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Old 09-06-2020, 11:35 AM   #16
letswastemoney
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Honor A. P. would fit better in the Jockey Club Gold Cup where he'd have a longer turn and stretch to unwind his run.

He's a top horse, but he doesn't seem to have a high gear to kick into immediately. He just keeps coming at a gradual pace.
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Old 09-06-2020, 12:25 PM   #17
dilanesp
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Smith joins Eddie Arcaro (1942) and Willie Shoemaker (1964) as jockeys who took off the eventual winner to ride another horse.
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Old 09-06-2020, 01:44 PM   #18
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I thought Honor A. P. ran a very good race. Before the race, Mike Smith said that he was concerned about the start because Honor A. P. had gone sideways in his prior start and Smith said that if he did that again, he wouldn't be able to leave for position, which is what happened and he was next to last.
He was also climbing down the stretch the first time, Mike asked him at the 16th pole and instead of picking it up he fell back to last, he then shifted him out and he picked it a little, though that move got the ground less people excited. He ran ok, I still question his ability.

I actually like another three year old in that barn more.
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Old 09-06-2020, 02:09 PM   #19
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Smith joins Eddie Arcaro (1942) and Willie Shoemaker (1964) as jockeys who took off the eventual winner to ride another horse.
He joined that club 25 years ago.
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Old 09-06-2020, 03:14 PM   #20
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He joined that club 25 years ago.
I thought Thunder Gulch was ridden by Pat Day in the Blue Grass.
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Old 09-06-2020, 07:20 PM   #21
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He was also climbing down the stretch the first time, Mike asked him at the 16th pole and instead of picking it up he fell back to last, he then shifted him out and he picked it a little, though that move got the ground less people excited. He ran ok, I still question his ability.

I actually like another three year old in that barn more.
He did beat Authentic fair and square so surely he is pretty good, no?
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Old 09-06-2020, 07:20 PM   #22
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Smith joins Eddie Arcaro (1942) and Willie Shoemaker (1964) as jockeys who took off the eventual winner to ride another horse.
I think Smith got off Thunder Gulch (in favor of Talkin Man) and Go For Gin (in favor of Holy Bull) in previous Derbys.
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Old 09-06-2020, 10:03 PM   #23
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He did beat Authentic fair and square so surely he is pretty good, no?
I mean, he is a grinder, and when given the trip he is good enough to win a race here or there, I just dont think unless there is some real development from 3 to 4 he is going to be win consistently.

One of the reasons I was high on Authentic was even when passed in the SA Derby he actually fought back for serveral strides before AP pulled away at the very end. At that point I thought he was very talented with maybe a slight questions about the distance.

And just being honest he only had to beat 1 talented horse, Tiz The Law, after Honor AP blew the break and clearly was not going well.

He probably is going to be a bit overrated off this race and yet not sure how many horses will even challenge him in the Preakness. Maybe his stablemate.
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Old 09-07-2020, 10:36 AM   #24
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I think Honor AP is a very good horse. What he lacks is turnkey acceleration. He takes long fluid strides and slowly outruns and wears down other horses.

That said, I'm not sure how anyone can criticize his performance in the Derby.

He got out a little slow, got bumped, and because of the way he runs was slow to get going. He dropped way too far back. He's normally a more forwardly placed horse. Without that start, I think he probably would have been midpack.

After that he lost a ton of ground.

I don't think racing outside was much of a problem Derby day, but his ground loss was extreme enough to think it didn't help him make up all the ground he had to make up after the rough start.

Admittedly, I'm not smart enough to translate that trip into exact lengths, but I feel confident saying that had he gotten out of the gate well, got position midpack, and lost a little less ground because of the better position, he would have been right in the thick of it at the end instead of clunking up for 4th.
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Old 09-07-2020, 12:20 PM   #25
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IMO, ran the best race in the derby.
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Old 09-07-2020, 02:43 PM   #26
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I think Smith got off Thunder Gulch (in favor of Talkin Man) and Go For Gin (in favor of Holy Bull) in previous Derbys.
In both those cases, he was already off the horse for the last Derby prep race.
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Old 09-07-2020, 04:32 PM   #27
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In both those cases, he was already off the horse for the last Derby prep race.
He chose not to ride Thunder Gulch in the Derby.
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Old 09-14-2020, 05:13 PM   #28
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Old 09-14-2020, 06:17 PM   #29
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I assume there must be at least a few nicks experts around here... Any thoughts on what types of brood mares might be best suited for Honor A. P. from a genetic standpoint?
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Old 09-15-2020, 12:07 AM   #30
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I assume there must be at least a few nicks experts around here... Any thoughts on what types of brood mares might be best suited for Honor A. P. from a genetic standpoint?
DISCLAIMER: I KNOW FULL WELL I AM NOT A NICKS EXPERT. But any time you're talking anything A.P. Indy, there's at least one major given you should be able to take for granted--and that's the nick with mares descending from Mr. Prospector.

So I did a little research tonight using the top 25 2020 sires in the U.S. at the moment (according to Blood Horse). Perhaps I can do the same with prominent sires in Europe, Australia, etc., another time.

For reference, here is Honor A. P.'s pedigree: https://www.pedigreequery.com/honor+a+p. As you'll see, he only goes back to Mr. Prospector once, on the sire's side, in 5 generations.

I'll break them down into four categories based on Honor A. P.'s pedigree: 1) 3X5 linebreeding with mares descending from Mr. Prospector; 2) 4X5 linebreeding with Mr. Prospector mares; 3) Mares from largely outcross sires (where Mr. Prospector is at least 4 generations out would would be a 5X5 linebred to Mr. Prospector or where Mr. Prospector is not represented at all in the past 5 generation; and 4) Linebreeding to A. P. Indy., which for some reason unbeknownst to me beyond an undescended testicle, people seem to be reluctant to try. The number before the sire corresponds to their current 2020 sire ranking at Blood Horse.

3X5 Linebreeding with mares sired by grandsons of Mr. Prospector:

4. Speightstown mares
5. Curlin mares
12. City Zip mares
22. English Channel mares
24. Lookin at Lucky mares

4X5 linebreeding with mares sire by great-grandsons of Mr. Prospector:

7. Munnings mares
8. The Factor mares
16. Street Sense mares
19. Quality Road mares
20. Twirling Candy mares
21. More Than Ready mares

Largely outcross opportunities:

1. Into Mischief mares (which would also line up to Storm Cat, which many people are also reluctant to do--I gather for soundness reasons)
2. Uncle Mo mares
6. Midnight Lute mares
9. Candy Ride mares
10. Hard Spun mares
13. Goldencents mares
14. Mucho Macho Man mares
17. Kitten's Joy mares
23. Medaglia D'oro mares
25. I'll Have Another mares

Linebreed to A. P. Indy himself:

3. Tapit (3X3)
11. Constitution fillies (3x4--I nearly left him off the list because his oldest progeny are only 3 years old, but some of his fillies will be hitting the breeding shed in 2021)
15. Bernardini (3X3)
18. Malibu Moon (2X3--too tight)

ANOTHER DISCLAIMER: Again, I apologize that this is largely U.S.-centric. But I wanted to start with a small, manageable pool of stallions.

Last edited by dryrunguy; 09-15-2020 at 12:16 AM.
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