Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 02-13-2012, 05:59 PM   #1
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Rich Perloff...really?

I usually like him, but he says that field size has no effect on the percentage of wagering favorites. He still thinks the favorite wins 1/3 of the time. He can't be this dumb, right?
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-13-2012, 06:14 PM   #2
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,388
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
I usually like him, but he says that field size has no effect on the percentage of wagering favorites. He still thinks the favorite wins 1/3 of the time. He can't be this dumb, right?
I used to think that the escalating winning percentage of the favorites was attributed to the shrinking field sizes too...but Dave Schwartz straightened me out.

As it turns out, the fields, on average, have not shrunk as much as one would think.

Dave thinks that the "whales" have more to do with it...and I'm beginning to think that he is right.
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-13-2012, 06:18 PM   #3
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I used to think that the escalating winning percentage of the favorites was attributed to the shrinking field sizes too...but Dave Schwartz straightened me out.

As it turns out, the fields, on average, have not shrunk as much as one would think.

Dave thinks that the "whales" have more to do with it...and I'm beginning to think that he is right.
I'm not saying it is the only factor, but it is a factor. And we both know favorites don't win at "only" 33% these days.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-13-2012, 06:40 PM   #4
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
I'll keep this pretty simple:

All favorites, the last nearly 250,000 races in my database (mid 2007), 36.06%

Field Size < 7, favorites win 42.20%
Field Size > 7 and < 10, favorites win 36.11%
Field Size > 10, 31.37%
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-13-2012, 06:52 PM   #5
cj
@TimeformUSfigs
 
cj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2002
Location: Moore, OK
Posts: 46,816
Just to be clear Gus, I wasn't relating the field size as shrinking. I'm just saying field size is a big factor in the percentage of winning favorites.

Average field size:

2007, 8.70
2008, 8.68
2009, 8.73
2010, 8.68
2011, 8.53
2012, 8.70

It doesn't even appear to be shrinking, but certainly is a big variable in favorite success.

I'll send this to him tomorrow. He went off air right after he made his statements.
cj is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-13-2012, 07:43 PM   #6
big frank
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 386
what do you expect from know it all perloff. he is always condescending. is anyone else sick of him reading the race conditions ? i know class is important but it doesn't seem to do him any good. how many times have we heard him say figures are not important ? he is in the same league as bayless from espn. i can't listen to both these guys
big frank is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-13-2012, 08:07 PM   #7
Shelby
Registered User
 
Shelby's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Kansas
Posts: 1,833
I learn from Rich each and every day that he's on TVG. I tune in on Mondays and Tuesdays specifically just to listen to him. I don't bet, I just learn.
Shelby is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-13-2012, 08:24 PM   #8
johnhannibalsmith
Registered User
 
johnhannibalsmith's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 12,402
Compared to that fellow before and after him, it's like listening to Pavarotti versus Bobcat Goldthwait.
__________________
"You make me feel like I am fun again."

-Robert James Smith, 1989
johnhannibalsmith is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-13-2012, 08:40 PM   #9
thaskalos
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2006
Posts: 28,388
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
Just to be clear Gus, I wasn't relating the field size as shrinking. I'm just saying field size is a big factor in the percentage of winning favorites.

Average field size:

2007, 8.70
2008, 8.68
2009, 8.73
2010, 8.68
2011, 8.53
2012, 8.70

It doesn't even appear to be shrinking, but certainly is a big variable in favorite success.

I'll send this to him tomorrow. He went off air right after he made his statements.
You are right, of course, and that should be obvious to everyone...Perloff included.

The shorter the field...the higher the likelihood of the favorite winning.

But I am still stunned by the average field sizes over the last six years...

I would have never guessed...
thaskalos is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-13-2012, 08:54 PM   #10
big frank
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Posts: 386
Quote:
Originally Posted by Shelby
I learn from Rich each and every day that he's on TVG. I tune in on Mondays and Tuesdays specifically just to listen to him. I don't bet, I just learn.
with all due respect , what the heck do you learn from ?
big frank is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-13-2012, 08:59 PM   #11
Tee
Registered User
 
Tee's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2001
Posts: 16,817
I'm kinda glad I don't have TVG anymore.
__________________
When you have to make a choice and don't make it, that is in itself a choice.
Tee is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-13-2012, 09:25 PM   #12
HoofedInTheChest
Registered User
 
HoofedInTheChest's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2011
Location: Woodbine
Posts: 2,657
Thanks for the stats cj, that's good to know.
HoofedInTheChest is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-13-2012, 09:40 PM   #13
senortout
Registered User
 
senortout's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 1,128
If you are not wagering, you could at least

Quote:
Originally Posted by Shelby
I learn from Rich each and every day that he's on TVG. I tune in on Mondays and Tuesdays specifically just to listen to him. I don't bet, I just learn.
Write down the names of the horses he seems to favor, and heavily favor, or 'leaning towards favoring' some such categories and see how well he is actually doing!

(myself, I have no idea, since I don't listen to so-called experts)

report back!
senortout is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-13-2012, 09:54 PM   #14
AndyC
Registered User
 
Join Date: Dec 2011
Posts: 4,274
Quote:
Originally Posted by cj
I'll keep this pretty simple:

All favorites, the last nearly 250,000 races in my database (mid 2007), 36.06%

Field Size < 7, favorites win 42.20%
Field Size > 7 and < 10, favorites win 36.11%
Field Size > 10, 31.37%
Does your database show whether favorites are more likely to be underplayed or overplayed due to field size?
AndyC is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 02-13-2012, 10:05 PM   #15
davew
Registered User
 
Join Date: May 2011
Posts: 22,451
what exactly did he say?

every race has a wagering favorite 100% of the time.
davew is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 10:49 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.