Whales: A chink in the armor?

[dnlgfnk]

I wanna believe it. But then we get a clear threat from a ML, 2nd race back speed fig, arguably second-ranked contender perspective, paying $33 at a major outlet --Gulfstream 2nd race minutes ago...and hope springs anew.

[Dave Schwartz]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

What is needed above all is the unwavering belief that the horseplayer could still prevail in today's game...which is obviously run exclusively for the benefit of the horsemen. And such a belief is sorely lacking among the horse-betting public...IMO. If people don't believe that today's game can be beaten, then they won't pay for the costly Big Data output of others...nor will they undertake the work themselves.

The "average player" has lost whatever faith he may have had in the racing industry...and has realized that the game is heading down a lamentable path which does not warrant the sizable investment of time and expense that it takes to continue trying to beat it. As it stands right now, the vast majority of horseplayers have drastically reduced their betting handle over years past...and still remain in the game strictly out of habit. Sad but true...IMO.

Boy, did you say a mouthful.

And all true.




IMHO, not only does the "average player" have zero chance, but even the committed player has no chance without lots of study.

The day is fast approaching when the tracks will realize that the betting customer is no longer an ever-renewable resource.

Trainers have pillaged the game by exhausting the customers' bankrolls by controlling track management. They are the tail that wags the dog.

What will they do when the tracks have sold out to the condo developers?

And through it all, nothing for the customer has improved. It just continues to get worse.


(No signature.)
;-)

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

You are, of course, correct.

What you have just described is very much a "Big Data" approach.

1. This means somebody does the work and attempts to sell the output to handicappers. This is costly work to produce and very few people are willing to pay a fair price for such work.

2. People do not really want a Big Data solution. They really seem to want what they have now: a seat-of-the-pants approach: even if it continues to fail them.


Do you agree/disagree?

To a large extent they've read books and learned things on their own that are wrong. They just don't know that. It's hard to unlearn what you've been wrong about for a long time. I'm becoming more sensitive to that in my own learning.

[Tom]

What will they do when the tracks have sold out to the condo developers?

Probably move into the condos.
WE sure as hell can't afford to!

I am sure a good number of them will be absorbed at Piggly Wiggly.
They always need quality help.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

What is needed above all is the unwavering belief that the horseplayer could still prevail in today's game...which is obviously run exclusively for the benefit of the horsemen.

You keep saying that and I understand why, but if you are including owners in that I don't think it's accurate. Most owners are losing their shirt.

The economics of the sport suck. Until we fix that (which as people know I believe is going to require consolidation, removal of politics, and short term pain for people in the industry), nothing is going to get better for owners or players. We'll keep muddling along and slowly shrinking. Even now, handle is up, but it's all BS. Handle is up because the economy and employment are booming. As soon as this business cycle is over we are going to head back down sharply.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

You keep saying that and I understand why, but if you are including owners in that I don't think it's accurate. Most owners are losing their shirt.

I'm not including the owners under the term "horsemen". In fact...I have often commented here about the high financial risk associated with horse ownership.

[castaway01]

Originally Posted by Dave Schwartz

Boy, did you say a mouthful.

And all true.




IMHO, not only does the "average player" have zero chance, but even the committed player has no chance without lots of study.

The day is fast approaching when the tracks will realize that the betting customer is no longer an ever-renewable resource.

Trainers have pillaged the game by exhausting the customers' bankrolls by controlling track management. They are the tail that wags the dog.

What will they do when the tracks have sold out to the condo developers?

And through it all, nothing for the customer has improved. It just continues to get worse.


(No signature.)
;-)

I think that day came about a decade ago and most tracks are run as either "just trying to keep going another year" or "keep going until we get that casino license" (and obviously now most places that would get that license have done so). That's why so many decisions are made that involve only short-term thinking---the people in charge know the future is very cloudy but are just trying to get through this season. There are exceptions, but not many.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by classhandicapper

Even now, handle is up, but it's all BS. Handle is up because the economy and employment are booming. As soon as this business cycle is over we are going to head back down sharply.

The increasing handle is all BS...but not because of the booming economy and employment. Do you know of even a single person who is betting more money on the horses now than they did in years past? If a poll question were put up today...how many posters here would declare that today's "booming economy" has encouraged them to bet more money at the track?

If the mutuel handle is slightly up currently...it's strictly a computer-group betting phenomenon, IMO.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The increasing handle is all BS...but not because of the booming economy and employment. Do you know of even a single person who is betting more money on the horses now than they did in years past? If a poll question were put up today...how many posters here would declare that today's "booming economy" has encouraged them to bet more money at the track?

If the mutuel handle is slightly up currently...it's strictly a computer-group betting phenomenon, IMO.

I bet significantly more per race now (I still don't make many bets) but my income has nothing to do with it. I make a lot less now than I did at my peak. However, there has always been a very good relationship between employment/incomes and betting handle. People that aren't working or that are barely scraping by don't bet much because they can't. After the 2008 bust handle collapsed. I think it will again. No doubt you are correct that lots of people are dropping out or betting less now also.

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

The increasing handle is all BS...but not because of the booming economy and employment. Do you know of even a single person who is betting more money on the horses now than they did in years past? If a poll question were put up today...how many posters here would declare that today's "booming economy" has encouraged them to bet more money at the track?

If the mutuel handle is slightly up currently...it's strictly a computer-group betting phenomenon, IMO.

If all people approached gambling the way you do then you are probably correct. For the majority of people gambling is a recreation and the economy and their employment situation is a huge factor.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by AndyC

If all people approached gambling the way you do then you are probably correct. For the majority of people gambling is a recreation and the economy and their employment situation is a huge factor.

Once again I find myself in disagreement with you. Put a poll question up here, because I don't know how to do it myself...and I'll bet my bottom dollar that the vast majority of our posters here will say that they are betting less money on the horses now, than they were betting a few years ago...when Obama was supposedly leading the economy down the toilet.

Put up the poll question, Andy...and let's see which one of us is right. Unless, that is, you don't think that our group here is an adequate enough representation of the "gambling majority" at large.

[jay68802]

I can say that for me, I am betting about 25% less in dollars, but am betting about 50% fewer races. Today was $164.00 wagered, $165.40 returned. The good news is that if I happen to catch 1 more bet, the return would have at least doubled.

[thaskalos]

Originally Posted by jay68802

I can say that for me, I am betting about 25% less in dollars, but am betting about 50% fewer races. Today was $164.00 wagered, $165.40 returned. The good news is that if I happen to catch 1 more bet, the return would have at least doubled.

Your betting action is 25% less, "booming economy" notwithstanding...and you are one of the sophisticated MINORITY! Can you imagine how much less the "unsophisticated MAJORITY" must be betting, compared to years past?

[AndyC]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Once again I find myself in disagreement with you. Put a poll question up here, because I don't know how to do it myself...and I'll bet my bottom dollar that the vast majority of our posters here will say that they are betting less money on the horses now, than they were betting a few years ago...when Obama was supposedly leading the economy down the toilet.

Put up the poll question, Andy...and let's see which one of us is right. Unless, that is, you don't think that our group here is an adequate enough representation of the "gambling majority" at large.

This forum is certainly not a representative population of people betting at the track or ADW. The sophistication level here far exceeds the average players. Joe six-pack who gets together with his buddies a couple of weekends a month would probably not have a dedicated bankroll for horse betting. Personal cash flow which rises in good economic times would drive the amounts bet.

[classhandicapper]

Originally Posted by thaskalos

Once again I find myself in disagreement with you. Put a poll question up here, because I don't know how to do it myself...and I'll bet my bottom dollar that the vast majority of our posters here will say that they are betting less money on the horses now, than they were betting a few years ago...when Obama was supposedly leading the economy down the toilet.

Put up the poll question, Andy...and let's see which one of us is right. Unless, that is, you don't think that our group here is an adequate enough representation of the "gambling majority" at large.

A poll is not necessary.

There is a long record of industry handle/yearling prices vs. economic activity that suggests the economy impacts the handle and yearling prices independent of other factors.

So you can be correct that some people are dropping out or lowering their handle and we can be correct that the current rise in handle is partly related to the booming economy and higher employment. They are independent parts of the same story. The economy is working in a positive direction now offsetting some of the long term issues you are concerned with. What I am saying is that when this economy finally rolls over you'll have 2 forces working in negative direction and it's going to get really ugly again.