Whales: A chink in the armor?

[Suff]

or if anyone can send me pool data in any format, xml, html, .txt , csv , I will do the math. I can also connect to a pipe if anyone has one.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Fuss

What requires examination is the pools following the races where we identify a whale appeared. Particularity at small pool circuits.

Perhaps I didn't accurately state what causes this.

It is not an issue of a "whale appearing." The massive shifts are caused by the whales agreeing.

The whales are in almost every race. the lopsided movements are when many of them see the race the same way.

[Suff]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Perhaps I didn't accurately state what causes this.

It is not an issue of a "whale appearing." The massive shifts are caused by the whales agreeing.

The whales are in almost every race. the lopsided movements are when many of them see the race the same way.

No, I saw that. Makes sense. The example I provided actually fits that scenario because a single whale likely wouldn't do a 50% reduction in ROI to himself or would he? Genuinely asking you, would a single whale knowingly take a bet from 1-1, to .50-1? Are the betting decisions that agnostic? Even with an algorithm or some version of ML.

Race 4 at Gulf looks like Copy-Cat $

This toy should be able to identify if/when Whale money is in a race. Assuming no distinction between a single person making the wager, copy-cat whales making the same bets, or organic late money from a larger betting interest from the general public. This only deals with LATE MONEY.

[Suff]

Another question, only because I did not read every single word of the thread. Are there betting strategy's discussed based upon what you're seeing?

Can you catch them in the act? We can't because they wager late at velocity?

Or would we assume they * will be in THE LATE MONEY and generically account for them?

Where I see the value of my analysis is catching them after the fact because its how most problems are solved. Collect known data and start assumptions.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Fuss

Another question, only because I did not read every single word of the thread. Are there betting strategy's discussed based upon what you're seeing?

Can you catch them in the act? We can't because they wager late at velocity?

Or would we assume they're in the pool and generically account for them?

Where I see the value of my analysis is catching them after the fact because its how most problems are solved. Collect known data and start assumptions.

Look at this post.

[Suff]

Got it.

1. Which horse(s) are likely to be bet down below what they should be?

2. Which, of the low-odds horses is a true bet against horse?


Dave, could a syndicate be using your application and you not be aware of it? I imagine they could.

When saying "whales in every race"... I took that euphemistically, did you mean it literally?

Just random thoughts, I'd say there's dozens of syndicates. Real one's betting real money. But the every race? I have to think about that.

The new syndicates I believe are groups of 3-12 members with few capital restrictions. 50 groups doing that would not surprise me.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by Fuss

Got it.
1. Dave, could a syndicate be using your application and you not be aware of it? I imagine they could.

2. When saying "whales in every race"... I took that euphemistically, did you mean it literally?

3. Just random thoughts, I'd say there's dozens of syndicates. Real one's betting real money. But the every race? I have to think about that.

4. The new syndicates I believe are groups of 3-12 members with few capital restrictions. 50 groups doing that would not surprise me.

1. No. My software is not strong enough to win with that degree of accuracy.

2. Literally.

3. I said "80% of 80%" but it is really more like 85% of all track, 85% of all races, 85% of all pools in that race.

4. "Syndicate" is a misnomer. It is not a bunch of guys who have pooled resources. It is one or two people who started a corporation to beat the game. They hire employees. Lots of them.

Not saying there can't be "3-12" groups. I am saying that the big ones are at least 45 employees. This is FACT.


Additional comment: There are probably another 40-60 outliers. Single guys or "small" partnerships that are wagering $20m-$40m each. I have no way of knowing anything about them except to say that I've had personal contact with 4 of them in the past. Two (that I know of) of them have quit because they found that they could no longer win.

BTW, both of those have been members of PA for decades.

[Suff]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

1. No. My software is not strong enough to win with that degree of accuracy.

2.

BTW, both of those have been members of PA for decades.

I suspect that PA is a regular stop on the bus for more than 2. Just look at the hit counts on this topic over the years. Stealth reading only .. Say Nothing! 1st rule is to keep the secret sauce the secret sauce.

[Suff]

I'm pulling live tote data NYRA. I'm using the 3rd race at Saratoga.

I have streaming data.

PHP Code:

1:57 PM  14 min to Post                
1    Winston`s Chance    $3,950     $2,040     $1,235 
2    Horoscope    $7,119     $2,064     $1,324 
3    Holy Week    $2,119     $852     $983 
4    O Shea Can U See    $8,889     $2,811     $1,448 
5    Heavy Meddle    $5,370     $2,244     $1,241 
6    Mighty Zealous    $6,436     $3,367     $1,153 
Total        $33,886     $13,380     $7,387 


[jay68802]

Originally Posted by Fuss

I'm pulling live tote data NYRA. I'm using the 3rd race at Saratoga.

I have streaming data.

PHP Code:

1:57 PM  14 min to Post                
1    Winston`s Chance    $3,950     $2,040     $1,235 
2    Horoscope    $7,119     $2,064     $1,324 
3    Holy Week    $2,119     $852     $983 
4    O Shea Can U See    $8,889     $2,811     $1,448 
5    Heavy Meddle    $5,370     $2,244     $1,241 
6    Mighty Zealous    $6,436     $3,367     $1,153 
Total        $33,886     $13,380     $7,387 


Watch the tote on the and , most likely to get hit late.

[Suff]

I was able to get a lot of time stamped tote data from NYRA. Including the late money. These are Final win pool totals. I'm going build something more finite that may just be cool, but maybe useful. I do know that $69,000 was bet into the win pool in the last 30 seconds, because I have time stamp data at 30 seconds.

I'll work on this.

1. 1 Winston`s Chance $65,443
2. 2 Horoscope $67,661
3. 3 Holy Week $7,759
4. 4 O Shea Can U See $56,709
5. 5 Heavy Meddle $84,085
6. 6 Mighty Zealous $81,574
7. Total $363,234

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by jay68802

Watch the tote on the and , most likely to get hit late.

Excellent call!

And you were well-paid for your efforts. If you wagered both horses, you got back $9.30 for your $4 investment.




What you did was what I am trying to do: predict who will likely be hit late.

Jay, picks like the one you scored on are what you're really looking for: The horses that figure to be bet down. That doesn't mean they are really low odds!

One of my coaching clients had one last week that paid $57!

They key to understanding this is in the difference between "was hit late" and "should be hit late."


[Edit]
Fuss,

Remember that the answer will not be found in tote movement.

[Suff]

Originally Posted by Fuss

I was able to get a lot of time stamped tote data from NYRA. Including the late money. These are Final win pool totals. I'm going build something more finite that may just be cool, but maybe useful. I do know that $69,000 was bet into the win pool in the last 30 seconds, because I have time stamp data at 30 seconds.

I'll work on this.

1. 1 Winston`s Chance $65,443
2. 2 Horoscope $67,661
3. 3 Holy Week $7,759
4. 4 O Shea Can U See $56,709
5. 5 Heavy Meddle $84,085
6. 6 Mighty Zealous $81,574
7. Total $363,234

Think I am going to do more races at NYRA today. But just to wet our whistles. This is the win pool data @ 30 seconds. 3rd race , Its where I see the 69.

1. 1 Winston`s Chance $48,697
2. 2 Horoscope $56,290
3. 3 Holy Week $7,417
4. 4 O Shea Can U See $48,482
5. 5 Heavy Meddle $58,608
6. 6 Mighty Zealous $74,667
7. Total $294,164

[GMB@BP]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Excellent call!

And you were well-paid for your efforts. If you wagered both horses, you got back $9.30 for your $4 investment.




What you did was what I am trying to do: predict who will likely be hit late.

Jay, picks like the one you scored on are what you're really looking for: The horses that figure to be bet down. That doesn't mean they are really low odds!

One of my coaching clients had one last week that paid $57!

They key to understanding this is in the difference between "was hit late" and "should be hit late."


[Edit]
Fuss,

Remember that the answer will not be found in tote movement.

if you use computer software thats any good its pretty easy to predict which horses are going to get hit late, and if they dont you might as well tear up your tickets cause there is a reason they didnt and I didnt see it.

[Suff]

If you're following along there is a learning in this race that can be used later.

In the last 30 seconds, $342 was bet on Holy Week. In a real pool at a real track, as little as 350 dollars can be bet on a horse at last flash.

This helps in achieving a consensus on plausibility of the scenarios inside the upper/lower bound ranges.

[3]Holy Week 7417
[3]Holy Week 7759

More data, so I'll build it up in a few days and post back what I find.