Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Handicapping Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 04-13-2019, 01:16 PM   #1
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,819
Saturday Playalong, Ark Derby Day

Lots of really good races today - most not in NY or California.
OP card looks outstanding. Muddy or sloopy seems certain - stats to follow.

Kee R1 -no bet, and not to redbord, but what the heck were they looking at to make the the favorite??? I saw nothing at all to like. Exacta comes back the two last race best Beyers, and off of poly tracks to boot.

Aqu R1

I like

Could jump in to the 90s for Beyers off a prep last time. Lightly raced, good fig progression last year.

92-94 looks to be his ceiling, but that is enough in this race.

likely favorite, never been a mile, why take low odds
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?

Last edited by Tom; 04-13-2019 at 01:19 PM.
Tom is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-13-2019, 02:24 PM   #2
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,819
OP R2 - bumper cars in the stretch. My got the worst of it.

>>>>>I get moved up on a double DQ!

If weren't for Asmussen today, the card would have half the horses it does!

OP R3

Very interesting race for trainer moves. More recent claims in this one that State Farm sees after a freezing rain storm!

Won over in the slop at this track previously. Fits the conditions tightly.

Similar to the

Moves up off a good race first time for Asmussen, Closely fits conditions.

Good race.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-13-2019, 02:44 PM   #3
AxleLode
Registered User
 
AxleLode's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Grove,OK
Posts: 364
Oaklawn Park

Race3)win
over/under , ex
AxleLode is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-13-2019, 02:51 PM   #4
AxleLode
Registered User
 
AxleLode's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Grove,OK
Posts: 364
Quote:
Originally Posted by AxleLode View Post
Oaklawn Park

Race3)win
over/under , ex
Results
---
AxleLode is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-13-2019, 03:03 PM   #5
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,819
Aqu R4
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-13-2019, 03:10 PM   #6
GaryG
Unreconstructed
 
GaryG's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Appalachia
Posts: 6,645
Tom, betting COUNTRY HOUSE in the Ark Derby. Now, retiring to the bar. Good luck!
__________________
Deo Vindice
GaryG is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-13-2019, 03:10 PM   #7
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,819
Well, I deserve it - the AQU card stinks big time.

I shouldn't even be looking at it.

OP R4

Short field with one outstanding lone speed.
Can't see anyone catching the

Ice Cold chalkzacta
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?

Last edited by Tom; 04-13-2019 at 03:15 PM.
Tom is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-13-2019, 03:13 PM   #8
AxleLode
Registered User
 
AxleLode's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Grove,OK
Posts: 364
Kee race5)win/pl
AxleLode is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-13-2019, 03:27 PM   #9
AxleLode
Registered User
 
AxleLode's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Grove,OK
Posts: 364
Quote:
Originally Posted by AxleLode View Post
Kee race5)win/pl
Ran 3rd
AxleLode is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-13-2019, 03:30 PM   #10
Tom
The Voice of Reason!
 
Tom's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Canandaigua, New york
Posts: 112,819
Here are some wet track stats for OP

6.0 Furlongs Sloppy Track - 466 races

Pace contention point (PCP) 80% of winnres

1st call - 4.5 lengths
2nd call - 3.25 lengths

55% of the races won by horses withing 2 lengths at the 1st call
19% won by horses 5 or more behind at 1st call

PP1 22% winners
PP2 16%
PP3 15%

PP 1-4 66% of all winners


Whitmore made me earn that zacta!~
Hey, I would rather see the jock go at it like Saez than grab and rate like you see every day at NYRA.
__________________
Who does the Racing Form Detective like in this one?
Tom is online now   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-13-2019, 03:33 PM   #11
098poi
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 5,594
I may miss this race so I'll post now for the Lexington


Keeneland R9


$2 Ex / , ,
098poi is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-13-2019, 03:38 PM   #12
AxleLode
Registered User
 
AxleLode's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Grove,OK
Posts: 364
Kee race6)win/pl

OP race5)win
AxleLode is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-13-2019, 03:44 PM   #13
tophatmert
Registered User
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Posts: 636
kee 6th exbox with exbox w/p.tris with those 4 and the
tophatmert is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-13-2019, 03:44 PM   #14
098poi
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Posts: 5,594
Quote:
Originally Posted by 098poi View Post
I may miss this race so I'll post now for the Lexington


Keeneland R9


$2 Ex / , ,



Changing


$2 Ex / , ,
098poi is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 04-13-2019, 03:48 PM   #15
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 23,558
OAKLAWN r5

Hey Tom , hey All GOOD LUCK today let's get something rolling

= solid chalk

= interesting mid-range price. Paid $90k for her auction. Moquett stinks FTS, but this is a late 3yo debut meaning she may have overcome an issue and has been working a while. Saez up.

= replay says he can get up for 4th or even 3rd without threatening. Footnotes incorrectly uses the negative term 'falter'. I like that.

Let me see if the looks any good on track in the post parade.

asmussen taking money on his hombred project as well

be back with a bet ,,
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply





Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
Wh deserves to be the favorite? (last 4 figures)
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 08:11 PM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2023 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.