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Old 01-31-2008, 04:53 PM   #1
rolling
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Delta Downs

Any bias at this track?
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Old 01-31-2008, 07:57 PM   #2
jk3521
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Yeah, that track is biased towards me!
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Old 01-31-2008, 10:08 PM   #3
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At the one mile distance, favor horses with experience going the mile on three turns.

North Dakota breds have been very strong this past year.
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Old 02-01-2008, 01:30 AM   #4
joeyreb
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I thought they were running out of that long shoot for a 2 turn mile now



Quote:
Originally Posted by facorsig
At the one mile distance, favor horses with experience going the mile on three turns.

North Dakota breds have been very strong this past year.
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Old 02-01-2008, 01:03 PM   #5
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Delta Downs

This track has been driving me nuts the last couple of weeks.
I use Steve Fieros template to set up a 80% odds line .The last couple of weeks i didn,t have the winner 50% of the time in my odds line which is not good.I use Gordon Pine and Cramer elimination factors(high morning line odds,low trainer and jockey wins ,low speed ratings ,running styles)
Although when i do hit it right, the pay offs offset my poor
odds line calculations but not enough to get me into the 25%ROI range.My opinion is the track bias may have gone a little wonky with the weather they have been having in DED.But i can,t figure out what the bias is, i suspect a holding type of surface unless its an exceptional front running horse. Maybe i am just eliminating the wrong type of horse .Anybody got any clues as to why my odds line is so out of whack at DED. Thanks
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Old 02-01-2008, 01:34 PM   #6
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Quote:
Originally Posted by valueguy
.Anybody got any clues as to why my odds line is so out of whack at DED. Thanks
Including the morning line is a dicey proposition at a "minor" track, no offense to Delta with the word minor.

The trainer and jockey colony is also not as "stacked" as other tracks. These factors are showing you that Delta is not the place to be using them by your own experience.

Sounds like you have a good approach, but just not for a "bull ring". Remember, Delta is one of the few tracks with good purses and a SMALL racing surface.

the 6 furlong oval may not be as forgiving for horses with leg problems. The 660 foot stretch may also compromise sound horses who just do not get into gear until the stretch.

The track is also only 80 feet wide, so field sizes are maxed out at 10. And to further confuse you, they run 5 furlong races there out of a chute.

Post position, running position, and recent form are much more important than the trainer or morning line at this track. (IMO).

Jim
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Old 02-01-2008, 02:44 PM   #7
valueguy
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Post position, running position, and recent form are much more important than the tra

Thanks, will change my focus a bit on my eliminations.
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Old 02-01-2008, 03:37 PM   #8
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It is also my impression that jocks at this track "give up" way too easy and do not persevere to get 3rd or 4th. What do you think?
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Old 02-02-2008, 12:50 PM   #9
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DED Jocks giving up.

I really havn,t noticed.I am a win, exactor player so my focus has been on the first 2 horses.If i was a tri or superfecta
bettor then it certainly would be a concern.

Good Hunting.
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Old 02-05-2008, 09:44 AM   #10
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delta downs

I try to read the track bias for the evening (if there is one) and take it from there. Horses with a decent race or two at Fair Grounds are always a good gamble provided its not too far back in the PP line. J/T combos are good. But overall, I would say take the contrarian approach at tracks like this. Most of these animals have a good race or two kickin' around in them. You just have to know how to spot it and when to bet on it.

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Old 02-05-2008, 08:17 PM   #11
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This comparison might be out of line and I have not done any research at Delta Downs but I know at Charlestown the outside post positions are tough to win from, especially going 6.5F. One would think that would hold true at most bull rings but I'd becareful assuming anything when it comes to track biases.
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Old 02-06-2008, 12:06 PM   #12
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Quote:
Originally Posted by The Bit
This comparison might be out of line and I have not done any research at Delta Downs but I know at Charlestown the outside post positions are tough to win from, especially going 6.5F. One would think that would hold true at most bull rings but I'd becareful assuming anything when it comes to track biases.
Hello The Bit:

Absolutely true at CT. Outside horses at 6.5F seem to get caught wide on the first turn losing lengths. You have to get position quickly at 6.5F otherwise it's bascially over. At 7.0F you have a better chance with the outside posts since you have more run to the 1st turn.

Joe
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Old 02-06-2008, 12:29 PM   #13
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I did a some research at CTown about a year and a half ago with regards to post position. At 6.5F, the outside post are def. at a disadvantage. Now, a post position chart doesn't tell the whole story. On a post position chart, such as the one in the Form, those post don't seem to be a big disadvantage and that is because horses wire the fields out of those post or gain a tracking spot two wide. If your horse is a middle of the pack type or stalker type in a race full of other simliar runners and you are breaking from the 6 post or out your a probably doomed.

Another post that is tough to win from was the 1 post going 4.5F unless the horse had speed to make the lead or atleast hold its position on the rail. All too often a horse with no speed ends up being blocked or having to loop the field. I would imagine that might also hold true going 5F at Delta.
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