Prime Power Numbers have changed

[Bill F]

Are others seeing that recently some Prime Power numbers have been totally out of whack?

My homegrown program uses the PP number as part of a formula to generate an odds line, and lately I'm seeing some real odds outliers on contenders whose PP number is way too low.

Citing a few examples from yesterday at the Spa, in the 2nd race the winner #8 Super Silver went off at 2 to 1, yet had the 2nd worst PP of 96.38. This was after having a PP of 114.56 in his last race where he ran 2nd and had a very competitive figure. (I'm aware that the number has always changed from one race to the next depending on today's race makeup, but never to the current extent).

In yesterday's 9th race at the Spa, the first 2 finishers had similar out of line low PP numbers.

I cited two, but there are countless examples of totally out of whack numbers.

To me, it appears that Brisnet has changed the secret sauce.

It's remotely possible that the new numbers will still rank the likeliest winner in order of most likely to least likely, but I'm even skeptical of that. I believe that the Twinspires / Bris curse has struck again.

Can anyone run a DB check on PP efficiency for the recent past?

[jasperson]

In my oddslline program I print out bris pp, but I don't use in my calculations.
I compared my oddsline output with pp at LRL,Del.Mth and tdn and didn,t notice any glaring difference. Is it just with Sar that you see the difference?

[Bill F]

I mainly play NY, so I can't really comment on out of town, but I'm wondering, are you referring to the printed Bris morning line (which is okay) or the Prime Power Number itself?

[Light]

I would say "Super Silver's" PP is more an error than a change in the PP formula.

Because in their summary section, SS is first in average distance/surface, speed last race, back speed, and current class. 2nd in average class last 3 and 2nd in LP. So by their own data he is the top horse in the field.

Bris is known to make errors in other areas as well.

[jasperson]

Originally Posted by Bill F

I mainly play NY, so I can't really comment on out of town, but I'm wondering, are you referring to the printed Bris morning line (which is okay) or the Prime Power Number itself?

It.s Brijs pp not morning line. I do use the morning line on maiden race where I don't have any data.

[jasperson]

Just some other thoughts on this. I don't know if pp includes track to track compensation or not. I know Quirin had a table for track to track compensation in his book that maybe the problem at sar.

[arw629]

Originally Posted by Bill F

Are others seeing that recently some Prime Power numbers have been totally out of whack?

My homegrown program uses the PP number as part of a formula to generate an odds line, and lately I'm seeing some real odds outliers on contenders whose PP number is way too low.

Citing a few examples from yesterday at the Spa, in the 2nd race the winner #8 Super Silver went off at 2 to 1, yet had the 2nd worst PP of 96.38. This was after having a PP of 114.56 in his last race where he ran 2nd and had a very competitive figure. (I'm aware that the number has always changed from one race to the next depending on today's race makeup, but never to the current extent).

In yesterday's 9th race at the Spa, the first 2 finishers had similar out of line low PP numbers.

I cited two, but there are countless examples of totally out of whack numbers.

To me, it appears that Brisnet has changed the secret sauce.

It's remotely possible that the new numbers will still rank the likeliest winner in order of most likely to least likely, but I'm even skeptical of that. I believe that the Twinspires / Bris curse has struck again.

Can anyone run a DB check on PP efficiency for the recent past?

I’ve noticed lately as well...

[Bill F]

Originally Posted by Light

I would say "Super Silver's" PP is more an error than a change in the PP formula.

Because in their summary section, SS is first in average distance/surface, speed last race, back speed, and current class. 2nd in average class last 3 and 2nd in LP. So by their own data he is the top horse in the field.

Bris is known to make errors in other areas as well.

Agree that it's more likely to be an "error", than a change of the Prime Power formula, but assuming that is the case, why are the errors occurring with such regularity?

[Bill F]

Originally Posted by jasperson

Just some other thoughts on this. I don't know if pp includes track to track compensation or not. I know Quirin had a table for track to track compensation in his book that maybe the problem at sar.

Although you can question how accurate the adjustments are, Bris does adjust all of their ratings and figures including Prime Power for track to track comparison.

[jasperson]

Bris pp at the 4 track I did SAT
Del 5wins 8 races
Lrl 2 wins 9 races
Mth 2 win s 13 races
\tdn 4 wins 9 races

Total 13 wins out of 39 races
33.3% wins
Not up lto par for pp

[Tom]

Originally Posted by Bill F

Citing a few examples from yesterday at the Spa, in the 2nd race the winner #8 Super Silver went off at 2 to 1, yet had the 2nd worst PP of 96.38. This was after having a PP of 114.56 in his last race where he ran 2nd and had a very competitive figure. (I'm aware that the number has always changed from one race to the next depending on today's race makeup, but never to the current extent).

Was Super Saver changing from last race today, ie, distance, surface, big class rise?

[Bill F]

Originally Posted by Tom

Was Super Saver changing from last race today, ie, distance, surface, big class rise?

Same distance, same surface, same class.

As Light suggested, it must be an error, but the errors keep occurring over and over.

[AMPHAR]

Bris prime power 1&2; Saratoga race 4 &= $ 50.50 exacta

Only race I paid attention to today. Not sure why the was ignored.

[PressThePace]

I'm seeing some glaring issues w/ Prime Power lately. Lots of situations where nothing is changing and yet the numbers are highly irregular.

[PressThePace]

For anyone with access to the BRIS summary for Presque Isle, take a look at the 6th race on the Monday card. Does anyone have a plausible explanation as to why the Hurricane Sophia has a higher Prime number than the Dance or Stroll? Makes absolutely no sense.