-2017, 10:46 AM
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#3
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Registered User
Join Date: Feb 2017
Posts: 590
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i was wondering instead of quarters why not half miles. 3 halfs to the mile ie. 1st q and 2nd 1st q an 3rd 3rd an fin . and i know that if you could find a horse that can move well in the turns that might be a good bet . thanks ray
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04-06-2017, 11:37 AM
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#4
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Apple 2GS Wiz
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Clarion, Pa
Posts: 8,478
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My reason for this poll was based on the generally accepted fact that all raceway horses have one brush, the classier horses can be used twice and champs could have three.
For the 2 brush type, does 2 accelerations with a breather in between expend more energy than an extended 1/2 mile fight?
Just curious what the cappers' thoughts were on this.
sharkey
I can't find it right now but there was a good thread on comparing the "3" halves in a mile race in this Forum a few years back.
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.The only sure thing about luck is that it will change.
Bret Harte
Last edited by Ray2000; 04-06-2017 at 11:45 AM.
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04-06-2017, 12:22 PM
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#5
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Registered User
Join Date: Dec 2009
Posts: 1,320
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A better interpretation would be track size and if the horse was wide around a turn in 29
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04-06-2017, 06:47 PM
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#6
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Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 272
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This is kind of a tough one, but I am going to go with 29,31,31,29. Obviously, the driver took advantage of a lack of pressure to milk the 2nd and 3rd quarter. But I have seen many horses win this way where they were in complete control and could have used that 29 somewhere else to put away other horses. Interesting question.
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04-06-2017, 07:05 PM
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#7
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Power User
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Markham, Ontario
Posts: 2,032
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I don't even think much. I already vote 29,31,31,29 long time ago.
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04-06-2017, 10:47 PM
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#8
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Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2008
Posts: 2,472
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I voted 31 29 29 31. Interesting question.
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04-09-2017, 12:38 PM
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#9
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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29 on both ends....this horse can leave fast, finish fast, and is rateable...going to win a lot of races because that's what it takes.
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04-10-2017, 03:35 AM
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#10
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Charm school graduate
Join Date: Jun 2016
Posts: 1,902
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MutuelClerk
I voted 31 29 29 31. Interesting question.
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That was my vote too.
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04-10-2017, 10:39 AM
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#11
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Registered User
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 8,195
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For those who believe that a horse who can leave fast and come home fast is a good horse to bet we have a horse at Woodbine in the first race tonight who had the following fractions when he went wire to wire in his last outing from the 7 hole which he won at 17-1.
His fractions were 26-30.2-31.2-26.3. Very unusual fractions even for Woodbine to have two sub 27 qtrs in the race His name is Only Half Bad. He is 5-1 ML and he is racing in the same class.
If you do decide to bet him, good luck. As far as I am concerned I cannot touch him with a 10 ft pole. The reason being wire horses who get away with slow middle halfs make poor bets at the windows.
I don't expect to see this horse in the exacta or the tri.
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04-10-2017, 11:41 AM
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#12
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Apple 2GS Wiz
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Clarion, Pa
Posts: 8,478
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Interesting example Sea
With Jeff Bratt Picking him in the program he'll be overbet, but this field is weak.
Passport To Art is the one to beat and OHB will have to respond to Sylvain like he did with McNair.
As for the poll:
Interesting results so far, more diverse opinions than I thought there'd be. The two scenarios emerging are most energy output comes from:
An extended 1/2 mile brush after a slow 1/2 mile pace.
2 brushes, start and finish with just motoring the middle half. willphorse is right about the effect of track size and wides, but I over simplified these choices.
Racing with cover or going the long mile effects energy output when evaluating the current form or shape. Track surface and wind conditions also come into play.
BTW
I'd like the program to include wind speed and direction but that ain't gonna happen.
When I was a regular track goer at The Meadows I'd always check the flag when I got there
and adjust picks for best front end or closer on windy days. Here again, wind direction on 2 turn, 3 turn, or 4 turn track makes a difference.
__________________
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.The only sure thing about luck is that it will change.
Bret Harte
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04-10-2017, 01:23 PM
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#13
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Power User
Join Date: Aug 2010
Location: Markham, Ontario
Posts: 2,032
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sea Biscuit
For those who believe that a horse who can leave fast and come home fast is a good horse to bet we have a horse at Woodbine in the first race tonight who had the following fractions when he went wire to wire in his last outing from the 7 hole which he won at 17-1.
His fractions were 26-30.2-31.2-26.3. Very unusual fractions even for Woodbine to have two sub 27 qtrs in the race His name is Only Half Bad. He is 5-1 ML and he is racing in the same class.
If you do decide to bet him, good luck. As far as I am concerned I cannot touch him with a 10 ft pole. The reason being wire horses who get away with slow middle halfs make poor bets at the windows.
I don't expect to see this horse in the exacta or the tri.
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I still like the #7. but have to watch out the #2 as the new trainer is Carmen Auciello .
I think I'll bet 72/725 but possible they are top 3 favorite and I'll only watch.
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04-10-2017, 01:28 PM
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#14
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Registered User
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: Lehigh Valley, PA.
Posts: 7,464
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That 7 horse at Woodbine tonight, it would be good to know if there was a tailwind in his last race. If there was a tailwind then his effort wouldn't be as good as it looks because the first and last quarters would have been wind aided.
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04-10-2017, 01:45 PM
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#15
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Apple 2GS Wiz
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Clarion, Pa
Posts: 8,478
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Quote:
Originally Posted by pandy
That 7 horse at Woodbine tonight, it would be good to know if there was a tailwind in his last race. If there was a tailwind then his effort wouldn't be as good as it looks because the first and last quarters would have been wind aided.
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That's true, and the obverse (opposite?, reverse?) is also true.
If there was a strong headwind, he's becoming a monster...
__________________
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.The only sure thing about luck is that it will change.
Bret Harte
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