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Old 09-19-2010, 11:34 AM   #1
TEJAS KIDD
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Positive Psyche > Higher Profit Ratio





For the past several years I've shown a negative ROI in both WP and Superfecta wagering and a positive ROI in both Exacta and Trifecta wagering. Some would say, "Why don't you stop playing WP and Superfectas to increase your overall profit ratio?"

I say "NO"

The reason I won't stop is because even though not profitable, the WP and Superfectas keep my psyche in a positive state. Many times these wagers (especially the WP) are meant as saver (hedge) wagers just in case I am not correct about my exacta/tri/super combinations. The Superfectas, I play on a much smaller scale and many times I hit for a big number even when my top choices finish in the bottom lines. Basically, the whole thing works together to keep my churn churning and my mentality in the right frame of mind.

If I were to only play the exactas/trifectas, there would a higher ROI overall, but there would also be more losing streaks, which in turn, can effect my confidence and therefore decrease my wagering handle which could adversely effect my overall profit in the game. I'd rather have 10% of 5X than 25% of X.

For example last night, I spent the night at the track. I hit only 1 trifecta and only 1 exacta on the 9 race card. It would've been a terrible night had I not played win bets. I walked out hitting 5 winners and survived a terrible evening of exotic wagering. I could have ended the weekend on a 2 day losing streak while lacking confidence for the beginning of next week's races but instead I walked out a winner knowing that I'll be firing away come next Wednesday.
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Old 09-19-2010, 07:19 PM   #2
thaskalos
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TEJAS KIDD



For the past several years I've shown a negative ROI in both WP and Superfecta wagering and a positive ROI in both Exacta and Trifecta wagering. Some would say, "Why don't you stop playing WP and Superfectas to increase your overall profit ratio?"

I say "NO"

The reason I won't stop is because even though not profitable, the WP and Superfectas keep my psyche in a positive state. Many times these wagers (especially the WP) are meant as saver (hedge) wagers just in case I am not correct about my exacta/tri/super combinations. The Superfectas, I play on a much smaller scale and many times I hit for a big number even when my top choices finish in the bottom lines. Basically, the whole thing works together to keep my churn churning and my mentality in the right frame of mind.

If I were to only play the exactas/trifectas, there would a higher ROI overall, but there would also be more losing streaks, which in turn, can effect my confidence and therefore decrease my wagering handle which could adversely effect my overall profit in the game. I'd rather have 10% of 5X than 25% of X.

For example last night, I spent the night at the track. I hit only 1 trifecta and only 1 exacta on the 9 race card. It would've been a terrible night had I not played win bets. I walked out hitting 5 winners and survived a terrible evening of exotic wagering. I could have ended the weekend on a 2 day losing streak while lacking confidence for the beginning of next week's races but instead I walked out a winner knowing that I'll be firing away come next Wednesday.
Different kinds of bets in the same race don't necessarily qualify to be called "hedging" bets, unless you construct them in a hedging way. If you use the same "key" horses in all your wagers, you still expose yourself to long losing streaks...and they will be even more painful because of the added investment.

In any case...if you are a regular player, a 2 day losing streak should not affect you to the degree of having your confidence shaken. Such is the nature of this game...and we all have to adapt to it.

You are also implying by your post that you bet on every race...which is never a good idea...IMO.

Last edited by thaskalos; 09-19-2010 at 07:24 PM.
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Old 09-19-2010, 07:52 PM   #3
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TEJAS KIDD



For the past several years I've shown a negative ROI in both WP and Superfecta wagering and a positive ROI in both Exacta and Trifecta wagering. Some would say, "Why don't you stop playing WP and Superfectas to increase your overall profit ratio?"

I say "NO"

The reason I won't stop is because even though not profitable, the WP and Superfectas keep my psyche in a positive state. Many times these wagers (especially the WP) are meant as saver (hedge) wagers just in case I am not correct about my exacta/tri/super combinations. The Superfectas, I play on a much smaller scale and many times I hit for a big number even when my top choices finish in the bottom lines. Basically, the whole thing works together to keep my churn churning and my mentality in the right frame of mind.

If I were to only play the exactas/trifectas, there would a higher ROI overall, but there would also be more losing streaks, which in turn, can effect my confidence and therefore decrease my wagering handle which could adversely effect my overall profit in the game. I'd rather have 10% of 5X than 25% of X.

For example last night, I spent the night at the track. I hit only 1 trifecta and only 1 exacta on the 9 race card. It would've been a terrible night had I not played win bets. I walked out hitting 5 winners and survived a terrible evening of exotic wagering. I could have ended the weekend on a 2 day losing streak while lacking confidence for the beginning of next week's races but instead I walked out a winner knowing that I'll be firing away come next Wednesday.
If you've kept accurate records of your plays for a few years, and know what works for you and what doesn't, then I don't see why should have any lack of confidence at all, when you can see a profit in the long run.

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Old 09-20-2010, 02:11 PM   #4
TEJAS KIDD
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Turkoman
If you've kept accurate records of your plays for a few years, and know what works for you and what doesn't, then I don't see why should have any lack of confidence at all, when you can see a profit in the long run.

Turkoman
It's like a pro quarterback throwing a bad interception and then being hesitant the next time he has to throw the same pass. He's a pro and has the confidence of a pro but theres always that short term memory to effect him on the next series. Same with me, overall I have the confidence, but when I have a few bad days, my confidence can take a hit(and bankroll).

As far as betting every race is concerned, I only bet the track I am working on, I do every thing necessary to get an edge over the public. I may take a race or two off each night, and I certainly back off the amounts wagered in races that I feel my edge may be on the weak side and there is less value.
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Old 09-20-2010, 02:23 PM   #5
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TEJAS KIDD
It's like a pro quarterback throwing a bad interception and then being hesitant the next time he has to throw the same pass. He's a pro and has the confidence of a pro but theres always that short term memory to effect him on the next series. Same with me, overall I have the confidence, but when I have a few bad days, my confidence can take a hit(and bankroll).

As far as betting every race is concerned, I only bet the track I am working on, I do every thing necessary to get an edge over the public. I may take a race or two off each night, and I certainly back off the amounts wagered in races that I feel my edge may be on the weak side and there is less value.
There is an important distinction that has to be made here.

When a quarterback throws a bad interception, he may very well have made a bad mistake...but the horseplayer who loses a race, or even a string of races, often has made no mistake at all.

We often lose at the track not because of mistakes...but because we possess incomplete information about the horses we are betting on.
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Old 09-20-2010, 11:06 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TEJAS KIDD



For the past several years I've shown a negative ROI in both WP and Superfecta wagering and a positive ROI in both Exacta and Trifecta wagering. Some would say, "Why don't you stop playing WP and Superfectas to increase your overall profit ratio?"

I say "NO"

The reason I won't stop is because even though not profitable, the WP and Superfectas keep my psyche in a positive state. Many times these wagers (especially the WP) are meant as saver (hedge) wagers just in case I am not correct about my exacta/tri/super combinations. The Superfectas, I play on a much smaller scale and many times I hit for a big number even when my top choices finish in the bottom lines. Basically, the whole thing works together to keep my churn churning and my mentality in the right frame of mind.

If I were to only play the exactas/trifectas, there would a higher ROI overall, but there would also be more losing streaks, which in turn, can effect my confidence and therefore decrease my wagering handle which could adversely effect my overall profit in the game. I'd rather have 10% of 5X than 25% of X.

For example last night, I spent the night at the track. I hit only 1 trifecta and only 1 exacta on the 9 race card. It would've been a terrible night had I not played win bets. I walked out hitting 5 winners and survived a terrible evening of exotic wagering. I could have ended the weekend on a 2 day losing streak while lacking confidence for the beginning of next week's races but instead I walked out a winner knowing that I'll be firing away come next Wednesday.
What you are doing has validity. Not only is good for your mental state, but it also reduces your probability of ruin. That is because of the importance of reducing the variance of your net gain. And by using your approach, although your ROI may be reduced, your net gain increases, and your probability of ruin decreases. That is NOT a bad combination.

Mike
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Old 09-21-2010, 02:59 AM   #7
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Negative ROI means your method for WP and superfecta sucks and you should stop playing them till you improve your method. Playing them now you are using them as a psychological crutch against a complete beat for the day. Get stronger emotionally and improve your handicapping. Bad bets should NEVER be made, especially if they are being made to massage your fragile ego!
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Old 09-21-2010, 09:58 AM   #8
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Quote:
Bad bets should NEVER be made, especially if they are being made to massage your fragile ego!
Never is a long time.

To say that negative expectation bets should never be made would be an incorrect assumption, even mathematically.

If you are a believer in the Kelly Criterion, this comes rather easy. It was first illustrated (to my knowledge) in Alan Wilson's Casino Gambler's Guide, back in like 1959. In that book he gave a theoretical example of how it could work.

Suppose you have a system which produces a 20/1 play in every race and that each such horse wins 1-time-in-10. Thus, you win 10% at $42 = $4.20 $net, an advantage of +110%.

Optimum bet would be 5.5% (advantage divided by odds).

Suppose you also bet an equal amount on the favorite in every race which loses 10% on each bet but wins 30% of the time at $6.00. Thus, out of 100 bets, you now have:

100 bets @ $4 each = $400

10 wins @ $42 each = $420
30 wins @ $ 6 each = $180
----
40 wins = $600 (avg mutuel = $15 or 6.5:1 odds)

$Net has dropped to $3.00, a 50% advantage but now you are winning 4 times as often!

Optimum bet is now 50% / 6.5% = 7.7%.

In other words, you can now safely wager more money.

While the example is a bit rigid and the loss on the favorite inaccurate, it is a perfect example of how a hedge helps you play a better game.


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Old 09-21-2010, 10:43 AM   #9
Robert Fischer
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
There is an important distinction that has to be made here.

When a quarterback throws a bad interception, he may very well have made a bad mistake...but the horseplayer who loses a race, or even a string of races, often has made no mistake at all.
This is sharp. You know what comes to mind initially??
Modern scientific statistical analysis in sports, such as sabermetrics in baseball.
One thing that causes a rift between the "old school" fans, and the new-school sabermetricians, is the tendency to 'normalize' across players and time, and to define actual ability in terms of season or career long stats that have already been compiled. = The end result leading to the inevitable conclusion that there are NO STREAKS in baseball(and no crying), and naturally that the apparent "streaks" seem to be in fact completely correlated to the player's season/career long avgs.

Old school fans know, of course that streaks exist (and clutch hitting!!! ), focus is lost, the track changes, self control wanes, etc...

Very important to know yourself
, and to distinguish between expected consecutive losses, incomplete information, and "slumps".

Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
We often lose at the track not because of mistakes...but because we possess incomplete information about the horses we are betting on.
You're on a roll.
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Old 09-21-2010, 12:51 PM   #10
TEJAS KIDD
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tuffmug
Negative ROI means your method for WP and superfecta sucks and you should stop playing them till you improve your method. Playing them now you are using them as a psychological crutch against a complete beat for the day. Get stronger emotionally and improve your handicapping. Bad bets should NEVER be made, especially if they are being made to massage your fragile ego!


These ROI's for each particular wager can change with one or two photos. Many times, I'll cash my win bet and lose the rest, sometimes I'll cash the tri or super and lose my win bet. The bottom line is that I'm winning. I'm not going to stop betting to win and superfectas because I've shown a negative ROI on those wagers over a long period of time. Some days I'll win because I've cashed a lot of win bets, some days I'll win because I've cashed on trifectas. The bottom line is what counts, whether I show a profit on a particular wager is irrelevant. I'm not using those type of wagers as a crutch. It just happens that sometimes those wagers keep me from losing a particular race/day/week. As I stated, anyone of those wager types can turn from a negative roi to positive with a few different photo finishes.
The point I was trying to make in this post is that the wagers with the losing ROI should not be given up just because I'm showing a negative ROI on those particular wagers. Each wager is all part of the grand scheme of things that helps me along my way both mentally and financially. I was trying to explain that if I dropped those wagers, they could have a butterfly effect on the way I play and in turn, may turn me into a losing player.
If you knew me personally, you'd realize how far from the truth your statements are (Fragile Ego ).
By the way, LOSING bets are not necessarily BAD bets.
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Old 09-21-2010, 01:13 PM   #11
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TEJAS KIDD
For the past several years I've shown a negative ROI in both WP and Superfecta wagering and a positive ROI in both Exacta and Trifecta wagering. Some would say, "Why don't you stop playing WP and Superfectas to increase your overall profit ratio?"

I say "NO"
Quote:
Originally Posted by TEJAS KIDD
It just happens that sometimes those wagers keep me from losing a particular race/day/week.

Mathematically with WP, you are trading some ROI for a higher hit%. This kind of diversification is debatable, but there are some arguments for it, including ability to manage a smaller bankroll without as much risk of random ruin(assuming that OVERALL play w/ all wagertypes is in fact +), and for many it could help mentally as there would be less losing days and streaks.
With the negative Superfecta play, I can't really make a case other than entertainment, and per the hit% argument, WP would be more effective w/out -Superfectas.
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Old 09-21-2010, 01:18 PM   #12
TEJAS KIDD
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Originally Posted by Robert Fischer
Mathematically with WP, you are trading some ROI for a higher hit%. This kind of diversification is debatable, but there are some arguments for it, including ability to manage a smaller bankroll without as much risk of random ruin(assuming that OVERALL play w/ all wagertypes is in fact +), and for many it could help mentally as there would be less losing days and streaks.
With the negative Superfecta play, I can't really make a case other than entertainment, and per the hit% argument, WP would be more effective w/out -Superfectas.
The superfectas ROI could really change with a single photo finish reversal. The way I attack the race, I could crush the TRI and miss the Super, but conversely, I could miss the TRI and crush the super if the 3/4 spots were reversed. I could assume that over the course of a year that maybe 5-10 races could alter these results dramatically.
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Old 09-21-2010, 02:00 PM   #13
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Originally Posted by TEJAS KIDD
The superfectas ROI could really change with a single photo finish reversal. The way I attack the race, I could crush the TRI and miss the Super, but conversely, I could miss the TRI and crush the super if the 3/4 spots were reversed. I could assume that over the course of a year that maybe 5-10 races could alter these results dramatically.
It seems that you have found a way of constructing your bets which allows you to "have your cake, and eat it too." Not only are you showing an overall profit...but you are also having a great time playing almost every race on the card.

If you don't see anything wrong with your approach, then there is no need to change it.

The only troubling thing that I could see is your admission that a day or two of negative results are enough to undermine your confidence in the game...and in yourself.

Not to criticize you in any way...but if you have, as you say, proven to yourself that you are a winner based on years of continuous play...why would you place so much emphasis on the results of a day or two?

Do you have to win every day in order for your self-confidence to remain intact?

Last edited by thaskalos; 09-21-2010 at 02:01 PM.
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Old 09-21-2010, 02:32 PM   #14
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Originally Posted by thaskalos

Do you have to win every day in order for your self-confidence to remain intact?

No.
I just used Saturday night as an example as to why it was necessary to play those win bets. I had an awful night Friday (not sure I cashed a ticket), and without those win bets on Saturday, it would have been 2 nights in a row. My confidence wouldnt be as shot as my bankroll.
Pretty much I take tough beats, dq's and bad trips in stride these days, knowing that the law of averages would work out in my favor. As matter of fact, bad trips, if subtle enough, can reap even bigger rewards the next time.
The only losing year Ive had in the last 17, was the year when I became extremely over confident and bet high volumes carelessly with a rebate. Those days are long behind me.
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