Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board

Go Back   Horse Racing Forum - PaceAdvantage.Com - Horse Racing Message Board > Thoroughbred Horse Racing Discussion > General Racing Discussion


Reply
 
Thread Tools Rate Thread
Old 08-31-2010, 09:33 AM   #1
The_Knight_Sky
Registered User
 
The_Knight_Sky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 1,202
Del Mar's new Pick 4 at 20.68% Takeout not working

Average daily handle has declined 6.9%,
from $12,527,694 last year to $11,662,311 in 2010.

There have been 17 fewer races this summer than lastó261 compared to 278.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...-wagering-down

____________________________


In 2011 how about trying it at a rate that has been proven to work: 15%
The_Knight_Sky is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-31-2010, 09:54 AM   #2
David-LV
Veteran
 
David-LV's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Las Vegas, NV
Posts: 1,188
Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Knight_Sky
Average daily handle has declined 6.9%,
from $12,527,694 last year to $11,662,311 in 2010.

There have been 17 fewer races this summer than lastó261 compared to 278.

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-raci...-wagering-down

____________________________


In 2011 how about trying it at a rate that has been proven to work: 15%
The decline in handle will now be known as The Del Mar Solution.

Definition of The Del Mar Solution = Install a race track surface that almost everyone hates and watch our handle go down, then blame the economy.

Yes, Mr. Harper things will not get better until you remove that Poly Junk that you call an excellent surface that you are very happy with.

_________
David-LV
David-LV is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-31-2010, 10:44 AM   #3
Horseplayersbet.com
Registered User
 
Horseplayersbet.com's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 2,585
They had a pick 4 last year with the same takeout. The only difference is that this year they dropped it to a 50 cent minimum.

Less races, and really tiny fields were a turn off to many I'm sure.

Plus there has been a shift amongst medium to big players to bet more money at tracks that charge less for distribution, and less on those that charge more.
__________________

Horseplayersbet.com is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-31-2010, 10:57 AM   #4
The_Knight_Sky
Registered User
 
The_Knight_Sky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 1,202
Quote:
Originally Posted by Horseplayersbet.com

They had a pick 4 last year with the same takeout.
The only difference is that this year they dropped it to a 50 cent minimum.

Correct. Last year's rules are still up at DMTC.
http://www.dmtc.com/season/events/pick-4-rules.php


All the press releases trumpeting the Pick Four at Del Mar this year = much ado about nothing.
The_Knight_Sky is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-31-2010, 11:00 AM   #5
Horseplayersbet.com
Registered User
 
Horseplayersbet.com's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2009
Posts: 2,585
Quote:
Originally Posted by The_Knight_Sky
Correct. Last year's rules are still up at DMTC.
http://www.dmtc.com/season/events/pick-4-rules.php


All the press releases trumpeting the Pick Four at Del Mar this year = much ado about nothing.
We don't know that. They could have been down 12% without it.
__________________

Horseplayersbet.com is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-31-2010, 11:07 AM   #6
Robert Fischer
clean money
 
Robert Fischer's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Maryland
Posts: 20,432
closer look

pick4 is a bad bet to look at for these types of "experiments"

lots of dollars in the pick4 are "gamble dollars" from underfunded players playing at a loss. Then there are properly funded players, and some of them are playing @ a +expectation.

Whenever you have a situation like this BEFORE the takeout change, it is hard to run meaningful experiments. You have a portion of the pool that is willing to gamble and pay for the takeout for properly funded players.
__________________
Preparation. Discipline. Patience. Decisiveness.
Robert Fischer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-31-2010, 12:08 PM   #7
The_Knight_Sky
Registered User
 
The_Knight_Sky's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Posts: 1,202
Quote:
Originally Posted by Robert Fischer

pick4 is a bad bet to look at for these types of "experiments"

True.

But I was thinking more along the lines of how MTH GM/VP Kulina stated earlier this summer that the 15% takeout rates on the Pick Four and Pick Five helps fuel wagering on those races individually.

That makes sense since Multi-race bettors have already handicapped
four or five races in that sequence.

Del Mar's 20.68% Pick Four on the other hand (even at the 50 cent base bet)
is clearly not the same catalyst.

Field Size has to be bolstered next year as well as a reduction in the price of the product. The 20.68% on "all exotics wagers" is already far above the national norm in the Exacta and Rolling Doubles pools.
The_Knight_Sky is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-31-2010, 03:31 PM   #8
Stillriledup
Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
Plastic is the culprit. Believe it.
Stillriledup is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-31-2010, 05:13 PM   #9
rrbauer
Both-hands Bettor
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: NASCAR Country
Posts: 4,390
Not sure what Del Mar's takeout pct has to do with any of this. It's been the same takeout on exotics since 2004 when they raised it 1/2 point for workers comp relief (and then let the raise stick even after the state instituted additional workers comp relief for all businesses including horse racing).

Reducing the cost of entry from $1 to 50-cents causes the following:

1. A few more people will play the P4 but it is extremely uninformed money that overbets favorites, so you have more money chasing the favorite-dominated combinations.

2. The regular P4 players get more bang for their bucks. Hence they can cover the same combination spread for less money; or, cover a larger spread for the same money (than they could for a $1 bet). It may also be that regluar P4 players will play a few more P4's because they can go deeper for the same/less money in P4's that they would've "passed" on previously when it was a $1 minimum.

For someone really interested in how this experiment has fared, looking at the charts for last year, and this year will yield the pool totals on a day-by-day basis. What you would expect this year is last year's totals less some percentage (the overall decline in all handle). If this year's totals are more than last year's adjusted totals, then lowering the bet minimum has been "successful". I doubt that there will be much said by the track about how the experiment fared unless it was at least marginally successful.
__________________
Richard Bauer

Last edited by rrbauer; 08-31-2010 at 05:15 PM.
rrbauer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-31-2010, 05:29 PM   #10
Stillriledup
Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
I actually don't like the 50 cent variety. The pick 4 is the pick 4 for a reason, its hard to hit. If you make it easier, well, why make it easier? If fans need the pick 4 to be easier, why not bet the pick 3?

I like the idea of being able to cash for 100k+if four consecutive races are won by 20-1 shots.

50 cent pick 4 is like the 10 cent super. Why make the super 10 cents? If you can't afford a 1 dollar super why not bet the trifecta or the exacta? The whole idea is to make a bet that can have a boxcar payoff not a bet where a little old lady from pasadena can box 4 numbers for 2.40 and water down a huge payoff with her stray dime.
Stillriledup is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-31-2010, 05:37 PM   #11
Market Mover
Registered User
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Posts: 600
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stillriledup
I actually don't like the 50 cent variety. The pick 4 is the pick 4 for a reason, its hard to hit. If you make it easier, well, why make it easier? If fans need the pick 4 to be easier, why not bet the pick 3?

I like the idea of being able to cash for 100k+if four consecutive races are won by 20-1 shots.

50 cent pick 4 is like the 10 cent super. Why make the super 10 cents? If you can't afford a 1 dollar super why not bet the trifecta or the exacta? The whole idea is to make a bet that can have a boxcar payoff not a bet where a little old lady from pasadena can box 4 numbers for 2.40 and water down a huge payoff with her stray dime.


Then why don't the two 50 cent p4s at Kee show the same decline since it was instituted? In fact, its total handle each racing meet has grown nicely. Why the difference? Inferior racing stock because of the decline in SoCal racing over the years. Del Mar will never reach Keeneland quality.
Market Mover is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 08-31-2010, 05:43 PM   #12
Stillriledup
Veteran
 
Join Date: Oct 2009
Posts: 25,607
Quote:
Originally Posted by Market Mover
Then why don't the two 50 cent p4s at Kee show the same decline since it was instituted? In fact, its total handle each racing meet has grown nicely. Why the difference? Inferior racing stock because of the decline in SoCal racing over the years. Del Mar will never reach Keeneland quality.
You're probably right. I'm not saying the fitty cent variety has hurt dmr i was just saying i dont like it. I agree, its poor stock, plastic and shorter fields.
Stillriledup is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Old 09-01-2010, 11:39 AM   #13
rrbauer
Both-hands Bettor
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: NASCAR Country
Posts: 4,390
Quote:
Originally Posted by Stillriledup
I actually don't like the 50 cent variety. The pick 4 is the pick 4 for a reason, its hard to hit. If you make it easier, well, why make it easier? If fans need the pick 4 to be easier, why not bet the pick 3?

I like the idea of being able to cash for 100k+if four consecutive races are won by 20-1 shots.

50 cent pick 4 is like the 10 cent super. Why make the super 10 cents? If you can't afford a 1 dollar super why not bet the trifecta or the exacta? The whole idea is to make a bet that can have a boxcar payoff not a bet where a little old lady from pasadena can box 4 numbers for 2.40 and water down a huge payoff with her stray dime.
Four consecutive races at Del Mar with 20-1 shots winning....with their short fields they're hard pressed to card four consecutive races that will even have a 20-1 shot.

Dime supers are an entirely different animal and are responsible for growing the popularity of that bet. First dime super that I ever played, I hit...$700 - so even for a dime it was a signer. I think I had about 250 combinations which cost me $25...no way I'm putting $250 into that play.

Finally, I don't think little old ladies from pasadena are playing the horses anymore...isn't that part of the problem? They're too busy feeding their coins into one-armed bandits.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Market Mover
Then why don't the two 50 cent p4s at Kee show the same decline since it was instituted? In fact, its total handle each racing meet has grown nicely. Why the difference? Inferior racing stock because of the decline in SoCal racing over the years. Del Mar will never reach Keeneland quality.
No comparison between Keeneland and Del Mar. As you mention, Keeneland has superior racing. They also have lower takeout. For that matter they have 50-cent Trifectas' as well. They do have one thing in common: Neither one handles big-crowd days particularly well.
__________________
Richard Bauer
rrbauer is offline   Reply With Quote Reply
Reply




Thread Tools
Rate This Thread
Rate This Thread:

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

» Advertisement
» Current Polls
How do you prefer your Coffee !?
Cream and Sugar - 28.57%
30 Votes
Cream only - 20.00%
21 Votes
Black - 41.90%
44 Votes
Decaf - 9.52%
10 Votes
Espresso - 12.38%
13 Votes
Starbucks etc... - 9.52%
10 Votes
Other - 23.81%
25 Votes
Total Votes: 105
This poll is closed.
Powered by vBadvanced CMPS v3.2.3

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 09:44 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.9
Copyright ©2000 - 2020, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.
Copyright 1999 - 2020 -- PaceAdvantage.Com -- All Rights Reserved -- Best Viewed in a modern browser @ 1280x720 Resolution Or Higher
We are a participant in the Amazon Services LLC Associates Program, an affiliate advertising program
designed to provide a means for us to earn fees by linking to Amazon.com and affiliated sites.