Why was this thread locked?

[raybo]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

I notice no one has provided any response that they came away with some handicapping value from the other thread which they are are willing to share.

Were you all sworn to secrecy?

Was it similar to a pinkie swear? Because those aren't binding agreements, unless you're in front of a jury of your peers who happens to be a bunch of EIGHT YEAR OLD GIRLS!!

I'm surprised TrifectaMike hasn't started a thread titled "I've got a secret". Only available to a limited few who agree to be sworn to secrecy and must hurry because the offer is only open for a limited time period.

Btw Barn32, I agree with you.

It got me to thinking, but was hoping some in that thread would eventually expound on their previous posts. I have nothing solid yet but some inklings of an idea, just not ready to put it on the forum yet.

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

One of the things I've been doing with speed figs from a horse's running lines is to assign each one a weight based on relevance and make a weighted average calculation. Based on large data samples, the fig from the most recent running deserves to be weighted higher than the fig from the second runnng line back, which in turn deserves to be weighted higher than the fig from third running line back, etc.

The following formula illustrates the calculation:

WtAvgOfFigs = ((Fig1 x Wt1) + (Fig2 x Wt2) +(Fig3 x Wt3)) / (Sum of the Wts)

Nothing shattering there. (But the resulting number does provide at least some indication of both basic ability and form for each horse in a given race.)

What I came away with after reading the aforementioned thread was an IDEA.

In the thread that was closed TrifectaMike and Magister Ludi suggested the the fig from the third running line back be tested as a possible basis for 'pattern' (which I took to mean form cycle.)

I took it upon myself to do some database research. I coded out a few of the possible cases (one case per possible pattern among the speed figs from the three most recent running lines) and began analyzing each possible case using a database.

My objective is to test whether or not the idea of adding a component for 'pattern' can provide an roi boost to the WtAvgOfFigs number I am already calculating.

So far, in early testing, the answer appears to be yes.



-jp

.

I'm still a little stumped about TM's scenario and ML's "cyclic" response (which I also took as meaning form cycle related). I don't know how large TM's sample was, but knowing what he has posted before, it was probably very large. So, my take is that, in the sample of races he used, the 3rd figure back was so close to the 1st, 2nd or 4th figure that the 3rd figure was insignificant to the predictive-ness of a future figure. In other words, it was already within the range of figs, and hardly ever was the high or the low. of course, I don't know what formula he was using regarding those 4 figures so I have no idea what affect a figure that falls within the spread would have on the projected figure.

However, I highly doubt that the 3rd figure had anything to do with form cycle at all, as might have been assumed by ML's "cyclic" response. It just "appears" to.

Hopefully ML will come on this thread and explain more fully?

[PaceAdvantage]

Wow, you get away from this place for a few days, and all hell breaks loose...

[DJofSD]

When the cats away ...

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Wow, you get away from this place for a few days, and all hell breaks loose...

Take all the time off that you need, PA. WE'LL mind the store...

[cj]

Looks like starting anew was probably the right call.

[dansan]

still room to make money in this business most of the handicappers are more worried about a locked thread than handicapping

[raybo]

Originally Posted by dansan

still room to make money in this business most of the handicappers are more worried about a locked thread than handicapping

That was uncalled for, and as far from the truth as you can get. The call for the thread to be reopened was a good call (and a thread that obviously falls under the umbrella of "handicapping"), whether anyone else thinks so or not. We would have saved all this time and arguing by simply unlocking it and letting it continue, with all the previous posts still in place, in the same thread, except the one that should have immediately been deleted and the poster warned.

Now, am I going to be warned and this post deleted, or not?

[Sapio]

Originally Posted by raybo

That was uncalled for, and as far from the truth as you can get. The call for the thread to be reopened was a good call (and a thread that obviously falls under the umbrella of "handicapping"), whether anyone else thinks so or not. We would have saved all this time and arguing by simply unlocking it and letting it continue, with all the previous posts still in place, in the same thread, except the one that should have immediately been deleted and the poster warned.

Now, am I going to be warned and this post deleted, or not?

Hi raybo,

There is an alternate thread with the same title.

Thomas Sapio

[raybo]

Originally Posted by Sapio

Hi raybo,

There is an alternate thread with the same title.

Thomas Sapio

Thanks Thomas! I'll look it up.

[whodoyoulike]

Originally Posted by PaceAdvantage

Wow, you get away from this place for a few days, and all hell breaks loose...

If this was directed towards me or my post(s), I've mellowed out the last few years since I've been practicing my once a month meditation routines.

My posts were made because I found it amusing that someone would require another to be sworn to secrecy before he would try to assist another with their problems. As if that act would make the assistance more valuable or useful. WTF!!

[cj]

Originally Posted by whodoyoulike

If this was directed towards me or my post(s), I've mellowed out the last few years since I've been practicing my once a month meditation routines.

My posts were made because I found it amusing that someone would require another to be sworn to secrecy before he would try to assist another with their problems. As if that act would make the assistance more valuable or useful. WTF!!

I doubt it was directed at anyone in particular, PA doesn't work that way. If he has a problem with an individual, they will know it.

[whodoyoulike]

Thanks, I wasn't certain.

[PaceAdvantage]

Yes, it was a general comment for the entire thread...whether or not it was directed towards you, I can not say, as I don't recall all the comments here and I'm too lazy to go back and reread this opus...

[DJofSD]

Hey, if the shoe fits, wear it.