Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rating: Thread Rating: 4 votes, 5.00 average.
Old 03-14-2011, 03:47 PM   #61
bob60566
Vancouver Island
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,747
Quote:
Originally Posted by jeebus1083
The standard definition of "handicapping" is to predict the winner of a race by comparing past performances and other relevant data to separate the contenders. This is passe.

I think a better definition of "handicapping" would be - the evaluation of the disadvantages a horse has that could make winning today's race more difficult.

I finally purchased NewPace last week, and I think that this methodology does a good job of evaluating the not-so-obvious. It truly is a different approach than the norm, and definitely puts you on those horses whose merits would have been thrown out the window in a conventional handicapping approach.
I have to agree
Mac
bob60566 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-16-2011, 06:33 PM   #62
jeebus1083
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 875
The power of NewPace was on full display in last night's 6th race at Mountaineer... I did not bet... I'm still testing this out, and will lay low until comfortable... anyway, based on my handicapping, the horses in the array were as followed (with final odds):

Early Horse - 6 (32-1)
Early Horse - 4 (3/2)
Late Horse - 7 (9/2)
Late Horse - 1 (2-1)

The #6 at 0-for-34 lifetime, would be an automatic throwout using conventional, acceptable handicapping rules/logic. The connections were horrendous, further darkening the horse.

So the race... 2-3-4 did the early running, and who came late?

The 6... drawing clear at $66.80.

Order of finish...
6-4-7-1

The EXACT order of my Early-Early/Late-Late array!

$2 Ex - $163.80
$2 Tri - $814.80
$2 Super - $1611.60

If one was brave enough to separate themselves from the chalks in the P3...
$2 P3 (6-2-1) - $432.00

Dave Schwartz can attest to this. I sent him the screenshots of my handicapping and the race results almost immediately following the race. Feel free to post my screenshots.

When you get results like these (even if it doesn't happen regularly), you have to pay attention.
jeebus1083 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-16-2011, 07:39 PM   #63
bob60566
Vancouver Island
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,747
Quote:
Originally Posted by jeebus1083
The power of NewPace was on full display in last night's 6th race at Mountaineer... I did not bet... I'm still testing this out, and will lay low until comfortable... anyway, based on my handicapping, the horses in the array were as followed (with final odds):

Early Horse - 6 (32-1)
Early Horse - 4 (3/2)
Late Horse - 7 (9/2)
Late Horse - 1 (2-1)

The #6 at 0-for-34 lifetime, would be an automatic throwout using conventional, acceptable handicapping rules/logic. The connections were horrendous, further darkening the horse.

So the race... 2-3-4 did the early running, and who came late?

The 6... drawing clear at $66.80.

Order of finish...
6-4-7-1

The EXACT order of my Early-Early/Late-Late array!

$2 Ex - $163.80
$2 Tri - $814.80
$2 Super - $1611.60

If one was brave enough to separate themselves from the chalks in the P3...
$2 P3 (6-2-1) - $432.00

Dave Schwartz can attest to this. I sent him the screenshots of my handicapping and the race results almost immediately following the race. Feel free to post my screenshots.

When you get results like these (even if it doesn't happen regularly), you have to pay attention.
Race7 was the race last night $60 Ex and race #5 had all four.
Mac
bob60566 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-16-2011, 08:08 PM   #64
Cratos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: The Big Apple
Posts: 4,252
Quote:
Originally Posted by raybo
It's really an energy/positional problem, not just a "running style/pace" problem. How much energy can a horse expend in order to get to the front 4, at the stretch, and after expanding that amount of energy, how much energy will he have left?
Very well stated and the late Phil Bull would be proud of you.
__________________
Independent thinking, emotional stability, and a keen understanding of both human and institutional behavior are vital to long-term investment success – My hero, Warren Edward Buffett

"Science is correct; even if you don't believe it" - Neil deGrasse Tyson
Cratos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-16-2011, 09:30 PM   #65
John
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2001
Posts: 1,719
C.J. has the best pace numbers. Hands Down!!! today at GPX His pace numbers did well and if you catch one that is 9 points higher than the others He will win. Not big payoffs on the +9 but they win. I feel that the cheaper the track, the more pace [ EP ] prevails


__________________
"Kindness in words, creates confidence. Kindness in thinking creates profoundness. Kindness in giving, creates love."
Lao Tzu
John is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-16-2011, 09:59 PM   #66
bob60566
Vancouver Island
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 1,747
Quote:
Originally Posted by John
C.J. has the best pace numbers. Hands Down!!! today at GPX His pace numbers did well and if you catch one that is 9 points higher than the others He will win. Not big payoffs on the +9 but they win. I feel that the cheaper the track, the more pace [ EP ] prevails


Very good coment
bob60566 is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-23-2011, 12:17 PM   #67
pondman
Registered User
 
Join Date: Mar 2011
Location: California
Posts: 1,225
Quote:
Originally Posted by jeebus1083
For starters, I find EP times are very race-sensitive. Let's looks at two runners: Horse A has an EP of 58.00 fps, and Horse B is 56.66 fps, and are matched up based on those lines. The seemingly correct assumption is that Horse A has a clear advantage on Horse B. Game over. Or is it?.
I put myself through college breaking fraction (on a 286) in California during the 80s. Just want to throw in my opinion. There are race distances and classes that are more suitable for this method. I don't know the details of this methodology. But from what I know, lower claiming sprint races will probalby produce more contenders. I want to repeat the word contenders. I personally wouldn't use this method to single out horses.

Each race needs a floor for the final quarter (assuming you are breaking fractions at the half.) I haven't look at this in a long time, but I remember the rule for Golden Gate at the time was 50.3 fps in the stretch. Seventy-nine percent of the winners were in the top 4 at the half. If you sat and waited for the right race you still could probably make some money playing tri's in both Southern and Northern California. But in today's world you are going to have deal with the cheap exotic crowd.

The downside to this method probably is the unknowns-- shippers, layoffs, barn changes. There are much better methods to handling the unknowns.
pondman is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-24-2011, 01:41 AM   #68
Kevroc
Chubby Chaser
 
Kevroc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: New York
Posts: 484
Quote:
Originally Posted by jeebus1083
The power of NewPace was on full display in last night's 6th race at Mountaineer... I did not bet... I'm still testing this out, and will lay low until comfortable... anyway, based on my handicapping, the horses in the array were as followed (with final odds):

Early Horse - 6 (32-1)
Early Horse - 4 (3/2)
Late Horse - 7 (9/2)
Late Horse - 1 (2-1)

The #6 at 0-for-34 lifetime, would be an automatic throwout using conventional, acceptable handicapping rules/logic. The connections were horrendous, further darkening the horse.

So the race... 2-3-4 did the early running, and who came late?

The 6... drawing clear at $66.80.

Order of finish...
6-4-7-1

The EXACT order of my Early-Early/Late-Late array!

$2 Ex - $163.80
$2 Tri - $814.80
$2 Super - $1611.60

If one was brave enough to separate themselves from the chalks in the P3...
$2 P3 (6-2-1) - $432.00

Dave Schwartz can attest to this. I sent him the screenshots of my handicapping and the race results almost immediately following the race. Feel free to post my screenshots.

When you get results like these (even if it doesn't happen regularly), you have to pay attention.
This is great but, if I were running the NewPace strat and came up with those contenders, I'd be thinking the race was a pass.. because in the exploitation (betting) phase, we have two horses under 7/2 and no real value in the race. The only way you are making money in this race is if you catch the miracle outcome.

I'm not trying to rain on the parade but, I think that if we are using this method correctly, we are passing on races that bear contenders of such prices.

While I'm commenting on NewPace, I'd like to add that I have been thinking of a valid way to use the method in horizontal wagers.

If we agree that the hit rate of contenders is 80%. Then a Daily Double wager would be two independent events of 80%.... or .8^2 = 0.64

So we should expect to hit the DD 64% of the time when using our contenders. However, 4x4 or 4x5 etc can be a large ticket and we need to make sure that on the wagers we hit, we are getting sufficient value.

I'm tooling around with the idea that by breaking down the odds into percentage and only using a cumulative percentage less than 64% in each race, we stay under the threshold that would strip our value.

Still tinkering with this but, a major step when adding the percentages together is to not use more than one horse that is 7/2 or lower. Say you have a 2/1 and a 3/1, only use one of these. It keeps your percentage down and allows you to use the higher priced horses. Or better yet, skip races with more that one contender sitting at 7/2 or lower.

Same for pick threes. .8^3 = 0.512

Looks great, right? Hitting pick threes at 51%! That's better than a coin flip. However, we need to trim ticket size or else we are treading water or worse. 4x4x4=64. We have to justify making p3 tickets that large, thats why I suggest using the percentage method to stay within reason.

Pick fours? .8^4 = 0.4096 Roughly 41% hit rate.

Pick six weighs in at .8^6 = 0.262144 or 26%.

Thats cashing 1 of 4 tickets! But, think of how expensive these tickets would be.. we need to go smaller by only using 26% of the odds in each race.

Del Mar's website have a great tool for converting odds into percentage, it is called the "Morning Line Tool". It can be found here.. http://www.dmtc.com/handicapping/tools/mltool.php

Another issue is that with NewPace we are betting single races and we know what odds we are getting. In these multirace wagers we have to go by M/L or making our own lines. Personally, I will use the M/L to come up with the percentages but, if there are scratches it becomes useless. Twinspires offers Profitline. It differs from the M/L but, one good thing is that it changes along with scratches, so it can be used to derive percentages in the event of scratches.

Please comment.. I know it is raw but, I'm putting it out there.
Kevroc is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-24-2011, 03:45 AM   #69
Dave Schwartz
 
Dave Schwartz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,878
I don't know why you wouldn't think the race was playable.

I actually like that race as a play - The 32/1 horse makes it work. That horse WILL be profitable in the long run and possibly the 9/2 as well.

So, since I feel that those 2 will be profitable long term, it is logical to exploit the race using those two horses, both straight up and as keys.

So, I'd get:

#6 wp
#7 w

(6-7) x (6-7-4-1) exacta key (reverse)


I mean, the race is not a candidate for a 4-horse box but the race is very playable. The play I outlined above is very logical, don't you think?


Dave
Dave Schwartz is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-24-2011, 03:51 AM   #70
Dave Schwartz
 
Dave Schwartz's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Reno, NV
Posts: 16,878
In horizontal wagers the same principles apply.

You should play the horses that have VALUE - you MUST figure out how to take advantage of them. The word I like to use is "exploit."
Dave Schwartz is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 03-24-2011, 04:04 AM   #71
Kevroc
Chubby Chaser
 
Kevroc's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2010
Location: New York
Posts: 484
Yes, that does seem logical.

I guess in those situations, what i'm looking for is a rule of thumb.

In this example the short priced horses are only used with the longer priced horses in exacta boxes. Not with each other and not in the win pool.

Its low risk, high reward, low hit rate. I get it.

My initial take on the contenders box was using the two earlies and the two lates in an ex box. I assumed that if the prices were short, we would pass.

Would be interested in hearing comments from anyone about my percentage idea.

I find it difficult to see 64% DD and 51% P3 and NOT go crazy trying to figure out how to use that!

Last edited by Kevroc; 03-24-2011 at 04:06 AM.
Kevroc is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:12 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.