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Originally Posted by Spalding No!
Rather than saying they were overrated Derby winners in those years, I would characterize them as "vulnerable" Derby winners...
...Animal Kingdom was another one-run closer at a disadvantage at Pimlico. He also was relatively inexperienced on a dirt surface and was essentially "lucky" to even find his way into the Kentucky Derby (he was an second-string entry/afterthought for his Derby-qualifying run in the Jim Beam) and had a single main track workout for the Derby. Curiously, he only started on dirt one more time in his career (his disastrous Belmont).
If any of this holds water, then the question becomes: Is Justify a vulnerable Derby winner?
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Yes, not only is there a question of Justify's condition in the minds of many fans, but also because he will be facing a predominantly new cast of fresh horses.
Regarding AK, his story is one of thousands that many racing fans find fascinating. As you stated, he wasn't the barn's 1st choice to run in the Derby, but Toby's Corner injured his leg after winning the Wood, so AK's Spiral win was sufficient to earn him a gate.
The 20/1 ML was deserved, as AK had raced on turf and AW, but never on dirt. He was bred for the grass; his sire Leroidesanimaux, and damsire Acatenango were turf champions, and he was 4X4 to Lyphard. However, he may have tipped his hand with a 1:13.17 CD work a week before the Derby.
Robby Albarado had worked him that day, and was scheduled to have the mount in the Derby, but it was not to be. Three days before the Derby Robby was thrown from a horse and kicked in the face, breaking his nose. Although Robby said that he was ready to ride, Team Valor manager Barry Irwin decided to find another rider. (An irate Robby proved he was right by winning a $345,600 stakes race on the Derby undercard.)
John Velazquez had a Derby mount the three previous years, only to have each horse withdrawn. This year fate struck again, as Uncle Mo had a stomach problem, and was withdrawn, leaving J.V once again without a horse to ride in the Derby. Enter Barry Irwin and J.V. picks up the mount on AK the day before the Derby. Previously 0/12, J.V. is victorious with AK the following afternoon.
Two weeks later in the Preakness, AK broke slowly and was 14 lengths back at the half-mile pole, but closed steadily to miss by a half length. As you said, his Belmont was disastrous, when he was bumped, stumbled, and J.V. lost the left iron until they reached the turn.
While he never raced on dirt again, his next five races were an ALW win, two seconds in Gr. I's, and a win in the Dubai World Cup before he retired. He stands at Darley (America) along with Nyquist, Bernardini, Frosted, Street Sense, Hard Spun, and Medaglia d'Oro, and already has a Gr. II winner (Untamed Domain) from his first crop.
Isn't this sport great?
