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Old 01-29-2019, 02:20 PM   #1
cj
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Weekly TimeformUS Pacecast/Forecast

David Aragona and I discuss the biggest races from last weekend, in this case headlined by the Pegasus.

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Old 01-29-2019, 03:29 PM   #2
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Great job.
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Old 01-29-2019, 04:24 PM   #3
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Great job to both of you. Lots of info and not a lot of bullshit.

I was wondering since it was not mentioned if you knew the pace from the Houston Ladies Classic?
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Old 01-29-2019, 05:45 PM   #4
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Great job to both of you. Lots of info and not a lot of bullshit.

I was wondering since it was not mentioned if you knew the pace from the Houston Ladies Classic?
I haven't got to that yet. They had MASSIVE timing issues all night so a bit behind on that card.
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Old 01-29-2019, 05:46 PM   #5
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I haven't got to that yet. They had MASSIVE timing issues all night so a bit behind on that card.
That said, I can say the 1/2 mile was slow compared to final time, 3/4 mile moderate. The raw (before variant) figs:

1/2 101
3/4 115
Fin 120
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Old 01-29-2019, 06:40 PM   #6
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Hidden Scroll (The Bill Mott MSW winner in race 4) was an interesting topic that you and David discussed. Then you discussed how the track could have changed for the stakes race at a mile later in the card...



In the Pegasus World Cup = I bet Seeking the Soul, underneath, in exactas. However, I'm hesitant to now view him as a 'division leader'. The somewhat against-the-grain closing effort by Seeking the Soul is a bit of a curveball. No one else really closed. I just had that race as really 'top heavy'. Seeking the Soul did no running early, and he beat a fading Accelerate who was chasing and briefly engaging the winner, and not much else.

Interesting how much money Hidden Scroll and Seeking the Soul take next out.
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Old 01-30-2019, 09:48 AM   #7
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Hidden Scroll (The Bill Mott MSW winner in race 4) was an interesting topic that you and David discussed. Then you discussed how the track could have changed for the stakes race at a mile later in the card...



In the Pegasus World Cup = I bet Seeking the Soul, underneath, in exactas. However, I'm hesitant to now view him as a 'division leader'. The somewhat against-the-grain closing effort by Seeking the Soul is a bit of a curveball. No one else really closed. I just had that race as really 'top heavy'. Seeking the Soul did no running early, and he beat a fading Accelerate who was chasing and briefly engaging the winner, and not much else.

Interesting how much money Hidden Scroll and Seeking the Soul take next out.
I'm not nearly as high on STS as David, kind of poo pooed him a bit when I first talked about the race. That said, with so little left running he might be the leader by default. I'd expect that won't last but you never know.
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Old 01-30-2019, 01:14 PM   #8
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I'm not nearly as high on STS as David, kind of poo pooed him a bit when I first talked about the race. That said, with so little left running he might be the leader by default. I'd expect that won't last but you never know.
He's certainly the most interesting (and maybe Pattern Recognition?) left from the Pegasus after the two headliners retired.


How much did you and Beyer break out (if any) the MSW with Hidden Scroll vs the Fred Hooper with Aztec Sense?

Hidden Scroll 104 Beyer (134.82)

Aztec Sense 94 Beyer (136.22)
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Old 01-30-2019, 01:56 PM   #9
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The idea that Seeking the Soul will somehow be a player in the major older horse races this year seems ludicrous to me. Even with that division in seeming shambles at this point, I find that highly unlikely,
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Old 01-30-2019, 02:42 PM   #10
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He's certainly the most interesting (and maybe Pattern Recognition?) left from the Pegasus after the two headliners retired.


How much did you and Beyer break out (if any) the MSW with Hidden Scroll vs the Fred Hooper with Aztec Sense?

Hidden Scroll 104 Beyer (134.82)

Aztec Sense 94 Beyer (136.22)
Based on the above, Beyer did about 4 points but that is a rough guess just eyeballing it. I think the difference in times is about 14 points.

I treated the races totally separately. It was impossible to reconcile using the same variant for both races IMO. I have a much bigger gap than above.
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Old 01-30-2019, 02:43 PM   #11
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The idea that Seeking the Soul will somehow be a player in the major older horse races this year seems ludicrous to me. Even with that division in seeming shambles at this point, I find that highly unlikely,
No argument here. Feels totally random at this point given what is left behind. They all have serious holes.
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Old 01-30-2019, 03:12 PM   #12
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No argument here. Feels totally random at this point given what is left behind. They all have serious holes.
Totally agree....and it's WAY too early to have a real opinion anyway. Horses will come out of the woodwork. How good they are remains to be seen.
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Old 01-30-2019, 03:45 PM   #13
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Based on the above, Beyer did about 4 points but that is a rough guess just eyeballing it. I think the difference in times is about 14 points.

I treated the races totally separately. It was impossible to reconcile using the same variant for both races IMO. I have a much bigger gap than above.
Not that I'm anxious to bet against anyone, but I'm going to have a tough time accepting anything with conviction off that track.
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Old 01-30-2019, 07:46 PM   #14
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Any chance it might arrive on Google Music podcasts?
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Old 01-30-2019, 08:03 PM   #15
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Any chance it might arrive on Google Music podcasts?
I honestly don't know much about how it is distributed at all. I should know more before next week and will mention it at the end. This week was supposed to be just a test run but they put it live after hearing it.

I know you can find them in these places:

https://www.youtube.com/user/DailyRacingForm

http://video.drf.com/

For listening on my phone (to others, I NEVER listen to myself), I use Castbox app which has all the DRF stuff.

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