Advice for a new handicapper

[Stick]

To be completely fair completebill also refers to him as Meadows in post 79. So if this is the criterion for determining how much someone knows I guess we can't believe either side.

[thaskalos]

I'll take Barry Meadow's word over TraderX's...any day.

[Cratos]

Originally Posted by cutchemist42

I wish I discovered the importance of pace a lot sooner.

Pace has always been there. From the beginning I was taught “pace make the race” and that advice has never left me.

However when speed figures became popular the analysis became reversed in that final time became the independent variable and pace became the dependent variable.

The pace of the race whether you are speaking of animals racings, humans racing, or machines is the most critical element for determining who or what will finish first.

[TraderX]

I apologize for calling the fellow an imbecile, it was wrong. Like most people I do not like being called a liar and a fraud, so I was obviously annoyed. To make it clear, I don't doubt there are other ways to make make profits betting on thoroughbreds. I am simply saying that I don't personally know of any other more reliabe consistent way to do so for regular income, and I had at one time or another looked at everything, or at least an awful lot.

I have no issue with Barry Meadow or anyone else. However, having lurked here for many years; I have seen Barry post as an authority on a very broad subject, and it is obvious to me at least, that he is incorrect in his sweeping statements on wagering. I am not the only one who feels this way, to be sure.

For the fellow that takes Barry's word over mine. I learned a long time ago, there is an ass for every seat, that's what makes the world go around. My betting progressions apply strictly to my method of grinding. I am sure Barry Meadow and yourself have your own method of money management, no problem.

[cashmachine]

Originally Posted by completebill

Please go back to Post #45. TraderX believes in these old, debunked rules, just as he believes in progressive betting. This is NOT a horseplayer to be taken seriously. In fact my money is on the label of "Loser".

I think you are too quick with your labels. I believe that understanding of mathematics and probability is NOT necessary condition to be a winning bettor. And as many of us know, it is not sufficient condition . Your system of believes is based (on the wrong) assumption that only computer geeks with super-fast computers can beat the game.

Some people can do it even without computer. Human brain is a wonder and it capable of amazing achievements. You seems to have a taste for "serious" research, so listen. Research showed that regular people "from the street" with only rudimentary knowledge of mathematics (like, high school) are capable to learn very fast underlying principles of languages generated by very complex grammars, and those people don't even know what it is a "grammar". Moreover, they couldn't formulate rules of the language (again, grammars were very complex) but were able to distinguish words that belong to language and that do not belong to language. And this is just one example of the amazing capabilities of human brain. Look up "subconscious learning" on google if you want to get more examples.

Returning to this guy. I do agree that progressive betting hurts him, so what. He is winning despite his fallacies, not because of them. Years of practice made him expert in this field; I seriously doubt he can formulate explicitly how he choses his winners and he may show some weakness in mathematics but nevertheless his intuition (read: condensed experience) still can overcome his shortcomings.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by cashmachine

I think you are too quick with your labels. I believe that understanding of mathematics and probability is NOT necessary condition to be a winning bettor. And as many of us know, it is not sufficient condition . Your system of believes is based (on the wrong) assumption that only computer geeks with super-fast computers can beat the game.

Some people can do it even without computer. Human brain is a wonder and it capable of amazing achievements. You seems to have a taste for "serious" research, so listen. Research showed that regular people "from the street" with only rudimentary knowledge of mathematics (like, high school) are capable to learn very fast underlying principles of languages generated by very complex grammars, and those people don't even know what it is a "grammar". Moreover, they couldn't formulate rules of the language (again, grammars were very complex) but were able to distinguish words that belong to language and that do not belong to language. And this is just one example of the amazing capabilities of human brain. Look up "subconscious learning" on google if you want to get more examples.

Returning to this guy. I do agree that progressive betting hurts him, so what. He is winning despite his fallacies, not because of them. Years of practice made him expert in this field; I seriously doubt he can formulate explicitly how he choses his winners and he may show some weakness in mathematics but nevertheless his intuition (read: condensed experience) still can overcome his shortcomings.

TraderX may indeed be a professional player...but he did come on too strong in his response to BettinBilly(#44).

You make a great living while only betting on two horses a day...you do no handicapping whatsoever...and you don't want to give us any details about your method of operation. FINE. But why go the extra yard and tell us that you know why all the other "pros" don't like to post on this site...and why present your method as the only sensible way of playing this game?

To his credit, he did mellow out in his latest post though...so we forgive him...

[biggestal99]

One only was to look at Bill Bentner as someone who developed a sophisted betting software to find ineffencies in the pm pools in hong Kong. Took out huge sums of money from the HK pools.

Same as the Arbs at betfair. Find the ineffencies in the wagering. Develop software to exploit them. Computer trading is rampant on betfair looking for even the slightest edge to exploit

Allan

[rupiefied]

I am also a new handicapper is it a good idea to bet across the board on my picks until I get better? Also should I use my top two horses in each race in Exactas and pick threes ext.

[BettinBilly]

Originally Posted by rupiefied

I am also a new handicapper is it a good idea to bet across the board on my picks until I get better? Also should I use my top two horses in each race in Exactas and pick threes ext.

Welcome to the Forum.

Very hard questions to answer without details and knowing what your style of handicapping and wagering is, what the Odds are, and other factors.
To answer your question about across the board picks in your case, you sound like you are hedging against a relatively unsure pick, so, generally no - unless the odds are favorable and pick are sound, I would not place the bet across the board. I don't know what your handicapping style is at present, but if you are generically picking a horse across the board and the odds are not favorable, typically the bet will not pay off at a respectable percentage to make the bet worthwhile. If you are not paying attention to all details including - Pace - Speed - Class - Form - and the odds, you can end up with a meager 10% return or even worse a loss on the bet, even if your horse wins/places/shows. You probably know this, but if you are brand new, I'm just pointing it out. Obviously if you have done your homework and find two top performers you feel strongly about, then yes, bet them for an Exacta. If you are hedging and the odds permit, box the Exacta. Same with a Pick 3. If you feel you have the winners, then play them.

Let's just play out a scenario of a potential error that perhaps a new Handicapper, we'll call him Mr. New, might make.
Mr. New picks a horse that is an obvious "Comebacker" (a horse returning from a Layoff) that a seasoned Handicapper would have spotted quickly. Mr. New missed this important fact, or, paid it little attention. The horse is in a claiming race above his Class (say a $16,000 claiming horse in a $25,000 claiming race). Mr. New glances at his speed figs and a few other items and thinks he has a winner and he really likes the odds. Unfortunately for him, the horse is not it that race to win, it's an exercise race for that horse and the trainer has placed him here on purpose to negate a win and avoid a claiming. This horse is basically "out for exercise" in this race. That's all. He's a sure loser. Unfortunately, Mr. New missed that point. The odds were great and he liked something else about the PP's - whatever he liked - so he chose him but missed the above fact. Mr. New bet him $50 across the board to hedge his bet, which only deepens the loss. The horse comes in 5th. Mr New lost. Hard lesson.

There is so much to learn and none of us can put it into one response on a Forum. I've been up to my neck in learning Handicapping for over 25 years and I'm still learning. Some here have 30, 40 or 50 years experience.

This thread is full of advice. Read and learn. Youtube can also be a great learning tool if you use it wisely. I've directed a few new Cappers to at least view Vegas Dave Consolazio's "How to Handicap Horses". At least this primer is fast paced and gives you some quick direction you can build on.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by rupiefied

I am also a new handicapper is it a good idea to bet across the board on my picks until I get better? Also should I use my top two horses in each race in Exactas and pick threes ext.

Across-the-board betting is not for the new handicapper...because it demands a high cash-percentage, otherwise the losses accumulate quickly. Nor would I recommend betting exclusively to win...because the long losing streaks associated with win-betting are likely to sap your enthusiasm for the game. In my opinion, win-betting is best left to the more experienced player...because it takes a certain degree of handicapping sophistication to narrow one's race opinion down to a single selection.

If I were you...I would get my feet wet in the game by experimenting with exacta betting. Exacta betting is an economical way to play the game...and it doesn't require the handicapping precision that win-betting demands. Don't believe the nonsense about having to be proficient at win-betting before you tackle the exotics...there is no truth to that myth. These two betting styles are completely different...and demand entirely different sets of skills. You can easily excel in one while failing at the other.

One thing about exacta-betting though. It's a lot more complicated than just boxing your top two picks in a race. The top two win-contenders are unlikely to finish one-two in the exacta...and they don't pay much when they do. Keep your bets at the minimum...and be creative. Your prime objective should be to try and visualize the race in your mind beforehand...and try to determine where your selections are likely to be at certain critical points in the race. There are certain race dynamics which often have a profound affect on the running of the race...and the second-place finisher is often determined by those race dynamics.

A good handicapping book would also be an excellent idea.

[rupiefied]

Thank you for the info. I don't really have a style yet I read the horseracing for dummies book already and I plan on reading the daily racing form ect. And I will be mainly playing emerald downs since it is close by. I just want to know what kinds of bets are good for a new guy to stick to. I am also starting out with a hundred dollar bankroll I figure that's an easy bankroll to lose if it ends up happening until I get better

[Robert Goren]

If I was starting out new, I would look at Hong Kong and try to figure it out. I suspect that Hong Kong will become very popular with American bettors in the next couple of years and a lot of new material will start to appear on their racing.

[barn32]

Originally Posted by rupiefied

I am also a new handicapper is it a good idea to bet across the board on my picks until I get better? Also should I use my top two horses in each race in Exactas and pick threes ext.

Betting across the board is a bad idea. In fact, you should almost always never bet to show. Why? Because most of the breakage comes out of the show pool.

My advice to a new player would be to look for overlays in the place pool. You'll cash more tickets. You won't make a lot of money, you'll make some, if you're any good, and you'll minimize the losing streaks while you're getting your feet wet and learning the game.

Two of the most intelligent (and best) handicappers I've ever known were "place only" bettors a large percentage of the time.

In fact (and I probably shouldn't be saying this),you can make profitable place only bets without even doing any handicapping. (Caveat: at least you used to be able to do this. With all of the late money coming in these days I honestly don't know if this is still a viable tactic.)

[raybo]

Originally Posted by rupiefied

I am also a new handicapper is it a good idea to bet across the board on my picks until I get better? Also should I use my top two horses in each race in Exactas and pick threes ext.

Well you've gotten a couple of suggestions, here's mine. NEVER bet across the board, at least until you have become proficient enough to figure out a way to win using that wagering method, and that may never happen. As to the "picks", this requires that you either become an expert win bettor, or good enough to spread your picks among the races involved. Keep in mind that you are betting into future races, and there might be scratches in some of those races which could screw you big time.

So, my advice? Study the game, and if you must bet, bet to win or win/place, until you gain some experience. The key to every bet is in being able to figure the "likely" winner, and then determine which wager type the race lends itself to. But, you need experience above all else, and if you are betting real money during the learning process it can get pretty expensive even betting the minimum. Yes, betting real money will teach you some things that you might not learn playing on paper, like discipline and patience and staying cool under pressure, but even people betting real money early in their careers often never develop those characteristics. So, save your self some money and learn the game first before jumping in with real money bets.

Take it or leave it, that's my advice.

[BettinBilly]

Rumpie:

Some good advice in the preceding posts from veterans of the sport.

Regarding reading, you apparently are reading the DRF and using it as a Handicapping source. Along these lines, I happen to like Brad Free's "Handicapping 101 - a Horse Racing Primer" for beginners and intermediate players. He outlines some decent strategy and he's referring to the DRF throughout, so it may match what you are used to looking at. There are a few other good books on Handicapping but I'll leave it up to my colleagues to point them out if they want. Reading about Handicapping can be a bit tedious and dry, which is why I pointed out the use of Online Video above. Brad Free even has a quick Tutorial on DRF.com where he walks you through some basic Handicapping strategy.

One other point I'd like to make, have fun with this sport. It should be enjoyable. At least I hope so.