Quote:
Originally Posted by GMB@BP
I think in every one of those context the Derby win was overrated, or a circumstance that helped the case.
|
Rather than saying they were overrated Derby winners in those years, I would characterize them as "vulnerable" Derby winners--which would allow for the inclusion of Barbaro, whose Derby win was far from overrated.
Quote:
|
Barbaro broke down, so that race is hard to even gauge .
|
Barbaro was vulnerable because it was highly likely he had soundness issues going into the race (based on the fact that he was injured only a few strides out of the gate). That's not something a handicapper should hope for or count on, but it's an inherent risk--perhaps more so for a horse coming off 2 weeks rest and a testing Derby trail campaign than a lightly raced colt.
At any rate, Bernardini registered a higher Beyer figure in the Preakness than Barbaro did in the Derby, so there is some evidence the result was not a foregone conclusion had Barbaro been in good shape.
Quote:
|
Always Dreaming obviously relished the off going and was never as good a horse as that race suggested.
|
Always Dreaming, up until the Preakness, seemed to be a solid horse. He did fine on a fast track in the Florida Derby and did not appear to need an off-track to move up his performance.
So how was he vulnerable? Simple. Todd Pletcher. Pletcher's record in the Derby is horrendous, but what's even more brutal is the record of his 2 winners of the race (albeit a very tiny sample). Both Always Dreaming and Super Saver went from being consistent horses to outright inferior duds after winning the Derby. Suddenly, neither horse could hit the board in a race of consequence.
In short, as could be gleaned from the 2-for-60+ Derby record, Pletcher squeezes his horses to the last drop on Derby day.
Quote:
|
Orb did have a dream setup, the pace was insane in that Derby and he was not chasing a Justify setting it. His connections also helped inflate the price.
|
Orb was a stone one-run closer, a decided disadvantage in the Preakness. He was also a clear post-Derby bust after tearing through the Derby trail. To a lesser degree, the sloppy track may have helped him or hindered Derby also-rans.
Quote:
|
Curlin, at 7/2, against a 2 year old champion in Street Sense trained by a master horseman, shows just how talented people though of him. In most cases you should have gotten better than 7/2.
|
Nevertheless, the odds were a huge reversal from the Derby, where both he and Street Sense were roughly 5-1 co-favorites. In the Preakness, Street Sense was 7-5 or thereabouts.
Street Sense was vulnerable because he was a bit of a hanger (watch him drift in and swap back to his left lead after getting clear in the Derby as well as his subsequent starts later in the year).
However, more importantly, it wasn't so much that Street Sense was vulnerable as it was that Curlin was able to exhibit his true abilities at Pimlico. Considering his rushed campaign to make the Derby, the large field, his relative inexperience, and his lack of (or the failure of his jock to use) positioning speed, one had every right to expect a move up in the Preakness.
Quote:
|
I dont recall the Shackelford race other than I dont think Animal Kingdom race was that highly regarded.
|
Animal Kingdom was another one-run closer at a disadvantage at Pimlico. He also was relatively inexperienced on a dirt surface and was essentially "lucky" to even find his way into the Kentucky Derby (he was an second-string entry/afterthought for his Derby-qualifying run in the Jim Beam) and had a single main track workout for the Derby. Curiously, he only started on dirt one more time in his career (his disastrous Belmont).
If any of this holds water, then the question becomes: Is Justify a vulnerable Derby winner?
I say "yes" for 2 reasons:
(1) his clear discomfort post-race, which may not preclude a start or even a victory, but nonetheless puts him at less than 100% (but at the same time will he need to be 100% against the field that ultimately lines up?)
(2) the sloppy going at Churchill clearly hindered the ability of the other horses to run their true race, somebody might reverse form. But will any of those actually show up (like Curlin) to show their true mettle? Doesn't look like it. I would say Good Magic, if he has an excuse, was a bit too close to the fast opening half 1/2 mile, but probably had no real problems with the slop.
