Patriots vs. Saints: A Preview

[Teach]

“Are you going to have the veal parm or chicken parm?” my wife asked. My wife and I were visiting our favorite Italian restaurant. “I haven’t decided,” I replied.

Yes, I freely admit that being of sound mind (NB: I didn't say sound body) that it ain’t like deciding between chicken cacciatore and veal scallopini, or fettuccine Alfredo.

And that’s the way, analogously-speaking, is how I feel about the upcoming Week 5 matchup between the home-standing New England Patriots (1-3) and the visiting New Orleans Saints (2-2).

I'll begin my prognostication by saying, "I don’t see any discernible difference between these two struggling teams." It's kinda like "Tweedledee and Tweedledum."

Moreover, neither team scored a TD in their last game. Both teams are coming off losses. Both teams have lingering concerns. As for the Saints, it's the status of their QB, the former Raider, Derek Carr. As for the Patriots, it's their lack of offense and the the loss of two key players, Matthew Judon and Christian Gonzalez.

Last week, Week 4, The Patriots were shellacked by the Cowboys, 38-3; the Saints lost to the Buccaneers, 27-9 (although in the Saints' favors, the Bucs added-on 10 points in the final few "garbage-time" minutes).

Yes, the Patriots, as the song says, “It’s now or never,” "O Sole Mio." In fact when the the 2023 schedule was first announced, I thought New Orleans at home was a “W.” Not so fast. Don’t run to make a wager at your sports-book website. The Patriots as they have evolved as a football team are no sure thing to beat anyone in 2023. Tangentially, I'm still of the belief that the Pats will be lucky to win seven games.

Meanwhile the Saints, who started 2-0, have slipped 2-2. In my opinion, they're "no great shakes." The big question, when it comes to New Orleans, is the status of Carr who has an injured shoulder. I conjecture, "Is it going to be Jameis Winston?" If that be the case, that's "a horse of a different color." His presence would put me in a more Patriots state-of-mind

"O mores, o tempora..." Is Mac Jones regressing. I ask, "Are there temperament issues?" That wry smile when Bailey Zappe replaced him." Mac, you’re not at Bolles, anymore, nor, for that matter, are you in Tuscaloosa, you're not a "The Rounder Bar." You're in "the pros." You're under a magnifying glass. You're playing in "a goldfish bowl."

Anyway, “The Joker” did toss two INTs (there could have more) both by the Cowboys' Bland. Any repeat of that performance and the "boo-birds" will be out in force. As Shakespeare would have said in his plays, "Exeunt!"

At this juncture, I repeat, as cited in a previous post, in reference to the Dallas v. New England matchup, the Patriots must play a “flawless game.” There must be no fumbles, No interceptions, No penalties... In hindsight, When they did "fall apart" at AT &T, we saw the consequences. When the floodgates opened in "Big D," it was a tsunami.

Yet the Saints ain't no great shakes. They’re one of the weakest teams in putting points on the board. I believe they average about 15 points per game.

At first blush, this upcoming tilt would appear to be a defensive struggle. Will it come to what I refer to as football “trench warfare.” The importance of the kicking game as it relates to the field-position. A battle of putting 3-points on the board. I would give the edge in place-kicking to the Saints; they're are 11 for 11 in field goal tries.

At the juncture, you may be asking, "Have you made up your mind, that is about this Sunday's game at Gillette against the Saints?"

In further evaluation, I believe its going to be close, both in score and O/U. When it comes to the O/U, at least the last I saw, the number was: 40. Let me state my firm belief that I believe the two teams will combine to be close to that number.

In fact when it comes to wagering, I’m leaning powerfully in the direction of eschewing the over-under and concentrating on “the spread” or the "money-line." Yes I believe that the final score will be close to that currently-pegged over-under 40. In fact, the only thing that would cause to me to possibly get involved in an O/U would be a significant "move" in either direction.

Now, when it comes to "the spread," the Patriots are currently - 1.5. I am, as matters now stand, going to take the points and play “The Alpo,” i.e., New Orleans. What's gnawing at my brain is Patriots recent loss to the Cowboys. How quickly they folded "like a cheap suit." The poor play of Mac Jones. The injuries. The Patriots inability to score TD's (not one since the 2nd quarter of the Jets game). The porous offensive line. The lack of important "pieces" on defense. This list could go on and on. And, Bill Belichick, his assistants and his sons will have a most difficult time, metaphorically-speaking, in putting "Humpty-Dumpty back together again."

Finally, I’ll go out on the limb and proffer a final score: Saints 22; Patriots 18.

[Tor Ekman]

Much depends on whether it is Carr or Winston at QB for Saints.