Does Accelerate now win HOY over Justify?

[cj]

None of these races are "prep" races in my opinion. If anything, you could say they are "elimination" races as those that don't run well aren't going to the BC for the most part. But prep races...no way.

[ultracapper]

I haven't posted in 10 pages, but I still find myself reading every post in this thread.

Please mommy, make the spinning stop.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by dilanesp

Andy, I know you dislike what the BC has done, but it is undeniable that a lot of formerly important races are now just BC preps.

That's just true. Sorry.

What I would say is that years ago many top horses were at or close to their peak for the Grade 1 races in NY, CA, and FL early in the year. Some that came out very early in the year and had spectacular first halves would then tail off late in the year or need a freshening by mid year.

Now, part of the thinking is remaining fresh for the BC because the purses, Eclipse Awards, and potential increase in breeding value are all so significant.

As a result, more top horses will skip some Grade 1 races for greater spacing and others may not be fully cranked in the race before the BC.

They aren't exactly "preps", but the quality has diminished significantly. That's undeniable.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Spalding No!

If Sadler had followed through with his overtures about sending Accelerate to the Whitney (when stablemate and "Worst Favorite of the Year" Catalina Cruiser came on the scene at Del Mar) and if Accelerate was able to handle a streaking Diversify perhaps he could have tipped the scales.

Of course, then he wouldn't have been able to run for less money at Del Mar and emulate Lava Man by winning 4 races in CA against the same batch of winless-on-the-year horses. So I can see the agonizing quandary Sadler faced...

I think this was probably an example of what I was talking about in my previous post. He was probably trying to avoid a tougher race so he'd improve his chances of having a fresh horse for the Classic.

What's the upside to shipping, facing a tougher field, and perhaps getting into a real dog fight when the actual long term goal is a few races down the line?

If you eventually show up for the Classic, you're clearly not scared or ducking anyone. You are just trying to get there at your peak and not a little over the top (which some might argue happened anyway and could have been worse had he gone to Saratoga).

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by cj

None of these races are "prep" races in my opinion. If anything, you could say they are "elimination" races as those that don't run well aren't going to the BC for the most part. But prep races...no way.

They're only prep races in the sense that in the old days you'd prep in Fla, NY, CA, KY and then "come together" for the big race everyone was targeting. So people trying to fit racing in 2019 into the old ways of classifying things could see it that way, since the Breeders Cup is what finally brings (most) active top horses together. However, the idea that million-dollar races are preps the people involved don't care about winning is obviously wrong.

[NY BRED]

any owner or trainer would love to to be known as having a
thoroughbred, under their thumb, to have won the Kentucky Derby.

Winning the Triple Crown? Perhaps this formerly elusive distinction
now appears easy due to two consecutive winners, and therefore
the win of Accelerate in the Classic makes him HOY ,may
create some competition.

Frankly, some voters may be voting against Bob Baffert who is winning
just about any major race in the United States.

That said, winning the Triple Crown , at three different tracks, surfaces
and/or configurations within a condensed time frame is a difficult
task facing, the horse/trainer, and Jockey.


I will leave the topic of speed and pace figures to other merbers
of this forum;only remaining thought is HOY could be debated
if the Belmont was one by any other horse than Justify.

Come to think of this debate, should the Belmont owner
be Justified for this honor?

[ultracapper]

Originally Posted by NY BRED

any owner or trainer would love to to be known as having a
thoroughbred, under their thumb, to have won the Kentucky Derby.

Winning the Triple Crown? Perhaps this formerly elusive distinction
now appears easy due to two consecutive winners, and therefore
the win of Accelerate in the Classic makes him HOY ,may
create some competition.

Frankly, some voters may be voting against Bob Baffert who is winning
just about any major race in the United States.

That said, winning the Triple Crown , at three different tracks, surfaces
and/or configurations within a condensed time frame is a difficult
task facing, the horse/trainer, and Jockey.


I will leave the topic of speed and pace figures to other merbers
of this forum;only remaining thought is HOY could be debated
if the Belmont was one by any other horse than Justify.

Come to think of this debate, should the Belmont owner
be Justified for this honor?

There were actually a couple years between the two Bafferts. Bid would have made it 3 in a row at the end of the 70's. That's when every one would have started saying it was cheap, not knowing that it would be another 36 years for it to happen again.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by castaway01

They're only prep races in the sense that in the old days you'd prep in Fla, NY, CA, KY and then "come together" for the big race everyone was targeting. So people trying to fit racing in 2019 into the old ways of classifying things could see it that way, since the Breeders Cup is what finally brings (most) active top horses together. However, the idea that million-dollar races are preps the people involved don't care about winning is obviously wrong.

I never said nobody cares about winning them. People care about winning the Santa Anita Derby, after all.

I said that the structure of modern racing deemphasizes the importance of a lot of races by making them into stepping stones for the BC. And thus you can't pretend races like the Whitney and JCGC are as important as they once were as championship deciders that top horses need to show up for.

[Buckeye]

Originally Posted by Buckeye

If it makes you feel any better dilanesp, Accelerate wins best older horse and Justify wins HOY.

Best 3 year old ever (in my opinion) was Secretariat.

Best older horse I ever saw run in person was Spectacular Bid.

None of which means anything in the grand scheme of things.

Best filly I ever saw run in person was Ruffian in 1975, unfortunately she didn't finish that race.

[cj]

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by cj

Well done.

[jimmyb]

Originally Posted by cj

I like it Craig!

[ultracapper]

OK, so he can ride a little. But as a handicapper, God, I hate Mike Smith.

[Tom]

Andy Beyer will be on ATR tomorrow - Steve teased that he will make the case for why Justify should NOT be HOY.

[dilanesp]

Originally Posted by Tom

Andy Beyer will be on ATR tomorrow - Steve teased that he will make the case for why Justify should NOT be HOY.

Wish he still had his column.

I know when American Pharaoh won he thought it very important that he came back and win the BC Classic, so he is consistent.