*Handicapping Methods-Spot Play Testing-Software Etc

[NorCalGreg]

Okay my "1Mile+" spot play had 1 winner in 16 tries. Not Good.

I did win my head-to-head contest @ Horse Tourneys--my opponent had a rough day. I hit 3 small winners and a $6.00 place horse (at WB) for the lucky win.

Was looking through pp's tonight...Maidens dropping into Md Claimers, in particular. For kicks I came up with these--we'll see what happens.

1st time dropping
MDN TO MDN-CLAIMER
W/POS RIDER SWITCH

*SAR
4TH KEMBA 10-1 ---gutierrez to rosario
10TH TESORINA 5-1 ---baze to ortiz
10TH MORALITY CLAUSE 15-1 ---davis to franco

*BTP
3RD MADS 5-1 ---saez to ouzts
3RD SNAPY TWELVES 8-1 --court to court

*DM
2ND QUIET SANCTUARY 15-1 --franko-angeles to cedillo
3RD AWESOME SCORE 5-1 --garcia to hernandez
6TH FOXBOROUGH 5-1 --velez to hernandez
6TH EXHALTING 5-1 --espinosa to cedillo

[horseplayer]

NICE HITS THERE:

KEMBA $7.20 , MADS $7.20 , AWESOME SCORE $9.20

[NorCalGreg]

--Actually this is Mark Cramer's Maiden Spot Play. I've seen it before...but happened to be reading an article by Dick Mitchell, who had this to say:

"Mark Cramer uncovered a profitable subset of overlay mutuels. When a drop in class from maiden special weight to maiden claiming is accompanied by a positive rider change to a leading jockey, head to the windows. It's truly a dynamite sign of excellent trainer intent and a hot angle on its own."

This factor alone has made a flat-bet profit for the past two decades. It even works in the open claiming divisions. The class drop/jockey switch angle, especially in combination with improving form as measured by ability times or new found early speed, signals a horse on the verge of breaking its maiden."

*I added a 5-1 ML minimum to qualify

The article also contains Cramer's 2nd-time starter spot play.

https://www.cynthiapublishing.com/Mi...dm20000814.htm

[Tor Ekman]

Greg - Just ordered Exotic Bets to give it a spin

[NorCalGreg]

Originally Posted by Tor Ekman

Greg - Just ordered Exotic Bets to give it a spin

Just sent the link to your email, Phil. I think you'll enjoy it--thank you!

-NCG

[Tor Ekman]

Got it, thanks. Just downloaded and will fiddle around with it at Del Mar

[Tor Ekman]

Hey Greg - Just started fiddling around with it and it's already paid for itself, in 5th race at DMR I boxed the V-Power selections 1-4-5 for $1, came in 1-4, $1 exacta paid $50.

Gonna take a shot at late pick-4.

[NorCalGreg]

Early/Late double have potential here, along with maybe a couple pick-3's.

Good luck

-NCG

[Tor Ekman]

Huge hit in 5th race at Presque Isle, Serve Revenge Cold, Greg's #1 Power horse 8-1 ML went off at 43-1, paid $88.60 . . . $29.80 . . . $12.80

[NorCalGreg]

--Well damn....thought I was gonna get skunked there @ Presque today. Only had two Top Platinum Power winners--but one horse in the 5th, SERVE REVENGE COLD paid a sweet $88.60. Bris Prime Power has a higher win %, but Platinum Power has a higher ROI. You'll never see a Top Bris Prime Power horse pay anywhere near $88.

I didn't go back and check--but I believe appx 8 of the last ten times I've posted the Top Power picks--they have shown a flat-bet profit just blindly betting 'em all. (Anyone that has time is welcome to go check that)

[NorCalGreg]

I must have missed your post, Phil--or we posted simultaneously.

**Had my eye on this horse awhile...

YACHT (#2, 12/1 ML) is entered Thistledown on Wednesday, August 12th, 2020 in Race 8.


...and here is another Mark Cramer- Maiden 1st time claimer\Pos Rider Switch @ Sar

10th Race MIA BEA STAR 8-1 -cancel to j ortiz

[NorCalGreg]

Swear I thought I posted this a couple hours ago...I must have forgotten to hit "submit"
See if we can continue the daily profit Platinum Power streak

[horseplayer]

# 59.20

[mikesal57]

Originally Posted by horseplayer

# 59.20

Awesome!!

the best part is hitting that early ...

now you know your going to be up the rest of the plays

[NorCalGreg]

A Platinum user asked in email--what's the best way to show a profit? I get asked this often. I'm positive the way to profit in this game is to specialize in certain tracks--and distances.

I mentioned earlier I was studying 1mile races...looking for a horse with an early speed advantage. If you can find one at 8 or 10 to 1 ML, you may have a good chance to cash a ticket. Especially if this particular horse is near the top power for the race.

Another way to hit some of the biggest payoffs...is to click on "Top-2 Power" and look for horses 8-1ML, or better. Personally I use 10-1 as a minimum, if there are 2 or 3 at 10-1 or higher.

Using this method--the main drawback (as with all longshots), is the very real chance of an extended losing streak. If you can psychologically deal with that...and you've wagered carefully--you have a shot. I'm not talking about half-dozen races losing streak-those are common-I mean 20-30 race streaks. It's easy to lose faith in your methods when you've done nothing but lose for a couple weeks.

There was only 1 play @ DelMar (didn't win), but the track Bob (horseplayer) mentioned earlier-Arlington-had a good day. I'll post it here. The only other suggestion I can give, is keep a record of tracks that seem to win more often, and play those.

-NCG