Birthday Angle

[Half Smoke]

during last year's Derby a poster on another forum mentioned that he was using an angle I had never before thought of or considered.

he was considering the horse's birthday as being a factor in that the horses born earlier in the year would be closer to maturity

I don't think I would use that in capping the Derby but I think it might be potentially useful with first time starters in Maiden Specials.


Comments?

[Dahossdaboss]

In theory, with early season 2 year old racing it would make some sense. I’d be interested in seeing some data on it before firing away though.

[Tom]

I would not base a bet on it, but i would consider it if my horse has much youngers and low odds. I've been looking at foal dates for the last few years and noticed, strictly observational, that some horse I had expected good runs out of did not deliver. Still way too early to say.

I don't have foal date in my db, so I can't check it.

[castaway01]

I think this would largely be self-correcting. Most horses aren't going to race until they're ready, and "older" horses will be ready earlier in the year, but they'll be facing other horses born around the same time. If there's a bunch of firsters and one is a few months older than the others, I'd say there's just as good a chance that the older horse had injuries or was slow developing and/or the younger horses are precocious as that the older horse had a strength age based on age.

[Tom]

Slow developing for the Derby?

[theBozyn]

I use in two year old races early in the year. Horses born in January or February get preference over the others in fields of all first time starters. It works as good as anything.