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View Poll Results: What is your most successful handicapping trait/tool?
Patience 40 14.18%
Experience 48 17.02%
Number crunching 18 6.38%
Sheets / Thorograph / TimeformUS / DRF / Equibase, etc. 33 11.70%
Software 45 15.96%
Very specific races/angles 30 10.64%
Jockey/Trainer angles 17 6.03%
Other 51 18.09%
Voters: 282. This poll is closed

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Old 08-11-2018, 11:02 PM   #31
Nitro
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For Selections:
The ONLY tool I use is a very sophisticated Tote Board analysis program. It goes into far more detail then just viewing the Odds (the Win Pool). It generates a composite value for each Entry at each of 3 different intervals during the O.A. betting cycle. At each interval a simple comparison is made between each entry’s value and a Par value which encompasses all of the money in all the betting pools being monitored. Only those entries with values close to Par are considered as potential play regardless of their odds.

For Play or Pass
ONLY if the odds on the selected entries offer potential Value is a wager made. Because there are often more then 2 or 3 selections I generally hedge my bets by either Dutching, or boxing Quinellas, Exactas, Triples and possibly even an occasional Super. I never make a straight Win, Place or Show bet.

Sample:
This is a portion (single betting interval) of the tote analysis for Race 10 @ Del Mar on Sat 8/11/18
Code:
 
1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	0	PAR
10.0	20.0	8.0	3.5	20.0	2.5	4.5	12.0	8.0	8.0	 	 
32.0	38.0	23.0	3.5	47.0	1.5	7.0	37.0	32.0	2.0	 	 
407	240	327	195	323	195	192	307	320	146	####	201
A) Top line = M/L Odds…..B) Middle line = Current Odds…..C) Bottom line – Entry & Par Values.

(Sometimes they just jump off the page.)
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Old 08-11-2018, 11:46 PM   #32
AltonKelsey
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I always feel humbled by Nitro's posts, as even though I have many years experience , I can barely follow what he's talking about, and NEVER understand his examples.


I'm sure it's just me.
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Old 08-13-2018, 02:49 AM   #33
CincyHorseplayer
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The ability to pass. I get deluded and think I can win every race. Only low payoffs make me pass. But I bet races where I believe in nothing but try to extract $$$. No real opinion. Passing is my greatest asset.
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Old 08-13-2018, 04:01 PM   #34
dansan
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other

Hope you didn't vote Other
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Old 08-13-2018, 04:05 PM   #35
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Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer View Post
The ability to pass. I get deluded and think I can win every race. Only low payoffs make me pass. But I bet races where I believe in nothing but try to extract $$$. No real opinion. Passing is my greatest asset.
For me its more along the lines of...

I am deluded and think I can win every race.
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Old 08-13-2018, 06:18 PM   #36
RichieP
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I voted "other":

For me its an honest realization that the game today has changed so much and I have not adapted to it. My betting records showed winning years changing to break even and then losing for the last couple of years.

So I have stopped betting (outside of the occasional small wagers like this weekend when I'm heading to the Spa to meet some friends coming down from Canada).


La Vita si mouve su
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Old 08-13-2018, 08:25 PM   #37
VigorsTheGrey
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Originally Posted by RichieP View Post
I voted "other":

For me its an honest realization that the game today has changed so much and I have not adapted to it. My betting records showed winning years changing to break even and then losing for the last couple of years.

So I have stopped betting (outside of the occasional small wagers like this weekend when I'm heading to the Spa to meet some friends coming down from Canada).


La Vita si mouve su
You aren’t by chance “the RichieP” that works with “the Sarge” are you...?
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Old 08-13-2018, 08:29 PM   #38
CincyHorseplayer
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Originally Posted by jay68802 View Post
For me its more along the lines of...

I am deluded and think I can win every race.
I didn't think I was alone on this issue. No matter how proper it is worded!
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Old 08-14-2018, 06:18 AM   #39
RichieP
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Originally Posted by VigorsTheGrey View Post
You aren’t by chance “the RichieP” that works with “the Sarge” are you...?
Not me VTG
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Old 08-14-2018, 07:15 PM   #40
FakeNameChanged
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro View Post
For Selections:
The ONLY tool I use is a very sophisticated Tote Board analysis program. It goes into far more detail then just viewing the Odds (the Win Pool). It generates a composite value for each Entry at each of 3 different intervals during the O.A. betting cycle. At each interval a simple comparison is made between each entry’s value and a Par value which encompasses all of the money in all the betting pools being monitored. Only those entries with values close to Par are considered as potential play regardless of their odds.

For Play or Pass
ONLY if the odds on the selected entries offer potential Value is a wager made. Because there are often more then 2 or 3 selections I generally hedge my bets by either Dutching, or boxing Quinellas, Exactas, Triples and possibly even an occasional Super. I never make a straight Win, Place or Show bet.

Sample:
This is a portion (single betting interval) of the tote analysis for Race 10 @ Del Mar on Sat 8/11/18
Code:
 
1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	0	PAR
10.0	20.0	8.0	3.5	20.0	2.5	4.5	12.0	8.0	8.0	 	 
32.0	38.0	23.0	3.5	47.0	1.5	7.0	37.0	32.0	2.0	 	 
407	240	327	195	323	195	192	307	320	146	####	201
A) Top line = M/L Odds…..B) Middle line = Current Odds…..C) Bottom line – Entry & Par Values.

(Sometimes they just jump off the page.)
Nitro, at which betting interval was this taken, 15 min, 12 min, 8 min, 5 min? Or which one was closest? No,they all don't jump off the page as this one did.
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Old 08-14-2018, 11:41 PM   #41
Nitro
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Originally Posted by Whosonfirst View Post
Nitro, at which betting interval was this taken, 15 min, 12 min, 8 min, 5 min? Or which one was closest? No,they all don't jump off the page as this one did.
You’re absolutely correct! As I said “Sometimes” the key selections just jump off the page. The obvious objective is to recognize when they do (for a play) and simply pass when they don’t.
Even when they do the other important criteria for a play (as mentioned in “Play or Pass”) is that these key entries must provide sufficient value for the type of bet to be made. With some essential discipline accepting only the desired value can go a long way toward staying in the black over the long haul.

As an example, when I look at the racing in Hong Kong and I come across a potential Dutch play, the results of combined (U.S.ADW) odds of the 3 entries chosen have to provide a greater then 50% profit margin. Otherwise it’s simply a pass. I’ve chosen that condition only because I know from my records over the last 5 years what my O.A. hit frequency is. Now that I’ve scrutinized those records even more based on identifying greater success at specific race Classes & Distances, I’m about to undertake an even bigger stake into the races to be played. The upcoming HK meet opens in early September.

BTW my sample above was recorded at about 4 minutes to post, but in this case they were obvious even at the 7 minute interval. For those who might not get it, just look first at the Par Value (all the way to the right) and then compare it to the individual entry Values of the 4,6,7, and 10.
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Old 08-15-2018, 07:16 PM   #42
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nitro View Post
You’re absolutely correct! As I said “Sometimes” the key selections just jump off the page. The obvious objective is to recognize when they do (for a play) and simply pass when they don’t.
Even when they do the other important criteria for a play (as mentioned in “Play or Pass”) is that these key entries must provide sufficient value for the type of bet to be made. With some essential discipline accepting only the desired value can go a long way toward staying in the black over the long haul.

As an example, when I look at the racing in Hong Kong and I come across a potential Dutch play, the results of combined (U.S.ADW) odds of the 3 entries chosen have to provide a greater then 50% profit margin. Otherwise it’s simply a pass. I’ve chosen that condition only because I know from my records over the last 5 years what my O.A. hit frequency is. Now that I’ve scrutinized those records even more based on identifying greater success at specific race Classes & Distances, I’m about to undertake an even bigger stake into the races to be played. The upcoming HK meet opens in early September.

BTW my sample above was recorded at about 4 minutes to post, but in this case they were obvious even at the 7 minute interval. For those who might not get it, just look first at the Par Value (all the way to the right) and then compare it to the individual entry Values of the 4,6,7, and 10.
you fired the #10?
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Old 08-15-2018, 10:53 PM   #43
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Originally Posted by CincyHorseplayer View Post
The ability to pass. I get deluded and think I can win every race. Only low payoffs make me pass. But I bet races where I believe in nothing but try to extract $$$. No real opinion. Passing is my greatest asset.
Best answer so far. I've watched people wager over 40 years. You would think with simulcasting and all the races run now passing would be easier. People need and want action. P.T. Barnum.
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Old 08-16-2018, 04:07 AM   #44
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my most important tool is knowing ahead of time that i am a terribly rotten handicapper. in the new age of exchange wagering it comes in pretty handy knowing just how bad you are. all i have to do is handicap the race and come up the horse that i like to win and instead of betting the horse to win, i can bet it on the exchange to lose. this method overcomes bad prices that you lay on the exchange because i am a lot worse than the prices they give you.
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Old 08-16-2018, 06:57 AM   #45
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Originally Posted by lamboguy View Post
my most important tool is knowing ahead of time that i am a terribly rotten handicapper. in the new age of exchange wagering it comes in pretty handy knowing just how bad you are. all i have to do is handicap the race and come up the horse that i like to win and instead of betting the horse to win, i can bet it on the exchange to lose. this method overcomes bad prices that you lay on the exchange because i am a lot worse than the prices they give you.
Not disparaging your comment, but could you elaborate a little more on how you do that exactly?
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