Wow

[RaceTrackDaddy]

Every once in a while I stop in to see if any topics are posted that I might be interested in viewing.

Seems this forum has become a pick site.

I miss those days of heated discussions on the problems of the industry. Given the decline in horses entered in the stake races this year I have to assume that it trickled down to the message boards.

No controversies? No new equipment?

Happy Juggette and Jug Week to one and All!

[traynor]

Originally Posted by RaceTrackDaddy

Every once in a while I stop in to see if any topics are posted that I might be interested in viewing.

Seems this forum has become a pick site.

I miss those days of heated discussions on the problems of the industry. Given the decline in horses entered in the stake races this year I have to assume that it trickled down to the message boards.

No controversies? No new equipment?

Happy Juggette and Jug Week to one and All!

It may seem that way, but the contrarian view--that "practical application" is FAR more important than "just theory" seems much more prevalent. Both here and on the thoroughbred side. "Theoretical" discussions (which I MUCH prefer) are frequently sidetracked or overloaded with "demands of proof"--usually along the line of "posting selections for an extended enough period to indicate you are not blowing smoke."

In some cases, the two otherwise distinct points of view may be presented in concert, with nothing more useful than either presented separately. Other than an excuse to engage in some kind of "cyber dialogue" that goes nowhere and serves little or no purpose, the bottom line is that anyone with some kind of "positive return strategy" is not going to reveal the workings of such a strategy--other than in intentionally generic, ambiguous terms (the "theory" part) or short segments of output (the "application" part) that--in most cases--does little more than going nowhere and serving little or no purpose. It is the nature of the playing field.

Some time back, I made a statement that I found Yonkers an easy track at which to make a profit with a specific type of wager. That could be considered the "strategy" part (without going into extended, boring detail of the specific tactics involved in individual applications). The subsequent postings I have made, very narrowly focused on the "application" part, have been posted relatively regularly, with little or no comment other than a running balance (currently quite negative). There is purpose in such.

As much as I personally dislike the notion (primarily because I have little or no interest in which horses others select, or why they select them, because I think I can do better), I understand that "theory without specific application" requires a rigorous type of cognitive effort that many (if not most) seem to avoid--applying generic principles to their own specific examples and their own specific applications. Rather than being taught how to fish, they seem to want only the fish--preferably caught, cleaned, cooked, garnished, and served up on a silver platter in a manner that requires little or no actual thought or effort. Again, it is the nature of the playing field, and of the "players" on that field.

I am acquainted with a number of people "consistently doing well" at wagering on horse races. The specific techniques and strategies they employ--for the most part--I have never seen in print, nor have I seen them posted on the various "handicapping" forums. The generic techniques and strategies are often found in writings (and postings) on the topics of data analysis, data mining, and data modeling. Mostly not rocket science, mostly not too rigorous, but ALL requiring more thought than endless debates about Beyer Speed Figures or "track biases" or "hidden class" or any number of other topics that seem so dearly loved by forum readers (and horse race bettors in general).

From my perspective (and I think from the perspective of a number of others who bet for income rather than "play") it is not so much that they don't want to "reveal their strategies" as that--lacking the theoretical foundations of knowledge essential to the understanding of the underlying principles of those strategies--it really wouldn't do the readers any good anyway. They would look at it, dismiss it as "unsupported theory," and go back to the same endless "debates" about topics that were old school 30 years ago.

That is all fine with me.

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

A message board is capable of multiple threads. I have no disagreements with the philosophy of your post and the art of handicapping is what brought me to favor harness racing.

But there are so many issues affecting the game which has caused many handicappers to become ex-handicappers. It is why so many of us see the continued decline in popularity resulting in the ultimate demise of harness racing in the not too distant future unless somebody with a clue is given the authority to change the game and the culture.

Examples of issues worth discussing:

* Gural has officially given up on the passage of North Jersey casinos which should lead to the end of harness racing at the Meadowlands and the possible domino effect towards the ultimate end of the sport.

* Delaware casinos screaming poverty. They did not mention ending the subsidy of Dover and Harrington purses as a solution -- yet.

* The prevalence of the courtesy tuck makes harness racing more like bicycle racing.

* Judges at different tracks make up the rules as they go regarding pylon infractions.

* Fewer owners and trainers. Uncoupled entries have become the rule instead of the exceptions.

* Illegal drugs as the catalyst for success.

* Lack of marketing

[pandy]

All of the things you've mentioned are negatives and problems. But the biggest problem harness racing has is the high percentage of winning favorites and the speed and post position bias. Once you relegate handicapping to trying to figure out which horse or horses from post 1 through 5 are going to leave, that is not interesting or exciting. It's not good racing. That's the biggest problem, imo, speed and post bias and chalk. And the reason for that is the advancement of the sulky, so it isn't going to get any better. The only way to have decent harness racing with the modern day sulkies and wheels is to go around two turns, or, on the three and four turn tracks, they would have to experiment with longer races and longer run ups until they find something that gets the closers back into the game.

When I first started following racing at Roosevelt and Yonkers, there were drug trainers and letting a horse leave and tuck was common, yet the handle was huge, the racing was great, and the payoffs were great with favorites winning at 34%. But horses won from second and third over and posts 6, 7 and 8 won twice as often as they do no.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by Jess Hawsen Arown

A message board is capable of multiple threads. I have no disagreements with the philosophy of your post and the art of handicapping is what brought me to favor harness racing.

But there are so many issues affecting the game which has caused many handicappers to become ex-handicappers. It is why so many of us see the continued decline in popularity resulting in the ultimate demise of harness racing in the not too distant future unless somebody with a clue is given the authority to change the game and the culture.

Examples of issues worth discussing:

* Gural has officially given up on the passage of North Jersey casinos which should lead to the end of harness racing at the Meadowlands and the possible domino effect towards the ultimate end of the sport.

* Delaware casinos screaming poverty. They did not mention ending the subsidy of Dover and Harrington purses as a solution -- yet.

* The prevalence of the courtesy tuck makes harness racing more like bicycle racing.

* Judges at different tracks make up the rules as they go regarding pylon infractions.

* Fewer owners and trainers. Uncoupled entries have become the rule instead of the exceptions.

* Illegal drugs as the catalyst for success.

* Lack of marketing

There are many factors that influence the future of harness racing. It is unclear what value there is in extended discussions of topics about which one can do absolutely nothing, and which will have zero effect on the topic discussed. Specifically, discussions without action are of little or no value beyond creating an illusion of "doing something about it." They become equivalent to complaining about the weather/politics/economy/whatever else--a social activity primarily motivated by a desire to create a sense of affiliation by complaining about the same things others are complaining about.

It is what it is. If complaining does zilch to change it, why bother? The time might be better spent thinking about what you can do "right" rather than what others are doing "wrong." Perhaps teach prospective or new "racing fans" how to lose less and win more? This is a capitalist society. Showing them how to put money in their pockets is far more persuasive (and more useful, and more likely to encourage further involvement) than encouraging them to complain about things they can do nothing about anyway.

Which may be exactly why so many "post selections." They may have realized that the continual emphasis on what is "wrong" with racing plays out as a strong deterrent to anyone considering further involvement. Attracting new bettors is easy. Just show them how to win. All the many "problems" of racing pale in comparison to the primary problem--most bettors have nothing to look forward to as a reward for further involvement except losing--and the company of complainers.

[pandy]

In the 70's and 80's I knew many harness bettors and several professional harness bettors, all from the NY and NJ area. As the percentage of winning favorites, and the percentage of wire to wire winners, kept increasing, one by one these harness bettors switched to thoroughbred racing.

I agree with Traynor, if people win they'll keep betting. But that's the problem. Most good harness handicappers switched to thoroughbred racing because of perceived "value" in wagering opportunities. You're not going to generate more harness fans trying to teach them how to bet a bad product.

[caper]

Originally Posted by pandy

All of the things you've mentioned are negatives and problems. But the biggest problem harness racing has is the high percentage of winning favorites and the speed and post position bias. Once you relegate handicapping to trying to figure out which horse or horses from post 1 through 5 are going to leave, that is not interesting or exciting. It's not good racing. That's the biggest problem, imo, speed and post bias and chalk. And the reason for that is the advancement of the sulky, so it isn't going to get any better. The only way to have decent harness racing with the modern day sulkies and wheels is to go around two turns, or, on the three and four turn tracks, they would have to experiment with longer races and longer run ups until they find something that gets the closers back into the game.

When I first started following racing at Roosevelt and Yonkers, there were drug trainers and letting a horse leave and tuck was common, yet the handle was huge, the racing was great, and the payoffs were great with favorites winning at 34%. But horses won from second and third over and posts 6, 7 and 8 won twice as often as they do no.

I agree. Honestly I believe Yonkers for example should start making horses carry weight. It would have to be different then thoroughbreds as pulling weight is probably easier then carrying it. Maybe clamping the weight to the bikes.... Either way a lot of trial an error would have to go into it. The 8 hole would be carrying 50lbs less then the 1 hole for example. I know that would make a HUGE difference.

[caper]

After thinking about it some more this is how I would like to see Yonkers raceway do it. The weight would be carried by some clamping device that would go on the bike.

Post 1&2- 50lbs
Post 3&4- 40lbs
Post 5&6-20lbs
Post 7&8- 0lbs

I think this would be huge in helping out how a race develops. Outside horses would leave harder to attempt to take advantage of the weight advantage, which itself would create major flow. That inside speed would be much better challenged by the 5 and 6 horses and over all speed would just not hold up as well, unless it's from big time leavers from the outside, but that itself is hard to do.

[pandy]

Originally Posted by caper

After thinking about it some more this is how I would like to see Yonkers raceway do it. The weight would be carried by some clamping device that would go on the bike.

Post 1&2- 50lbs
Post 3&4- 40lbs
Post 5&6-20lbs
Post 7&8- 0lbs

I think this would be huge in helping out how a race develops. Outside horses would leave harder to attempt to take advantage of the weight advantage, which itself would create major flow. That inside speed would be much better challenged by the 5 and 6 horses and over all speed would just not hold up as well, unless it's from big time leavers from the outside, but that itself is hard to do.

Interesting idea.

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

Originally Posted by caper

After thinking about it some more this is how I would like to see Yonkers raceway do it. The weight would be carried by some clamping device that would go on the bike.

Post 1&2- 50lbs
Post 3&4- 40lbs
Post 5&6-20lbs
Post 7&8- 0lbs

I think this would be huge in helping out how a race develops. Outside horses would leave harder to attempt to take advantage of the weight advantage, which itself would create major flow. That inside speed would be much better challenged by the 5 and 6 horses and over all speed would just not hold up as well, unless it's from big time leavers from the outside, but that itself is hard to do.

I have absolutely no idea if that idea makes sense, but I love seeing people thinking about a problem and coming up with ideas.

Can someone with an engineering background comment?

[Jess Hawsen Arown]

Originally Posted by traynor

There are many factors that influence the future of harness racing. It is unclear what value there is in extended discussions of topics about which one can do absolutely nothing, and which will have zero effect on the topic discussed. Specifically, discussions without action are of little or no value beyond creating an illusion of "doing something about it." They become equivalent to complaining about the weather/politics/economy/whatever else--a social activity primarily motivated by a desire to create a sense of affiliation by complaining about the same things others are complaining about.

It is what it is. If complaining does zilch to change it, why bother? The time might be better spent thinking about what you can do "right" rather than what others are doing "wrong." Perhaps teach prospective or new "racing fans" how to lose less and win more? This is a capitalist society. Showing them how to put money in their pockets is far more persuasive (and more useful, and more likely to encourage further involvement) than encouraging them to complain about things they can do nothing about anyway.

Which may be exactly why so many "post selections." They may have realized that the continual emphasis on what is "wrong" with racing plays out as a strong deterrent to anyone considering further involvement. Attracting new bettors is easy. Just show them how to win. All the many "problems" of racing pale in comparison to the primary problem--most bettors have nothing to look forward to as a reward for further involvement except losing--and the company of complainers.

See, you contradicted your own "head in the sand" remarks that started your post with your opinion on the primary problem.

People can make a difference by offering opinions. Just ask Ben Franklin and Thomas Paine about their thoughts on the power of the people.

OK. so it might be difficult to ask them anything--but you get my point.

Keep those thoughts flowing.

[caper]

Originally Posted by Jess Hawsen Arown

I have absolutely no idea if that idea makes sense, but I love seeing people thinking about a problem and coming up with ideas.

Can someone with an engineering background comment?

Yeah. You would have to do a lot of testing IMO. I know drivers weight makes a difference, but only to some optimal weight. You see some good heavy drivers, say over 200/220, with good instincts, but in the end the extra weight just kills them. You're over 200lbs that hurts a horses chances pretty bad. A guy 160 lbs has a huge advantage over a guy 200 lbs, but that same advantage doesn't seem to carry for the guy at 120 lbs vs the guys 160. Not sure why, maybe a traction thing, I don't know, but I believe that to be the case.

Anyway, yeah, to me that would be the biggest thing you could do in regards to change. I'd be a lot more confident in the 7&8 posts if they had a 50 lb weight advantage on the 1 & 2 post. For me it would make for a lot more interesting puzzles. I just think it would make for a lot more flow in a race. I really think they should start experimenting with weight.

Just have to figure out a mechanism to attach it safely to a race bike.

[traynor]

Originally Posted by Jess Hawsen Arown

See, you contradicted your own "head in the sand" remarks that started your post with your opinion on the primary problem.

People can make a difference by offering opinions. Just ask Ben Franklin and Thomas Paine about their thoughts on the power of the people.

OK. so it might be difficult to ask them anything--but you get my point.

Keep those thoughts flowing.

No contradiction.

"People can make a difference by offering opinions" is a myth to keep the weak and powerless weak and powerless. Or are you aware of some change in the racing industry that was precipitated by the opinions of bettors (other than track management catering to the VERY small handful of "major bettors" they consider primary customers)?

Similarly, "the power of the people" is highly debatable as a source of meaningful change. People think what people think because they are told to think that way. People believe what people believe because they are told to believe those things.

Effecting meaningful (and useful to the bettor) changes in the racing industry is simple. Stop attending races and stop betting until those changes are made. Simple stuff. Not rocket science.

[RaceTrackDaddy]

Now this is the social interaction that I desire. I posted the thread prior to the Jugette and Jug and came back post events.

I feel like I am back at home at PA.

Thanks to all who responded to this thread.

[pandy]

Effecting meaningful (and useful to the bettor) changes in the racing industry is simple. Stop attending races and stop betting until those changes are made. Simple stuff. Not rocket science.

People have already stopped attending and betting harness races, and yet no significant changes in the industry.