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Old 09-21-2010, 06:16 AM   #16
Pell Mell
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven
I've thought about this a lot and would agree with you that mental skills are the absolute dead-centre key to success in this game. We don't need 'more, better, best' analysis tools or wager decision tools - just pick a good one and master it. We need to master ourselves during the often counter-intuitive process of making decisions on imprecise information, in a risk environment where anything can happen in the short-term, over a long-term series of events.

You may find the following link useful: http://sartinmethodology.com/betting...istent-results

Ted
Thanks for that link. I have been thinking about starting a thread in the hopes of getting an answer to my problem and that article probably answered it as well as anyone could.

I have been playing the same patterns for about 40 yrs and it has withstood the test of time. The problem I've had is that I very often try to separate winning plays from losing plays and many times will eliminate a horse because it just doesn't figure using pace, speed or other handicapping methods. Yet I know from long experience that the most unlikely looking of my plays are the ones that produce the most profit.

As the article states; you may know the pattern works but there is no way of telling which individual bet will win. It's chaos within an orderly process; randomness!

Thanks again......very good info.
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Old 09-21-2010, 10:04 AM   #17
speculus
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Great post...

Quote:
Originally Posted by thaskalos
I hope you don't think that this is a silly answer...because it is something that it took me years to learn.

The most important quality that a horseplayer can have if he hopes to profit in this game, is discipline. Without discipline...even the best handicapper in the world is flirting with financial disaster.

What is discipline?

It is not easy to say what it is...but it is much easier to state what it isn't.

If you change your system or method every time you hit a losing streak...if you cannot accept a losing day at the track without making desperate efforts in order to get even...if you increase your bets when you are losing...if races that looked unplayable at home, suddenly become playable at the track when you are losing...then you don't have the discipline that we are talking about.

And if you are playing with insignificant money whose loss can easily be chalked up to entertainment...that's fine.

But if you are playing for serious money, and you lack discipline...then you are dead.

You just don't know it yet...
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Old 09-21-2010, 01:14 PM   #18
TEJAS KIDD
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Here's one statement you may want to tell yourself when you've gone on tilt.

YOU HAVE THE REST OF YOUR LIFE TO GET EVEN FOR THAT LAST RACE (TOUGH BEAT,DQ,BAD TRIP,ETC....), YOU DON'T NEED TO DO IT BY THE END OF THE DAY.
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Old 09-21-2010, 04:18 PM   #19
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Find niches
Break them down one at a time
Niches may be speed or trainer or surface __________(fill in the blanks.)
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Old 09-21-2010, 05:15 PM   #20
Greyfox
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Stick to a Plan.

Before the races:
1. do your handicapping
2. layout alternative betting schemes

From then on : "Keep your eyes open and your ears closed."
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Old 09-22-2010, 10:20 AM   #21
bks
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Good comments in this thread. Many thanks for that video, which I'll watch with a beverage this evening.

Quote:
Then for some reason you seem to go haywire and start betting tons of different wagers. Things not in your "system" because you get the cant lose mentality from all the success.
If you have identified a system that you believe can be successful, and then make bets that are not dictated by it (whether ahead or behind, makes no difference), think about what that means you are doing.

It means you are doing something you yourself recognize to be suboptimal practice. You are now making bets not primarily because they represent the best calculating you can do, but for emotional (or at least less rational) reasons. You are now doing more hoping and less figuring. By your own determination, if these bets are not supported by the 'system' approach you've decided to adopt, then these bets should not be made. Unless of course you feel like you really need the action (but see below).

I keep coming back to: Why are these bets being made? Aren't the system bets enough? Can't you remember (of course you can) that the reason you're ahead is not because you "can't lose", but because you've applied a system well? So why are they made?

Always for emotional reasons. If they're made too often, there's good evidence that there's an emotional problem there. Tellingly, we try to minimize the importance of these habits in ourselves by calling them "leaks" or using other euphemistic language to describe them, when in fact these habits can lead not only to the potential ruination of a good approach to betting the races, but also one's life (if you don't just blow back your winnings but then also lose the mortgage money, for instance).

The successful system player needs to find something else to do for action than betting. If he can't find anything, then I think one has to consider whether one is gambling compulsively.

And Greyfox, the use of the word "You" is not meant to refer to you, obviously, since I don't know you. It's meant as a generic "you"
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Old 09-22-2010, 10:43 AM   #22
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyfox
Before the races:
1. do your handicapping
2. layout alternative betting schemes

From then on : "Keep your eyes open and your ears closed."
Exactly !!! rbj
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Old 09-22-2010, 10:45 AM   #23
bks
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Double oops. Sorry, Greyfox, you didn't start the thread. Meant teddy.
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Old 09-22-2010, 11:05 AM   #24
teddy
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yes I agree if you bet 6 or 8 hours in a row its very compulsive gambling at many levels. Whether that spills over into my life im not really sure. My gambling time has very little to do with my real world time. Unless it makes me late for something to watch the last race run. haha
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Old 09-22-2010, 11:28 AM   #25
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Greyfox
Before the races:
1. do your handicapping
2. layout alternative betting schemes

From then on : "Keep your eyes open and your ears closed."
that is it in a nutshell
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Old 09-22-2010, 12:40 PM   #26
teddy
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The video was excellent. Depicting betting your method or spot continually with no regard to wins or losses. Beats home the fact that things run in cycles and to take the emotion out of it. A play that is profitable to show and hits at 86% should be bet with the same amount of money.. say $50 and with a substantial bankroll of say 1k should be sufficient to grow significantly without busting out if you don't change the wager amount and or bet other non system wagers. Losing 5 in a row should not change your wager or amount of wager. Just keep the same course.
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Old 09-22-2010, 01:48 PM   #27
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I'm as guilty as anyone in deviating from the path of the straight and narrow. Two weeks ago I decided I wanted action bets and my bankroll tanked. So I decided to bring it back to a healthy state last week. I decided to stick to a spot play I know is profitable and had 6 days in a row of profits which did bring the bankroll back up and more. This spot plays has rules and I just scanned cards from tracks across the country for a play that fit the rules. When there was a borderline play,I passed because I knew there would be many more solid plays popping up.

You would think that we would have learned to just stay on this straight and narrow path after losing so many times when we stray from it, but we still constantly stray. I can only blame myself when I do stray because I know it is a conscious choice of free will and consciously know my ROI will probably suffer.Maybe we look at these "action" bets as the cost of entertainment. But after its done,we aren't so amused because now we have to go back to doing real work again to make up for that cost of "entertainment".
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Old 09-22-2010, 11:02 PM   #28
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In retrospect to what I just said,I think the reason I stray is because the premise of this game is entertainment,not serious work. There are many times when the burden of the straight and narrow is just too confining and lacks relaxation and fun.I don't like to always have to get so serious about earning a positive ROI. So I do blow off some steam with those thoughtless "action" "FUN" bets. Maybe someday a random thoughtless bet will hit for something lottery style. But unfortunately I don't think you can make money in this game consistently without a lot of HARD WORK,which is not my idea of relaxation after working hard in my day job. It's Yin Yang. Pleasure pain. Win lose. Duality.
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Old 09-23-2010, 08:18 AM   #29
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I spent yesterday talking to a friend about why he lost 2k on sun when he got off his method, got behind , chased and blew his wad on bets he never makes. Trying to catch lightning in a bottle. He agreed he had made this mistake and was going back to the straight and narrow. Well he got behind yesterday , was down, went into the same nose dive, started betting wildly, was down 1500 or more.. but got lucky and hit 3 win bets. I told him his luck would run out and he would blow his last 2k. To go back to small bets and he told me he was behind and their was no way he would have gotten back quickly by staying with his method that scrapes $40 a race. Its the same trap, over and over ...Without disapline there is no way to win....
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Old 09-23-2010, 01:50 PM   #30
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YOU cannot win with scared money....Old adage true as ever.
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