Whales: A chink in the armor?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Who has the better deal?...The guy who's physically at the track, standing right next to "his teller", while watching in live time and being able to cancel real tickets, or the cyber-space software player, who might not be able to cancel his bet at all?.....And they're not one and the same player, one has a "physical ticket", the other is making cyber bets.

I'll assume that you are interested in serious debate...and I'll give you an honest answer:

If a large betting syndicate has committed millions and millions of dollars to their wagering enterprise, and they are employing a large workforce to run things efficiently...then, why wouldn't they have employees attending certain racetracks LIVE...so they could avail themselves of the "advantages" that live-play provides? Is it far-fetched to say that they might be employing the services of "physicality-handicapping" experts...or live bettors to take advantage of the after-the-race canceling option? Do we know that 100% of the Whale-betting takes place online...at the last second of the wagering period?

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

I'll assume that you are interested in serious debate...and I'll give you an honest answer:

If a betting syndicate has committed millions and millions of dollars to their wagering enterprise, and they are employing a large workforce to run things efficiently...then, why wouldn't they have employees attending certain racetracks LIVE...so they could avail themselves of the "advantages" that live-play provides? Is it far-fetched to say that they might be employing the services of "physicality-handicapping" experts...or live bettors to take advantage of the after-the-race canceling option? Do we know that 100% of the Whale-betting takes place online...at the last second of the wagering period?

My point is the whole enterprise on both sides is pure manipulation by both types of players, while track honchos turn a blind eye to the whole masquerade for the sake of handle, at guess who's expense?

The subject of Whales was commented by me in an earlier post #44, which read:

"Except for the few that are legit, let the Whale's dead carcasses wash ashore, wherever there location in the world may be.....For those that remain, launder that money as fast as you can through the betting pools, as the Sharks are already circling you too, your demise is at hand."

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

My point is the whole enterprise on both sides is pure manipulation by both types of players, while track honchos turn a blind eye to the whole masquerade for the sake of handle, at guess who's expense?

The subject of Whales was commented by me in an earlier post #44, which read:

"Except for the few that are legit, let the Whale's dead carcasses wash ashore, wherever there location in the world may be.....For those that remain, launder that money as fast as you can through the betting pools, as the Sharks are already circling you too, your demise is at hand."

Who are these "Sharks"?

[ReplayRandall]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Who are these "Sharks"?

Ask Dave...didn't he mention something about the "Shark" awhile back?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by ReplayRandall

Ask Dave...didn't he mention something about the "Shark" awhile back?

I don't recall...

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Seabiscuit@AR

Good question Thaskalos re why do the biggest whale syndicates pay the crazy cost for the best and fastest tote updates

The answer is obvious. It is a big advantage to have last crack at the tote board

Bets made by other players contain information. The biggest whale syndicate gets to see everyone else's bets before they place their bet. They then have the chance to factor in this information before they make their own bets. It gives them a chance to catch those late bets made by stable insiders and then bet in response

So the stable insider places a large bet with seconds to go. The big whale syndicate has a chance to see this and follow the money if they think that is the right play to make. The average player only sees this betting action halfway through the race = late odd changes that everyone has been complaining about recently

This is simply not how it works.

That's where I get confused. If there isn't any real advantage...then why do these syndicates play pay [sic] the "crazy cost" that you said these quick updates carry?

It isn't a big advantage. What it is, is more reliable and easier to use.

Also, depending upon which feed they are getting, it may contain things like jockey changes, missing workouts, corrected meds and equipment, surface changes, shoe, info, etc. All information which is available to the public but takes work to assemble.

[JerryBoyle]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

This is simply not how it works.




It isn't a big advantage. What it is, is more reliable and easier to use.

Also, depending upon which feed they are getting, it may contain things like jockey changes, missing workouts, corrected meds and equipment, surface changes, shoe, info, etc. All information which is available to the public but takes work to assemble.

Ahhh, Dave you mentioned in some other thread a while ago that these feeds provide this info and I totally forgot. From personal experience, this would definitely be worth the money. I spent so much of my development time collecting and stitching together that kind of data and it's still not great. If I could afford a feed that sends out a message when any of the race info changes such that I could react to it - that'd be fantastic

[vegasone]

I have seen where having a more current odds feed(watching two different feeds) would have saved me a bet because of lowering odds trend.....


Instead of trying to guess which way odds are going(at the last moment), having more current info has to be advantageous....

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by JerryBoyle

Ahhh, Dave you mentioned in some other thread a while ago that these feeds provide this info and I totally forgot. From personal experience, this would definitely be worth the money. I spent so much of my development time collecting and stitching together that kind of data and it's still not great. If I could afford a feed that sends out a message when any of the race info changes such that I could react to it - that'd be fantastic

It's around $20,000 per year.

[AltonKelsey]

Possible , but unlikely they do much live wagering , for the simple reason of no rebate.

[Suff]

Originally Posted by Jeff P

What if, instead of the 20 individual lifeboats carried by the Titanic - the ship were equipped with a single lifeboat only?

What if that single lifeboat was a giant inflatable raft?


.

Can I assume the race sample is US based? There is very little public money at Aqueduct in February.

Public money is really only in Race Pools when driven by the Calendar and/or Specific Race Events.


Wouldn't most US raced based software be useless in identifying value bets Internationally? They are betting favorites down to .75 in 29 horse fields in Hong Kong.

Would smaller sample size provide more accurate values.

Comparing pools and wagers from kentucky oaks day, to KY Derby day is like mainlining data. That data could be extrapolated out in projection models.



You could do it using NYRA. Saratoga has tons of public money , Belmont has less, aqueduct has even less. That data is about as close as you're going to get as a controlled study.

If ever a controlled study could be done, we actually wouldn't even need to time races or use betting pools. Just a common starting point and end point, with GPS, using latitude-longitude lines, in no time at all you'd have true odds as good as humanly possible.

True-life photo of the plane went down in the Hudson River a few years ago.

[ultracapper]

The biggest change I've made in the past year is to not try and beat the grossly underlayed favorite. It used to be when you'd see a legitimate 5/2 horse hammered down to 4/5, you'd scramble all over yourself looking for the overlay to play against that horse. Now, I just accept that the big money that has hammered this legit, but way over bet favorite, is correct.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Mike,

Metrics like this are what the horseplayer who is committed to improvement needs.

Not sure I exactly understand the graphic, but the fact that anyone takes the time to look at metrics searching for handicapping truth puts them much closer to it.

What we have now is a situation where players are throwing darts at a board trying to figure out what works and what doesn't work. They are learning by trial and error and by talking to others and reading books written by people that learned the game the same way. In many cases those "experts" don't even beat the game long term. So what are they going teach except a mixture of good and bad that probably won't make anyone else a winner either.

On top of that we have providers of handicapping information throwing darts at a board trying to figure out what those players want so they can sell it to them (regardless of whether it's what they should want or not) .

It's a big joke.

What's needed is the kind of mathematical and statistical expertise typically employed by whales, Wall St. etc.. combined with all the data available. Advanced stats guys could study the data and determine what actually works best and when down to the most detailed areas. Then they could translate that into new metrics and models. That would give the player what he NEEDS instead of what he falsely thinks he wants and needs because he's so misinformed from his own biased experience and some of the nonsense he's learned from others.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

What we have now is a situation where players are throwing darts at a board trying to figure out what works and what doesn't work...

...It's a big joke.

What's needed is the kind of mathematical and statistical expertise typically employed by whales, Wall St. etc.. combined with all the data available. Advanced stats guys could study the data and determine what actually works best and when down to the most detailed areas. Then they could translate that into new metrics and models. That would give the player what he NEEDS instead of what he falsely thinks he wants and needs because he's so misinformed from his own biased experience and some of the nonsense he's learned from others.

You are, of course, correct.

What you have just described is very much a "Big Data" approach.

1. This means somebody does the work and attempts to sell the output to handicappers. This is costly work to produce and very few people are willing to pay a fair price for such work.

2. People do not really want a Big Data solution. They really seem to want what they have now: a seat-of-the-pants approach: even if it continues to fail them.


Do you agree/disagree?

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

You are, of course, correct.

What you have just described is very much a "Big Data" approach.

1. This means somebody does the work and attempts to sell the output to handicappers. This is costly work to produce and very few people are willing to pay a fair price for such work.

2. People do not really want a Big Data solution. They really seem to want what they have now: a seat-of-the-pants approach: even if it continues to fail them.


Do you agree/disagree?

What is needed above all is the unwavering belief that the horseplayer could still prevail in today's game...which is obviously run exclusively for the benefit of the horsemen. And such a belief is sorely lacking among the horse-betting public...IMO. If people don't believe that today's game can be beaten, then they won't pay for the costly Big Data output of others...nor will they undertake the work themselves.

The "average player" has lost whatever faith he may have had in the racing industry...and has realized that the game is heading down a lamentable path which does not warrant the sizable investment of time and expense that it takes to continue trying to beat it. As it stands right now, the vast majority of horseplayers have drastically reduced their betting handle over years past...and still remain in the game strictly out of habit. Sad but true...IMO.