*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by NorCalGreg

Why even bother with complicated Turf races--sprint or route---who needs that added stress?

At the claiming level- dirt sprints only require SPEED. No need to worry about stamina, pedigree, fancy shoes, "yielding turf", foreign invaders (unless you consider Canada "foreign").

$20W on all

AQ
4TH-- BARONET 4-1

CTX
5TH-- DOWN EIGHTY G 5-1

EVG

4TH-- HUNTERS HURRICANE 10-1
7TH-- ELITE RHYTHM 8-1
10th- PATOOTY 5-1

SAX 2ND-- YA YA GIRL 9/5

Whew....almost got shut-out. That would have been embarrassing, after saying how much easier dirt sprints are to handicap.

BUT--a late hail-mary @ Evangeline by the name of

ELITE RHYTHM scores the upset -->>> $16.00 $8.20 $4.60 for a profitable day.

BET = $120 RET = $160 total for the week -->> +$40

*current bankroll now sits at $40.00--since I'm broke & forced to bet on credit with a bookie.

NCG☮

[NorCalGreg]

Completely forgot to post the TIPS longshots yesterday--and one hit--but red boarding rules prevent me from saying it was @ AQ and his initials were I.S.
That's all I'm allowed as an honorable gentleman, to say.

Dirt Sprints plays:

BTW....I don't play 7F races at all--regular speed capping just doesn't work on 'em. Believe it or not--my method of speed capping works far better on 1 Mile races--than the 7 and 7.5F races.

Mentioned yesterday I believe finding your niche in horse betting was absolutely vital to be successful....those 7F races might be a good niche for someone to try. It's not like they're hard to find--they run a ton of them @ TUP, CTX, GPX to name a few. Myself and probably many horseplayers --if they know where they're weak--it's usually that distance. So plenty of profit for a specialist.


AQU 7TH JET BLACK 8-1

EVG 3RD MAJOR INTIMIDATION 6-1

EVG 6TH MY RUSTON 9/2

EVG 8TH COOK SOME RICE 4-1

EVG 10TH NIKKISPRING 6-1

OPX 3RD MOON SILK 9/2

OPX 8TH ONE TRUE KISS 8-1

SAX 10TH RECORD HIGHS 8-1


✨NCG

[NorCalGreg]

From the Bris Summary...

[pandy]

Why would Jet Black get preference over Indian Soldier?

[Secondbest]

As the only S doesn't Trojan Nation have a shot?

[pandy]

The 7th is tricky, several first and second time starters who could show speed. Jet Black often has gate problems. I liked Benevolence, who finished well in debut, but could show more speed today.

[Secondbest]

I like outwork in the wood

[hracingplyr]

won a contest over at RDSS.

Bob

[Winger]

Originally Posted by pandy

Why would Jet Black get preference over Indian Soldier?

Just knowing Greg, I would guess because he has Best E1, Best E2, and Top Late Pace last race.

[Winger]

These are from my standard methods. I don't have the time to keep posting all of my picks, so here are my best bets and long shots.

Best Bets:
EMD-9 La Brisa (5/2)
LAX-1 Our New Flash (7/2)
PEN-2 Shazam (4/1)
WOX-9 Majestic Slew (5/2)
SUN-6 Snowbound Jones (3/1)

Long Shots: Play these across the board or include in your exotics
EVD-7 Our Glory Nears (15/1)
FON-7 Corner the Market (10/1)
SAX-2 Storming Candy (20/1)
WRD-3 Ski Ring (12/1)

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by pandy

Why would Jet Black get preference over Indian Soldier?

The way I 'cap--Benevolence barely get's any consideration for the win--while JET BLACK @ 8-1 is a complete standout. Actually, I never considered Benevolence after a quick courtesy check--why would your handicapping pick that one Pandy?

Serious-- I'd like to know.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Secondbest

As the only S doesn't Trojan Nation have a shot?

Believe it or not--I made a DALMORE/TROJAN exacta. Trojan just seems way too outclassed--but for a $2 box --seems worth a shot.

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Secondbest

I like outwork in the wood

We all have different methods, Secondbest--I just think OUTWORK--in this pace configuration--is too short on price and is going to have to put away some tough customers to have his one-dimensional way.

I'm open to a different point of view though

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Winger

Just knowing Greg, I would guess because he has Best E1, Best E2, and Top Late Pace last race.

LOL...naw, those horses are way overbet Still don't seem to have a handle on 6.5F yet. We had that thread going--even Ellis Starr and that guy that went to school with CJ chimed in--

It's not a hell-bent speed sprint---but late horses don't necessarily do well either. It's easier to just skip them, instead of stabbing I suppose.

We haven't heard from TLG yet....(or TLC either)

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Secondbest

"I like outwork in the wood"

"As the only S doesn't Trojan Nation have a shot?"

I'm thinking YOU should be making the picks around here, Secondbest.