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Old 08-31-2018, 11:22 PM   #1
Lemon Drop Husker
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G1 Woodward Stakes 9/1/18

While it may not be the most impressive Woodward, it is full of 14 legitimate contenders. This is one tough hombre.



Yoshida: Has never ran on dirt, but he has beat some of the very best turf horses in the states. Still only a 4YO, and we all saw Catholic Boy do the same thing and romp at this very track. A must consideration.

Imperative: Looked like a one time serious contender in the elder ranks. Now, as an 8YO, he is tough take as a serious contender. He could clunk up for a Super. Hard to see anything better than that.

Patch: "We're gonna take the old one eye to the optometrist". Reality for this entry is that as a 4YO he simply hasn't gotten better, and maybe has even regressed. Even if he runs a career best, he still isn't good enough.

Tapwrit: Another 4YO that hasn't progressed much. His Suburban wasn't awful, but he still got beat by nearly 10 lengths. I gave him a shot last out, and thus have to take a hard pass this time.

Hence: Has never beat anybody of note. Ever. Complete toss.

Term Of Art: Improving 4YO has basically ran everywhere in the states. His last two with Cox training are pretty damn good. This is an improving horse at what could be a monster price.

Kurilov: 14 for 18 in the money with 7 wins. This guy likes to win. Still not sure he is good enough here to beat these.

Discreet Lover: Only one win this year and is 0 for 4 at 'Toga. Runs a lot of good races, that just aren't ever enough. Exotics bound.

Gunnevera: OK, let me preface that Gunny was my Derby horse last year. He is undoubtedly as good as any in this field and is fresh. Not sure he should be the favorite, but he may well be. He is a must include on any ticket for me.

Seeking the Soul: He and Gunny should battle for favoritism. This is a dangerous horse that can run a monster. His last 4 races are as good as any in the field. Rolls in off a bullet work, and has to get deserved respect.

Leofric: 11(6-1-2). Tactical horse that can run any way you want. If you are looking for a shot, look no further. This horse can run.

Sunny Ridge: A 5YO that is getting better. Hasn't beaten much yet, but I wouldn't put it past him to be in the mix late in this one. Not without a chance and gets Irad on board.

Zanotti: 0 for '18 with 5 seconds against lessers. This guy doesn't like or want to win. Solid exotics play for Tris and Supers.

Rally Cry: Last year's runner up returns, and certainly isn't in any kind of form like last year. 2nd race of the year. Should be fresh, and Pletcher is always dangerous. Smith/Pletcher, and you could get 25/1.

Last edited by Lemon Drop Husker; 08-31-2018 at 11:25 PM.
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Old 09-01-2018, 10:28 AM   #2
biggestal99
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemon Drop Husker View Post





Gunnevera: OK, let me preface that Gunny was my Derby horse last year. He is undoubtedly as good as any in this field and is fresh. Not sure he should be the favorite, but he may well be. He is a must include on any ticket for me.
Hold it right here. Trainer sano did the exact same last year. Easy prep at GP, then turn the screws and ship to the spa in late August. Outran his odds in travers last year. Goes one better today. Key, key, key horse.

Allan
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Old 09-01-2018, 11:27 AM   #3
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Not a single standout in the race, so lets play The Price Is Right.

Three choices, all are 20-1 and all can get the job done.

Rally Cry

Zanotti

Leofric
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Old 09-01-2018, 11:32 AM   #4
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Tough race to handicap... my three win contenders

Seeking The Soul good form off the layoff and good works. Of the "closers" in the race looks to be the most able to sit closer to the pace should it fall apart up front.
Leofric Brad Cox trained, looks to be a horse that runs well near the pace whether it be slightly fast or slow and usually finishes well. Speed from Candy Ride and his dam side says the added distance won't be an issue. My pick to win.
Rally Cry that last race...yeesh. But the price will be right. Expecting Pletcher to have this one ready to run at a big price. This horse beat Diversify last April, maybe he can run back to that race again.

Second tier
Yoshida have to respect this horse enough for 2nd place contention. Will he take to the dirt and be able to carve out a good trip in a 14 horse field?
Gunnevera another horse you have to respect. Will close well in a race I don't believe will set up for a deep closer.

3rd tier
Term of Art the other Cox horse. Class test here, should be forwardly placed and looks to have the ability to fight and hold on for a piece in the stretch.
Discreet Lover is a horse that seems like he will run a competitive race but will be shuffled a little too far back to make an impact on the winner.

Tri /w/w $30
Ex /w $12
$4 win on and $8
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Old 09-01-2018, 12:35 PM   #5
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I'm going with Yoshida. Lost to some of best Turf horses in the world by only a length and a quarter at Ascot. No world beaters here.Mott thinks he can run on dirt. At 5-1 he's worth a bet.
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Old 09-01-2018, 02:13 PM   #6
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I like the , , so how about $5 Ex box! It's only funny money but now I have someone to root for!
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Old 09-01-2018, 02:24 PM   #7
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$0.50 TRI = $30
1, 10, 13
1, 4, 6, 8, 10, 13
1, 4, 6, 8, 10, 13
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Old 09-01-2018, 03:09 PM   #8
Robert Fischer
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WIN CONTENDERS:
Yoshida - Golden opportunity today to play the rail into the first turn. You have to hope that Rosario understands the golden opportunity. Then you have to hope that the break is clean, and that the horse can run to form. If all that goes well, you still don't get a good price, but at least you have the winner.

Kurilov - Weak field falls into his lap. Figures to get a fair trip, but can't be lazily handled into the first turn, otherwise could be getting pushed around.

Seeking the Soul - Probably the 'best' horse in the race, but if he's a 'key' in your Trifecta, you would need to use in all three spots.

Sunny Ridge - Like the , if all goes well he'll be sitting pretty. But a lot has to go well and the value stinks.



VALUE ADDS:

Patch. - Race sets up for Patch. He can run 3rd or 4th and help a tri or super. He's this race's 'Discreet Lover'.

Tapwrit - Make sure you are actually getting 5,6-1 or more. He's a danger to lose value to popularity. He can run 3rd or 4th or even 2nd with a dream trip. Current form is relatively good (compared to Tapwrit's form cycle), and he draws well in a mediocre field).

Term of Art - It's a 'reach', but he could get a good trip in here with the lack of early pace and the short-run to the 1st-turn.
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Old 09-01-2018, 03:17 PM   #9
Tom
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Looking to classify this race, I have a system I used, drived from an article HalvOnHorseracing wrote
about playing turf races.

I rank each horse by the highest class level it has run and look for 30% of the race to meet the level
of the race. So for 14 horses, I need 4 horse to rank as "1".

To rate the horse, I look at past wins as follows:

Gr1 =1
Gr2 = 2
Gr3 = 3
Open Stake = 4
Restricted/State Bred Stake = 5

Beyer Pars - Gr1 9 furlongs dirt = 108 Turf = 104 Looking for a fig within 5 points.

01. Yoshida. Best race is a Gr1 TURF win, earned a 106, better than par.
02. Imperative. Best is Gr2 in the slop at CT, earned a 96, very poor Gr1 figure and a "weird" track.
03. Patch. Won a NW1 allowance slow steak time.
04. Tawrit. Won a Gr1 (Belmont) last year in 103. Age adjusted, probably close to today's par.
05. Hence. Won a Gr3 last year, 92 fig. Slow. Recent figs are better, but still slow.
06. Term of Art. Beaten a neck in the Gr3 at Mnr in 95 time. Slow
07. Beaten a neck in a Gr1 on turf in Florida - 102 fig puts it in range for today.
08. Discreet Lover. Won Gr3 in 98 time - slow.
09. Gunnevera. Won a Gr2 for 3yos last year, and ran a 104 and 109 Gr1 stakes last year.
10. Seeking the Soul. Won the Gr1 Clark in 103.
11. Won a Gr3, slow 96.
12. Sunny Ridge. No stakes win showing, but a 102 last out in a Gr4 win.
13. Zanotti. Within 1/2 length in a Gr3 in good time, 102.
14. Rally Cry. Second to Gun Runner in this race last year, only 2 starts since. Has run a 102 and a 110.

This is a Gr3 race. Close to Gr1, but not enough horses and some on turf.

Horses who have run well in Gr2 or Gr1 races and run within par are contenders. You have to take post position into account here, too.

1,4, 7,9,10, 12, 13, and 14 are contenders.

4-1
3-1
7-1
8-1
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Last edited by Tom; 09-01-2018 at 03:21 PM.
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Old 09-01-2018, 04:23 PM   #10
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I think Tapwrit should be able to assert himself in this spot.No idea what the price will be but he seems likely to draw some support...may just go with with a win bet if the odds are near the ML.
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Old 09-01-2018, 05:59 PM   #11
Buckeye
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I'll take the 11 at 20-1

and if you don't like that, take the 12 at 8-1
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Old 09-01-2018, 06:12 PM   #12
Thomas Roulston
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Were any horses excluded due to the 14-horse limit?

One of the big races at Hialeah in the early '80s had a 16-horse field one year (actually 17 were entered, but #17 was scratched).
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Old 09-01-2018, 06:20 PM   #13
Lemon Drop Husker
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//All
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Old 09-01-2018, 06:29 PM   #14
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I like the maybe has seconditis lately but should still go off at good value for place/show.
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Old 09-01-2018, 06:32 PM   #15
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W-

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