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Old 07-22-2020, 11:21 PM   #1
MargieRose
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The Official Trump 'Rising' Thread

Let's start with this: Operation Legend

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Old 07-22-2020, 11:47 PM   #2
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i would say that the best way to judge if he rises or not is by the line of the election. as you know the line has nothing to do with any poll and it certainly can be a more accurate way to judge how the candidate is doing.

in honor of your thread, here is a starting line and i will try to post it here every time it changes.

2020 US Presidential Election - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 PM
101 Joe Biden wins Presidential Election -175
102 Donald Trump wins Presidential Election +155
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Old 07-23-2020, 12:05 AM   #3
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i would say that the best way to judge if he rises or not is by the line of the election. as you know the line has nothing to do with any poll and it certainly can be a more accurate way to judge how the candidate is doing.

in honor of your thread, here is a starting line and i will try to post it here every time it changes.

2020 US Presidential Election - Tuesday, November 3, 2020 8:00 PM
101 Joe Biden wins Presidential Election -175
102 Donald Trump wins Presidential Election +155
The only line that counts is the line right before the election.

These lines had Trump as a pretty legit favorite not too long ago...even through all the Russia bullshit and the impeachment hearings...

Why do you think this means anything 3+ months out?
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Old 07-23-2020, 01:20 AM   #4
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The only line that counts is the line right before the election.

These lines had Trump as a pretty legit favorite not too long ago...even through all the Russia bullshit and the impeachment hearings...

Why do you think this means anything 3+ months out?
That is why he does it, he believes in fairy dust. He thinks he makes a difference, I love to fly, to visualize as the jet climbs and the people get smaller and smaller. But a very small dot on this mass expanse, even smaller here at Pace Advantage.
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Old 07-23-2020, 04:04 AM   #5
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truthfully this line says a lot. normally in most elections at this time except for the Reagan re-election, the democrats were always 2-1 or more, keep in mind that they lost the 3, George Bush elections, father and son. so far this election looks good for Trump.

probably even a better indicator for the strength or weakness in this president will be price of the US dollar. so far its been holding up remarkably well over 95. if it falls below 90, there will be a major problem in this re-election. if that happens i don't think there will be enough votes that could be manufactured to make any difference.

i know that the comeback to the dollar decline is that the whole world is in a big mess right now. i don't think that makes any difference.
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Old 07-23-2020, 06:05 AM   #6
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Why do you think this means anything 3+ months out?
Horseplayers do it all the time with KY Derby Futures, 4-5 months ahead of time. And they actually put real MONEY on it.
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Old 07-23-2020, 06:37 AM   #7
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The only line that counts is the line right before the election.
Thatís simply not true. Letís say you think Margie is right and trump will rise from the ashes. You bet trump.at high odds. And then when trump surges and Bidenís odds go high. You buy biden. Thus creating a position that you cannot lose.

See how that works.

Itís all about making money and less about politics.

So the answer to the question is that all lines matter no matter what time frame they are published.

People middle all the time in Vegas and jersey on the NFL

Allan

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Old 07-23-2020, 09:22 AM   #8
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non horse players will tell you the only odds that matter are ones after the race is run, they happen to be right because those are the odds they pay you on.

but in elections, you make your bets on fixed odds and you get paid with them after the election. i think that is the reason why odds on elections 3 months or more ahead of time are very important. knowing the correct odds will help marjie in the rise or fall of this president.
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Old 07-23-2020, 05:22 PM   #9
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What kind of pool sizes are we talking about here?
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Old 07-23-2020, 07:52 PM   #10
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Thatís simply not true. Letís say you think Margie is right and trump will rise from the ashes.
What ashes?
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Old 07-23-2020, 09:18 PM   #11
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What kind of pool sizes are we talking about here?
Pool sizes?
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Old 07-24-2020, 06:15 AM   #12
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pool/bet size

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plu...et/1.128151441
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Old 07-24-2020, 06:39 AM   #13
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What ashes?

Lol. Trump is well behind 100 days out. Sorry to break it to you.

Trump will become a Phoenix if retains the presidency.

Ashes. 2.86 on betfair.

When it hit 1.01 trumps a winner.

Really doubtful 100 days out.

Allan
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Old 07-24-2020, 08:26 AM   #14
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Lol. Trump is well behind 100 days out. Sorry to break it to you.

Trump will become a Phoenix if retains the presidency.

Ashes. 2.86 on betfair.

When it hit 1.01 trumps a winner.

Really doubtful 100 days out.

Allan
where was he 4 years ago?

really doubtful?
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Old 07-24-2020, 08:56 AM   #15
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where was he 4 years ago?

really doubtful?
according to the polls he was further behind than he is this time, but the main difference is that now he is the incumbent. but nothing to worry about if you are a Trump fan, he has picked up some liberal support, he has been scaring away some conservatives whom he might be able to get back if he swings more to the right. it will be a balancing act.

to say the least, this is a tough election to handicap because this guy can sting like a bee in the right places.
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