|
|
09-17-2018, 10:12 PM
|
#16
|
Registered User
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Houston, TX
Posts: 1,519
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by dansan
Hope the DRF does'nt increase the fee for that valuable information
|
It's got value, but as previously stated by sammy the sage you need context.
|
|
|
09-17-2018, 10:25 PM
|
#17
|
Registered User
Join Date: May 2009
Posts: 1,492
|
value
good luck
|
|
|
09-17-2018, 11:04 PM
|
#18
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: The Big Apple
Posts: 4,252
|
I am sorry that you feel that way, but I didn’t ignore anything because all the input data is available free on the Internet through various sources (NYRA, DRF, EQUIBASE, TRAKUS, etc.); all present bits of free useable data , but you should have the algorithmic software tools from math, science, and statistics with a keen awareness of thoroughbred handicapping concepts plus enough funds, time, and manpower to employ the effort to make a venture like this successful.
The reason I initially posted the formula was to show that it can be done scientifically, but it would be good if the data was given to the horseplayer free and calculated.
__________________
Independent thinking, emotional stability, and a keen understanding of both human and institutional behavior are vital to long-term investment success – My hero, Warren Edward Buffett
"Science is correct; even if you don't believe it" - Neil deGrasse Tyson
|
|
|
09-17-2018, 11:37 PM
|
#19
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: central fla.
Posts: 4,874
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cratos
I am sorry that you feel that way, but I didn’t ignore anything because all the input data is available free on the Internet through various sources (NYRA, DRF, EQUIBASE, TRAKUS, etc.); all present bits of free useable data , but you should have the algorithmic software tools from math, science, and statistics with a keen awareness of thoroughbred handicapping concepts plus enough funds, time, and manpower to employ the effort to make a venture like this successful.
The reason I initially posted the formula was to show that it can be done scientifically, but it would be good if the data was given to the horseplayer free and calculated.
|
I wasn't asking about all the data...was asking about horses weights prior to the race...
By the way...am looking at weights TOTALLY different light than you and your crew...
..sounds like...ya'll are back figuring weight...which is useless...for my purposes anyways...
Will be if gulfstream does right for the horseplayer's before NYRA..
__________________
got handed a lemon...make lemonade....add sugar or brown sugar or stevia or my personal favorite....miracle fruit....google it...thank me later...
|
|
|
09-18-2018, 01:07 AM
|
#20
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: The Big Apple
Posts: 4,252
|
I will respond to you in this way: weight itself is useless, but when converted to mass it becomes one of the most powerful metrics in the calculation of the predictive outcome of a horserace due to the many different performance metrics that can produce of the horse’s historical race performances and its future performance(s).
Anyone who predicts knows that a before and after calculation is needed to provide legitimacy to the predicted outcome.
The following statement from your post: “By the way...am looking at weights TOTALLY different light than you and your crew.” is a head scratcher to me because we are not engaged in head-to-head wagering; we are if we are wagering in the same pool are wagering against many other bettors on-track and off-track.
I wish you much success. whatever method or metric you choose to use.
__________________
Independent thinking, emotional stability, and a keen understanding of both human and institutional behavior are vital to long-term investment success – My hero, Warren Edward Buffett
"Science is correct; even if you don't believe it" - Neil deGrasse Tyson
|
|
|
09-18-2018, 01:23 AM
|
#21
|
Veteran
Join Date: Feb 2016
Posts: 4,553
|
Think Sammy is right about the need not just to have the weight of today’s horse but what was his weight from his previous races as well so you can see patterns of change (or not)...
Sometimes I have thought that the biggest, tallest, most muscular, neck bowing athlete has a good shot based on just being the Alpha male at the time...highest weight in the field might play into that idea...just a thought, no proof.
|
|
|
09-18-2018, 06:34 AM
|
#22
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 2,176
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey
Think Sammy is right about the need not just to have the weight of today’s horse but what was his weight from his previous races as well so you can see patterns of change (or not)...
Sometimes I have thought that the biggest, tallest, most muscular, neck bowing athlete has a good shot based on just being the Alpha male at the time...highest weight in the field might play into that idea...just a thought, no proof.
|
Sea Biscuit to War Admiral, "How's it hangin' big boy?"
__________________
One of the downsides of the Internet is that it allows like-minded people to form communities, and sometimes those communities are stupid.
|
|
|
09-18-2018, 07:35 AM
|
#23
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: central fla.
Posts: 4,874
|
So Cratos...
1st...you said you had gotten all the weights for the horses at Saratoga
2nd..time around....no...I was just showing how it could be done with all the data available.
3rd...Still avoiding a direct answer...hhhhmmmm....look a "vigors the grey's" response...he's on the right path...
Anyways...best of luck to you as well...
__________________
got handed a lemon...make lemonade....add sugar or brown sugar or stevia or my personal favorite....miracle fruit....google it...thank me later...
|
|
|
09-18-2018, 11:14 AM
|
#24
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: The Big Apple
Posts: 4,252
|
I made the following statement in post #11 of this thread: “They were all made before and after each race each day; in my post (#4 of this thread) explains the science in a formula.” And again I confirmed in post #20 with the following: “I will respond to you in this way: weight itself is useless, but when converted to mass it becomes one of the most powerful metrics in the calculation of the predictive outcome of a horserace due to the many different performance metrics that can produce of the horse’s historical race performances and its future performance(s).”
This was a simplistic way of stating how to use weight (converted to mass) in the handicapping of horseracing without going into ODE of calculus and the rigors of applied physics.
__________________
Independent thinking, emotional stability, and a keen understanding of both human and institutional behavior are vital to long-term investment success – My hero, Warren Edward Buffett
"Science is correct; even if you don't believe it" - Neil deGrasse Tyson
|
|
|
09-18-2018, 12:10 PM
|
#25
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,738
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cratos
I made the following statement in post #11 of this thread: “They were all made before and after each race each day; in my post (#4 of this thread) explains the science in a formula.” And again I confirmed in post #20 with the following: “I will respond to you in this way: weight itself is useless, but when converted to mass it becomes one of the most powerful metrics in the calculation of the predictive outcome of a horserace due to the many different performance metrics that can produce of the horse’s historical race performances and its future performance(s).”
This was a simplistic way of stating how to use weight (converted to mass) in the handicapping of horseracing without going into ODE of calculus and the rigors of applied physics.
|
So you use the before-race weight as reported as measured on a scale, then estimate the post-race using your formula, and then use the differential to assess the horse in his next race?
|
|
|
09-18-2018, 12:23 PM
|
#26
|
@TimeformUSfigs
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,830
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by elhelmete
So you use the before-race weight as reported as measured on a scale, then estimate the post-race using your formula, and then use the differential to assess the horse in his next race?
|
Can't be that since very few places actually give you the reported weight before the race.
|
|
|
09-18-2018, 12:47 PM
|
#27
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2004
Location: The Big Apple
Posts: 4,252
|
No, CJ's response is correct
Remember the basic physics equation for motion: Force = Mass * Acceleration.
Then (Force/Acceleration)*9.81 = weight
In every horse's PP's or race result chart listed by either Equibase or DRF the variables for determining force and acceleration is always there.
__________________
Independent thinking, emotional stability, and a keen understanding of both human and institutional behavior are vital to long-term investment success – My hero, Warren Edward Buffett
"Science is correct; even if you don't believe it" - Neil deGrasse Tyson
|
|
|
09-20-2018, 12:54 PM
|
#28
|
Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 9,893
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cratos
No, CJ's response is correct
Remember the basic physics equation for motion: Force = Mass * Acceleration.
Then (Force/Acceleration)*9.81 = weight
In every horse's PP's or race result chart listed by either Equibase or DRF the variables for determining force and acceleration is always there.
|
This is interesting. Would you please post an example from Remington Park - turn theory into reality for us (as the track provides weights)? Thanks.
|
|
|
09-20-2018, 12:59 PM
|
#29
|
Registered User
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 1,738
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by Saratoga_Mike
This is interesting. Would you please post an example from Remington Park - turn theory into reality for us (as the track provides weights)? Thanks.
|
Why use weights as per a scale when the ultra-accurate and finely detailed DRF charts/PPs can be used to estimate?
|
|
|
09-20-2018, 02:30 PM
|
#30
|
Veteran
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 9,893
|
Quote:
Originally Posted by elhelmete
Why use weights as per a scale when the ultra-accurate and finely detailed DRF charts/PPs can be used to estimate?
|
I certainly appreciate your skepticism, but let's give him a chance to prove out his method with a real-world example.
|
|
|
|
|
Posting Rules
|
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts
HTML code is Off
|
|
|
|
|